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A-Rod on deck to chase history
Updated: Thursday October 04, 2001 8:31 AM
One hundred years of baseball and twice a hitter slugged 60 home runs in a season. Then, starting in 1998, you get four seasons in which it happened six times. Get used to it --- actually, judging by the relatively subdued enthusiasm for Barry Bonds' record chase, perhaps you have already. Sixty-plus, and thus the familiar "Chasing History" watch that begins around May, will happen just about every season. Next up: Alex Rodriguez. Of course, Rodriguez is only 26 and it's no great feat of imagination to expect his career growth chart to keep heading up. He has taken a 10-homer jump this season, from 41 to 51, and you would expect his youth and the switch in home parks from Safeco Field to The Ballpark in Arlington to help explain the improvement. Indeed, you might say the improvement is based solely on the change of address. Rodriguez has doubled his home run production at home, from 13 last year to 26 this year. Rodriguez, however, is taking another leap forward in the power department through a mechanical adjustment made with the help of Rangers hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, one of the best in the business. While A-Rod was crushing 184 dingers in his five full seasons in Seattle he was a front-foot hitter. His head moved slightly forward as he reached forward into pitches, particularly those on the outside part of the plate. Jaramillo has worked with Rodriguez this year on keeping his head still and taking a more balanced approach to the ball, one in which he keeps his hands and weight back longer. Less of a front-foot hitter, Rodriguez is generating even more power and the Rangers believe in time he will make more consistent contact. There's no reason such a good hitter should strike out 125 times, a career high. And, given his work with Jaramillo, there's no reason his home run production should not continue to go up. Bonds: Going, going, gone?One of the more startling sidelights to the home run chase last weekend in San Francisco was that Giants fans took the whole show sitting down. All weekend fans stood as Bonds was announced as the hitter, only to promptly sit back down. This happened even on Sunday, when Bonds' next swing could have produced the record-tying 70th home run. Maybe this says something about Giants fans as they sip their $6.50 glasses of Kendall Jackson or their $6.75 cups of Rolling Rock. Maybe it says something about how sequels never measure up to the original. And maybe it says something about Bonds. Bonds, of course, will be a free agent after this season and the Giants and the entire Bay Area understand that there is a real possibility he might not be back, unless he wants to take a hometown discount. Imagine if in September of 1998 Mark McGwire had been two months away from free agency. No one in St. Louis would ever have entertained the idea that the Cardinals might not re-sign him. This is different. Bay Area fans are different from Midwest fans. Also, the emotional connection between the fans and Bonds is hardly palpable. "He is by far the most popular player we have,'' Giants owner Peter Magowan said. "But you have to understand that we've had success here, five years of success. And I think our fans have confidence that we will do what is necessary to remain successful. Everyone would like to see Barry come back. But if he doesn't, I believe our fans have enough confidence in our track record to expect we will make other moves to keep this team successful.'' Fans also know that the Giants and agent Scott Boras, who represents Bonds, have been positioning themselves for negotiations. Boras said he told the Giants in spring training that Bonds would listen to offers in the range of "Bagwell-Delgado money'' -- about $17-$18 million a year, likely for four seasons -- but said the Giants never responded, not even with a return call. The Giants, upset over Boras' characterization, said their spring talks were exploratory, and that given Boras' track record of bringing his highest profile clients to the free-agent market as well as their own uncertainty about their payroll, were skeptical about getting a quick deal done. Magowan pointed out that the Giants' payroll next season will depend on whether they reach the postseason and how far they advance -- a reality that affects not only current revenue but also next season's because it has an impact on ticket renewal rates (San Francisco has the highest season ticket base in baseball at about 29,000) and ticket price increases. The Giants probably will have a payroll in the $70 million range next season. GM Brian Sabean said he does not agree with paying one player more than 25 percent of the payroll (or $17.5 million of a $70 million payroll). The Giants fear that Boras will run a protracted sweepstakes for Bonds, as he did for Kevin Brown and A-Rod, each of whom signed amid the bright lights and national media of the winter meetings in December. "We'd like to find out through a window early in the process and hope we get that,'' Sabean said. "You can't allow yourself to get hung up where you not only miss out on Barry but also other players who are on the market.'' Meanwhile, Boras is preparing another thick, A-Rod style book with statistics and analysis to distribute among teams interested in Bonds. Teams worried about paying Bonds until or after he's 40 -- he turned 37 last July -- should understand that Bonds breaks molds for hitters the way Roger Clemens does for pitchers. History hardly applies. Until Bonds, only five times had anyone hit 40 home runs at age 37 or older: Hank Aaron hit a record 47 at 37 and 40 at 39, Babe Ruth and Hank Sauer hit 41 at 37, and Darrell Evans hit 40 at 38. Bonds has blown past Aaron's record by 47 percent. The Giants believe San Francisco is the best place for Bonds -- given that he has a home and family there -- but understand Boras' record for shopping clients and nailing huge deals. Meanwhile, it will be fascinating to see where the interest comes from when Bonds hits the market. The New York Mets, for instance, badly need a run producer, but how in the world can GM Steve Phillips rationalize chasing Bonds -- who has raised self-absorption to an art form -- when he rudely dismissed Rodriguez as a "24-and-1'' player? And is Bonds, like Juan Gonzalez and Ken Griffey Jr., smart enough to know that New York would be a bad fit for him? The best guess is that Bonds will be back in San Francisco, but a deal would have to be in place sooner rather than later in the offseason. The LineupOakland's Jason Giambi is likely to win the slugging and on-base titles for a playoff-bound team. Does that sound like proper credentials for an MVP? Time to check the history book. Since they started handing out the MVP award in 1933, 15 players led their league in slugging and on-base percentage while playing for a team that reached postseason play -- all in the pre-wild card days. Of those 15 players, 10 won the MVP. Listed below are the five players who somehow didn't win the MVP with those credentials and the player who did win it. In 1987, a sprained ankle in September probably cost Jack Clark the award. He finished third. Pedro Guerrero also finished third in 1985. In much more curious cases -- and let's admit that not too many people propagated the theology of slugging percentages and on-base percentages back in the '50s -- Duke Snider and Mickey Mantle didn't come close to winning the award. In 1956 Snider finished 10th -- four teammates finished ahead of him. In 1955 Mantle also led the league in triples, homers and walks and led Yogi Berra in every major category except RBIs (he had just nine fewer) and finished fifth. I'm sure the voters had good reason to go with Berra. It's just that none are apparent to me. 1987 1985 1956 1955 Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for
the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a
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