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Hall of a year Four first-ballot players could be enshrined in 2007
Updated: Tuesday November 20, 2001 1:08 AM
You might want to start booking rooms in Cooperstown, N.Y. for the summer of 2007 right about now. The National Baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremonies that year will include Cal Ripken Jr., Tony Gwynn and Mark McGwire. A fourth first-ballot Hall of Famer, Rickey Henderson, might be joining them, too, though he will be back in uniform next season if somebody offers him a job. And is there room for Jose Canseco as well? (Memo to Jose: The nightclub business in Cooperstown is a rather sedate one.) Would that be the greatest Hall of Fame class ever? First, let's assume Henderson does play even one game next season, postponing his candidacy another year. (Players must be retired for at least five years to be eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot, with winners being inducted the following year.) The last time the Baseball Writers Association of America elected three first-ballot Hall of Famers was way back in ... 1999. That's the year George Brett, Nolan Ryan and Robin Yount were elected. Now consider the 2007 class if Henderson does not come back to play next season. You could easily argue that Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire and Henderson would form the greatest induction group since the Hall opened for business in 1936, when Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson were the original electees. The voting members of the BBWAA haven't elected four first-ballot Hall of Famers in the same year since. Keep in mind that for much of the writers' voting history they frowned upon electing players in their first year of eligibility. Greats such as Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Rogers Hornsby and Harmon Killebrew didn't make it into the Hall on their first try. Thankfully, the tacit initiation rite has virtually disappeared in recent years. First-ballot Hall of Famers have become commonplace -- there have been nine in the last dozen elections. Forgetting first-ballot winners, it is rare for the writers to vote in four candidates of any sort in the same election. It's happened only twice previously: In 1947, when Carl Hubbell, Frankie Frisch, Mickey Cochrane and Lefty Grove made the cut, and in 1955, when DiMaggio, Ted Lyons, Dazzy Vance and Gabby Hartnett became members. Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire and Henderson are no-brainers as first-ballot candidates, just as Ozzie Smith is this year and Eddie Murray is next year. What about Canseco? He has been outspoken about sticking around long enough to hit 500 home runs -- he needs 38 more. He may be running out of chances. Canseco needed to play independent ball last season before a big league club, the White Sox, gave him an opportunity. Showing up on police blotters doesn't help the case for a 37-year-old DH who struck out once every 3.4 at-bats last year (75 of 256). Still, even if Canseco never plays another major league game he's had the kind of career that will test how the modern BBWAA voter (including yours truly) weighs offensive numbers in this age of unprecedented slugging. I admit I was surprised to see how close Canseco's career numbers in many categories are to McGwire's. All these years since the Bash Brothers came together in 1986 (Canseco actually debuted one year earlier), McGwire and Canseco are separated by only seven games, seven RBIs, eight total bases, 21 runs and .003 points on their batting averages. Take a look at their brotherly similarity:
Does this mean that Canseco is every bit the first-ballot Hall of Famer that is McGwire? Of course not. It reminds me of the Kirby Puckett - Don Mattingly argument. Mattingly's final numbers were eerily close to Puckett's, but Puckett had more Hall of Fame-quality seasons than did Mattingly. A players' final career numbers are but a guideline. How those numbers are amassed is more telling. For instance, McGwire finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times; Canseco twice. McGwire won four slugging titles; Canseco one. McGwire made 12 All-Star teams; Canseco six. McGwire won four home run titles (not including the season when he hit 58 while switching leagues); Canseco two. The comparison starts to fall apart. Remember, too, that Canseco last played more games in the field than as a DH when he was 28 years old, back in 1993. He's used a fielding glove in only 128 games in the eight seasons since. He's essentially been a part-time player for as long as he's been a full-time player. Further, let's look at their on-base and slugging percentages:
Now the separation between the Bash Brothers has become obvious. McGwire (.982) ranks 10th all-time in on-base plus slugging percentage. Canseco (.867) ranks 94th, just ahead of Zeke Bonura. (A disclaimer: Walks and homers are such a big part of today's game that 13 of the top 25 OPS marks belong to active players. I'm not quite ready to accept, for instance, that Jim Thome is a better player than was Hank Aaron.) Dave Kingman holds the record for most home runs hit by a player never to be elected to the Hall of Fame (442) among those eligible. He also holds the record for most home runs in his last season (35), a record McGwire approached this year (29). Canseco is more likely to challenge Kingman than he is to join Cooperstown's elite Class of '07. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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