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Contraction and speculation Where are the game's top players headed?
Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci's Baseball Mailbag appears weekly on CNNSI.com. These are tricky times to be a GM. Hey, wouldn't you try to trade for Vladimir Guerrero right now in a pre-contraction, going-out-of-business deal? And what would the Expos want in return? Large boxes and packing tape? And what about free agents? Would you go after Bret Boone right away or wait to see if Jose Vidro is on the market? Contraction figures to make this winter a very active one, what with two 40-man rosters (and then some) being thrown into the market in some shape or form. The mailbag tells me you're already a step ahead of the game, wondering about the destination points for Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds and the rest of free agency's best. Do you think Jason Giambi will return to the Oakland A's? Obviously, the
Yankees are interested and I know the A's can't match the figures the Yanks will
offer.
I think it's 50-50 that Giambi will be back with the A's. I've talked to players who know him and some say he's gone, that there's no way he's coming back. I wouldn't go that far. I do think the Yankees will target him early in the free-agent period and put on the same full-court press they used to get Mike Mussina last offseason. That, not to mention the money, is going to be hard for Giambi to resist. If Mark McGwire decides to retire, thus freeing up his huge salary, do you
see the Cardinals going after his very good friend Jason Giambi to take his
place at first
base?
It's OK to get your hopes up, because I've been hearing a lot lately about St. Louis making a strong play for Giambi. I've never heard him voice his thoughts about moving to the National League, but I'm assuming his good friend McGwire would let him know St. Louis is a good place to play. I know everyone is saying that Jason Giambi is going to sign with the
Yankees, but I was wondering if Atlanta was going to make a run for him. Given
the Braves' huge lack of production from first base this past season, it seems
as if Giambi would be a good fit for Atlanta. What do you
think?
He'd be a great fit, but there's no indication that Atlanta (and AOL) is going to spend that kind of money. I think the Braves will keep their payroll right around $90 million. What do you think the Giants' chances are of re-signing Barry Bonds? If they
are unable to get him, who do you think they will pursue with the cash they
would then have left
over?
If Bonds truly wants to stay in San Francisco, I think he'll be back with the Giants. If he wants to take the wine-and-dine tour and jack up the bidding into December, he'll be gone. I don't know how to read him on this one, but my guess is he knows he has a great setup in San Francisco -- his family, his godfather and a competitive team are there --so why leave for a couple of extra million dollars a year? Now that the Diamondbacks managed to win the World Series, what do you think
will happen to Byung-Hyun Kim during the offseason? He certainly helped the
D'backs during the regular season and helped them get to the World Series, but
had those two blown saves. Will everything be forgotten or will he be
traded?
He'll be back and he might just turn out to be a great starter next year. Remember, Bret Prinz might have been this team's closer had he not broken down with an injury in the second half. Kim has a starter's background and has always enjoyed it. It seems Boston is looking for a second basemen with speed and leadoff
potential. What free agents out there are worth looking at to fill those needs?
If not someone in the free agent market, who could they trade
for?
Bret Boone doesn't exactly fit the speed/leadoff type mold, but he'd be a 45-50 doubles guy in Boston given the way he hooks the ball. Think of a young John Valentin. Maybe they can work out a post-contraction deal for Jose Vidro. Expect to hear a lot of talk about Pokey Reese, too. Now that the season is over, the annual "will the Dodgers trade Gary
Sheffield?" speculation is starting to brew. They've hung on to him the
past couple of years, but will they finally pull the trigger and, if so, which
teams are the likely suitors? Can trading Sheffield get the Dodgers the help
they so desperately need defensively and at the top of their
order?
One NL executive told me the Dodgers (and agent Scott Boras) would consider moving Sheffield to open payroll room to go after Bonds. And the place Sheffield would love to play is New York, either with the Yankees or Mets. The Mets seemed not to like Sheffield last spring when the Dodgers toyed with the idea of moving him. The Yankees will see about Giambi before they swing a major acquisition like that. I was astonished to see that you think Chan Ho Park will get $15 million per
season after his second-half swoon this year. Living in Los Angeles, I've
observed Park, and any team that gives him $15 million a year is being run by
morons. The guy can't pitch very well unless his catcher is a journeyman who is
an offensive liability to his team. I'd love to see the Mariners get Park. It
will give the other teams in that division a chance to win the AL West. Do you
really think he's worth that kind of
money?
Hey, no way do I think he's worth that, but then again, I didn't think Denny Neagle, Darren Dreifort and Kevin Appier were worth $10 million to $11 million a year. Park is better than those guys and he's easily the most talented pitcher on the market. That's why I think the number will go high, though again, I don't like a pitcher at that salary unless he is a proven, legit No. 1. Is postseason pitching that good or do all of these .350 hitters with
40 homers put up their numbers against the expansion dregs and are really just
average hitters? I saw a lot of abysmal swings during the last several weeks of
the
season.
It starts with the pitching. You remove the No. 5 (and sometimes No. 4) starter and also the last three or four pitchers out of the bullpen. So unless Jay Witasick comes into a blowout, there's nobody against whom you can fatten your stats. I also think some guys get away from their normal game and swing trying to make something big happen. Just as an example, and I don't mean to pick on him, Jorge Posada took bigger, longer swings in the World Series than he normally does. He swung and missed an awful lot. You stated that a dispersal draft is a likely result of contraction, allowing
teams like Pittsburgh to draft Vladimir Guerrero and then trade them for
prospects. I think you're right, even though this doesn't address the real
problem. How fair is it to allow a team like the Pirates to have the first claim
on Guerrero (or Cliff Floyd) if they can't afford to keep him? The end result
will be the same -- the "haves" get richer and the have-nots get
poorer. If baseball is serious about fairly dispersing talent, it should come up
with a way to allow a team like Pittsburgh to draft and keep Guerrero,
perhaps by subsidizing a portion of his salary for some finite period of time.
If baseball is willing to spend over $100 million to buy out two teams, why not
spend a little more and allow the fans in Pittsburgh to enjoy Guerrero in a
Pirates uniform, if only for one year?
I don't like the major league-sponsored subsidy idea, but I agree with your premise about keeping players with teams. That's why you can't look at contraction without looking at the next labor agreement, too. Hopefully there will be more meaningful revenue sharing among the teams -- and a payroll "floor'" to make sure that money goes toward paying players. What are the chances that the Braves will bring back John Smoltz next year?
At 34 years old, with a recent history of arm trouble, how much serious interest
will he draw as a free agent? Also, do you see his future role as a starter or
closer?
I still think there will be a lot of interest in Smoltz. The Braves clearly want him back as a closer and I believe that's what eventually will happen. But I do believe other clubs will appeal to his pride as a starting pitcher. And let's face it, premium starting pitchers get paid more than premium closers. So it's up to Smoltz. Last year, for instance, the Royals contacted David Cone about closing, but Cone still had starting in his blood (not to mention the desire to pitch for a competitive team). Smoltz hasn't tipped his hand yet, so I can't tell you which way he's leaning. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci's covers baseball for the
magazine and is a regular contributer to
CNNSI.com.
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