Give Pedro some time

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It's that time of year again. Baseball is back, and so is the 'bag. Let's get right to the questions.

Tom, how concerned should we Red Sox fans be about Pedro's Opening Day nightmare? Obviously, if he's not healthy, we have no chance of a wild card. Is he just lacking arm strength at this point, or is this going to be a long-term problem?
--Eric, Richmond, Va.

Remember, Pedro hasn't pitched since last June (not counting 13 innings when he should not have been out there). I don't think he is finishing his pitches with the same extension he had during his Cy Young seasons. Whether that is due to rust or the effects of his injury is the great unknown. The best young pitcher I ever saw was Dwight Gooden. But as he grew heavier and stronger after rehabbing his shoulder, he lost some of that natural looseness in his arm and consequently lost some of the late life off his fastball. Is that happening to Pedro now that he's gained 15 pounds? Hard to say. I do know this: Don't write off this guy just yet. He's a competitor with a big heart, and you don't rule out guys like that. You have to give Pedro 12-15 starts before you really begin to wonder.

In CNNSI.com's Fearless Predictions, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder were chosen instead of Tim Hudson for the AL Cy Young award this year. Why? Isn't Tim Hudson the most accomplished of the three? Why would that change?
--Joe Smith , San Francisco

You're right, Hudson is the most accomplished of the three. But some people think Mulder and/or Zito have an even higher ceiling than Hudson, if only because they have more classic pitchers' frames. I don't think you can go wrong picking either of them. My feeling is that Zito may have the best pure stuff and is ready to have a huge breakout year.

Do you see Andruw Jones having a career year in 2002 with two of the top bats in baseball (Gary Sheffield and Chipper Jones) hitting in front of and behind him?
--Tommy Easterling, Hartsville, S.C.

I thought Andruw would have busted out bigtime by now. The guy is a tremendous player, but he still tends to lose focus at times and gives away at-bats, especially in stretches when he forgets about using the right side of the field. I don't think he's a classic No. 2 hitter, but if Rafael Furcal gets on base, Jones should see good RBI opportunities. I think Chipper Jones has the ideal spot in that lineup for a monster season.

Of all the young pitchers in the Indians' rotation, which one do you think will have the biggest impact this year?
--Andy Naughton, Lakewood, Ohio

I like Danys Baez to have a solid season. His stuff was terrific last year and so far the transition from the bullpen to the rotation has been fine. He seems suited to start. Keep a close eye on C.C. Sabathia. The short leash is off. The Indians need him to pitch much deeper into games than he did last year. He's a great talent, but I expect his win total to be a little lower this season than last (17).

Last preseason the Pirates' young pitching staff was regarded by most people around the league as having a lot of promise. Injuries to Kris Benson and Francisco Cordova pretty much destroyed that. Does this year's young group have any promise? I think lefties David Williams and Jimmy Anderson showed a few flashes last year. If Benson gets healthy and those guys come into their own, does this team have a shot at going .500?
--JT Warner, Boston

I don't think the Pirates have much hope of playing .500 ball. They need to just get the franchise headed in the right direction first. (Getting rid of Derek Bell was a start.) Benson is a key. Look for him to return in May. He's the only staff member I'd consider to have front-of-the-rotation ability.

Have you noticed that there is a real dearth of closers out there? You have some studs in Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Keith Foulke, but there are also a lot of teams with horrible stoppers (Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, etc.) Is the lack of good closers a trend or an aberration?
--Dave, Oak Lawn, Ill.

I think it's a trend that's been going on since every manager started treating his closer like Dennis Eckersley. There are seven to eight elite closers in the game and most of the rest are interchangeable. I do think the Marlins are in trouble by committing to Braden Looper. Most scouts seem to think he doesn't have the mindset to be a great closer, and his collapse in Tuesday's opener against Montreal looks like a bad omen for the Fish. Say what you want about Antonio Alfonseca -- he gave up hits and wasn't dominating -- but he was comfortable in the ninth inning.

If the Marlins' young pitching pans out, a wild card could be possible. However, it looks as if the Fish will need to add a bat. If Florida is in the race come August, will they be able to acquire a big salary?
--Kyle, Miami

I would not count on it. The buzz around the Marlins is that these are not the times to be expanding the budget. In fact, rumors already are flying about free-agent-to-be Cliff Floyd being on the trade market in the summer. I really like the Marlins' talent. What they have to learn is how to grind it out every game of the season. They need influential veteran players to show them the way.

Baseball has proven over and over again that it could not care less about tradition. But what happened to the Reds' opening the season with the first game of the year? Why are so many teams off on Opening Day? It seems that a once-special day has lost a lot of luster. Do you agree?
--Steve, Mesa, Ariz.

The only problem I have with Opening Day is that it competes for recognition with the Final Four. I was in Atlanta for the Braves' opener on Monday and the park was jammed with people. I do like the idea of ESPN airing one game before all others, but why pick Cleveland at Anaheim as your showcase? It's the one night when you know you can chose a game with an elite pitcher, such as Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens or Pedro.

Tom, I noticed in your Fearless Predictions you picked St. Louis to win the NL Central and the Astros to win the wild card. What do you think about the Cubbies this season? With the addition of Moises Alou, I think they are better than Houston. While Wrigley can be a hitter's paradise, it's nothing like the field formerly known as Enron. Houston pitchers don't have a chance in that bandbox.
--Larry, Baton Rouge, La.

I like the Cubs to be in the race all the way, especially if pitcher Mark Prior can give them a second-half boost. If Houston's young pitchers take a step back in their development, Chicago can take the wild card. The Cubs need Alou to stay healthy and Corey Patterson to prove he's ready.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his Baseball Mailbag.

 

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