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A step backward Year-After Effect could strike many pitchers in '02Posted: Thursday January 31, 2002 4:18 PM
Mark Mulder, a fabulous young talent coming off a 21-win season, has a very bright future ahead of him. I like his poise, his stuff and his approach to the game. What I don't like are his chances to have another season this year like he did in 2001. That's no knock on the Oakland left-hander. It's a recognition of the powers of the dreaded Year-After Effect. Readers of this column might remember the premise of the Year-After Effect from the past two years: A young pitcher who throws at least 40 more innings than he did the previous season is headed for a decline the following year. Most organizations like to increase the annual workload of their young pitchers by about 25-inning increments. Recent history suggests that pushing that growth chart is asking for trouble. In 2000, this column used the Year-After Effect to identify three pitchers headed for a downturn: Omar Daal, Sidney Ponson and Kevin Millwood. They slumped to a combined 23-45, well below their 1999 composite of 46-28. In 2001, the Year-After Effect pegged three more young pitchers headed for a fall: Albie Lopez, Mac Suzuki and Ryan Dempster. All of them did indeed fall. Lopez sunk from 11-13 to 9-19, Suzuki fell from 8-10 to 2-5, and while Dempster did post similar records (15-12 after a 14-10 season), his ERA swelled from 3.66 to 4.94. That brings us to 2002 and a crowded field in the danger zone. Remarkably, nine pitchers with Opening Day ages between 21 and 26 are at the mercy of the Year-After Effect this season. Here they are, ranked according to their increase in innings last season:
The list does not include pitchers with 40-inning jumps last year who might have come close to their 2001 workload in prior pro seasons (i.e., Matt Morris, Jarrod Washburn, A.J. Burnett). Those pitchers were not in totally uncharted waters. The chart also excludes Terry Adams, 29, Corey Lidle, 30, and Sean Lowe, 31, who would seem to be old enough and physically mature enough to withstand their eyebrow-raising jump in innings last year, though they do bear close watching. So what's to become of the nine who fall within dead aim of the Year-After Effect? Let's consider them on a case-by-case basis:
Remember, too, that run support and downright good fortune are factors, too. Sabathia, for example, gained eight of his 17 wins without getting through the sixth inning. He could pitch well again this year without the same number of wins to show for it. In 1991, another 21-year-old lefty, Steve Avery, made a 58 1/3-inning jump. The next year Avery slumped from 18-8 to 11-11. Did he fall apart? Not exactly. Avery pitched to a better ERA in his Year-After. The good news is that baseball seems to have a thick crop of next-generation pitchers ready to take the baton from Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and the other wise elders of the mound who are still going strong. The bad news is that asking too much too soon from them puts them at risk of taking one step backward. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
