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Scouts' honor

Advanced reports are key to Yankees' success

Click here for more on this story
Posted: Wednesday October 24, 2001 6:17 PM
  View the Tom Verducci Insider Archive

Seattle outfielder Ichiro Suzuki hit .407 against the Cleveland Indians this season. The Tribe still had not figured him out by the start of the American League Division Series, in which he hit .600 against them. Compare that to what the New York Yankees did to Suzuki. They held him to a .286 batting average during the regular season (only Kansas City bottled him better among AL teams), then totally confused him in the American League Championship Series. Suzuki was 4 for 18 (.222) and scored only three runs.

"Give them credit," Seattle coach John Moses said. "They pitched him tough. They never gave him a pitch in the same spot two pitches in a row. Up, down, in, out ... they did a great job of mixing it up on him."

One of the best kept secrets about the Yankees' dynasty is its team of scouts, a sort of special operations unit headed by Gene Michael. No team sends more scouts on the road in September and October than the Yankees, who had nine at the National League Championship Series. They are experts at breaking down opponents, and the New York pitchers execute scouting reports better than any staff in baseball.

This year's will be an old-fashioned World Series, one which will feature -- for the first time since the Yankees swept the Padres in 1998 -- AL and NL champions that did not play each other during the regular season. The reports and recommendations of scouts gain added significance in such a setting.

What the New York scouts noticed about Suzuki is that he devours low pitches and uses his leg kick as a timing device to glide into the ball. They recommended that their pitches not throw low strikes -- "low" being defined as anything low below the bottom portion of the strike zone, usually in the dirt -- and to throw off his timing by changing speeds, staying away from any patterns of pitches, and knocking him off the plate. Yankees Game 1 starter Andy Pettitte buzzed a fastball up and in against Suzuki in his first at-bat to set the tone.

"We took him out of the series," Yankees coach Lee Mazzilli said. "They're a different team without him on base. He just kills low pitches and we stayed away from where he likes it. We really mixed it up against him."

The key offensively for Arizona is Luis Gonzalez, a great fastball hitter who brings a cold bat into the World Series. He hit .238 (9 for 38) over the first two rounds. Still, Arizona won two playoff series without a hot Gonzalez and while averaging only 3.2 runs per game because of key contributions from hitters such as Craig Counsell and Steve Finley, but mostly because of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.

The World Series will be decided by Johnson and Schilling. They have thrown 51 of a possible 54 innings in their six combined starts this postseason. Can they continue on that pace? Or can the Yankees muster enough offense against them to stay close and beat the Arizona bullpen? Though Johnson and Schilling dominate the storyline, the series does raise other questions that might tilt a game or two. Here are a few:

  • Does Randy Velarde play first base for New York in Game 2? Randy Johnson is not only a great pitcher, but he also forces teams' best left-handed hitters out of the lineup. David Justice, Paul O'Neill and probably Tino Martinez will sit, leaving right-handers Chuck Knoblauch, Shane Spencer and, yes, maybe Velarde in the lineup.

  • Do the Yankees add left-hander Randy Choate to the roster? Most of the Diamondbacks' best hitters are left-handed, including their bench players. Choate would seem to be a better fit than Mark Wohlers, who was ineffective against Seattle.

  • Who will Arizona use to get out New York's left-handed hitters in the seventh or eighth inning? This is a key to beating the Yankees. The Mariners (Arthur Rhodes), the Padres (Mark Langston) and the Braves (Mike Remlinger) have failed to get those big outs in postseason play. Bob Brenly's best choice is Greg Swindell. Lefties hit .259 against Swindell, with six homers in 81 at-bats.

  • Will Arizona play for the early lead? They'd better. Since 1996 the Yankees are 37-6 when they score first. Their bullpen is undefeated in 46 consecutive postseason games. New York has wiped out leads or won games against Rod Beck, Armando Benitez, Mike Henneman, Trevor Hoffman, Randy Myers, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Mark Wohlers, but nobody has touched the Yanks' closer, Mariano Rivera.

    The Lineup

    Are two 20-game winners the ticket to a world championship? Maybe not. It hasn't been done in 23 years.

    The Arizona Diamondbacks are only the 10th team since expansion began in 1961 to reach the World Series with two 20-game winners. The previous teams with such a pair of aces won four World Series (the '78 Yankees were the last) and lost five. Here are those teams, their 20-game winners and the record of the 20-game winners in that World Series.

    No guarantees
    Year Team 20-game winners W.S. result Combined W.S. record
    1990 Athletics Bob Welch, Dave Stewart L (0-2)
    1985 Cardinals Joaquin Andujar, John Tudor L (2-2)
    1978 Yankees Ron Guidry, Ed Figueroa W (1-0)
    1973 Athletics Catfish Hunter, Vida Blue W (1-1)
    1971 Orioles Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar,
    Pat Dobson, Jim Palmer
    L (3-3)
    1970 Orioles Cuellar, McNally, Palmer W (3-0)
    1969 Orioles Cuellar, McNally L (1-1)
    1965 Dodgers Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale W (3-2)
    1963 Yankees Whitey Ford, Jim Bouton L (0-3)

    Inside pitches

    The Houston Astros are casting a wide net in their managerial search, with Mike Cubbage, Jim Fregosi, Tony Pena and Jimy Williams in the mix. According to one baseball source, though, keep an eye on Rockies hitting coach Clint Hurdle. He managed in the New York Mets minor league system back when Houston GM Gerry Hunsicker ran it. Hurdle was said to have had an impressive interview with the Diamondbacks last year, and has the presence and command of players that Houston wants. ... Alex Rodriguez's contract may have gotten the most attention, but it's the big money guaranteed to bit players that continues to make little sense. Baseball executives rolled their eyes last week when the Royals gave Brent Mayne, a 34-year-old catcher with 20 RBIs last year, a two-year deal worth $5.5 million. "Those are the kinds of guys you get for one year, $750,000," one executive said. ... The interest Florida GM Dave Dombrowski has shown in the Texas and Toronto GM openings is a tip off that the Marlins a) will have to slash payroll again, or b) have no hope of getting a new ballpark, or c) have a bull's-eye attached to them in baseball's contraction plans. Said a friend of Dombrowski's, "He must know one of those things [is true] for him to be looking to get out." ... Get ready for another winter of speculation about Chipper Jones moving to left field. The key is infielder Wilson Betimit, who turns 20 next month. Betemit is a 6-foot-2 shortstop who could easily move over to third base, giving Atlanta an infield that would include Betemit, 20, shortstop Rafael Furcal, 21, and second baseman Marcus Giles, 23. Now all the Braves need is a first baseman. Wes Helms, 25, failed to nail down the job this summer and will get another shot if Atlanta doesn't find a first baseman, such as Tino Martinez, through trades or free agency. ... Atlanta GM John Schuerholz said he wants John Smoltz back as a closer. Smoltz said he hasn't decided whether he wants to start or close, and will consider all options as a free agent. ... The Mariners gave up 10 or more runs in a game only twice the entire second half of the season. They did so twice in their final eight playoff games. ... Here's Arizona first baseman Mark Grace on the post- Buck Showalter Diamondbacks: "I don't know what happened last year, but half the guys who were here said he was a great guy and half the guys said he was the worst they'd seen." ... Who was the last rookie manager to win the World Series? Ralph Houk of the 1961 Yankees.

    Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his mailbag.


     
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