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Despite some feel-good stories, keep in mind it's only April

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Has anybody noticed that the two teams slated for contraction (Expos and Twins) are atop their divisions and not looking too bad as of April 24? Is it just me or does Bud Selig have egg all over his face and a big plate of crow on the table in front of him?
--Steve Fowler, Manassas, Va.

The world has noticed what's down is up. It's a cute little story, but the fact is it's been way overplayed by the media. There's no reason for Selig to eat crow. Contraction has nothing to do with how well a team plays in a short window of a long baseball season. The bottom line is that Montreal and Minnesota don't have the revenues to remain viable over the long haul in the post-Camden Yards world of modern baseball. That's an economic fact that has nothing to do with how well a team has played with 88 percent of the season remaining.

Through Thursday, my Red Sox are 12-5 and have clicked on all cylinders. Can they keep this up? I can see Derek Lowe pitching well, but Frank Castillo and Darren Oliver? No way. Are the Sox legit or are they going to break our collective hearts again?
--Frank Peavey, Portland, Maine

Again, check out the April schedule. The Red Sox have as easy a ride out of the gate as anybody. Yes, they were impressive against the Yankees -- but that was their only tough series of the first month and it was at home. I can see the Yankees and Red Sox going 40-17 against the Jays, Rays and Orioles. Give Boston credit for beating the teams it's supposed to beat, but starting May 7 the Sox play the Mariners, A's, White Sox and Yankees 22 times in 25 games. Sparky Anderson used to say you need two months to get a handle on a team. That sounds just about right. I also see such a wide gap in the American League between the good teams and the bad teams (with nothing in between) that several AL clubs will win close to, or more than, 100 games. The Red Sox could be one of them, if they continue to beat up on the bad teams.

Tom, the Padres added key personnel to what was an already very potent offense. Three weeks into the season, San Diego is in dead last in almost all offensive categories. The pitching, which most considered shaky, has been a big surprise. Is the Padres' offense this bad or is opposing pitching just that good?
--Hank Chase, Waianae, Hawaii

The Padres aren't this bad of an offensive team. The schedule definitely has worked against them. April is the official month of knee-jerk reactions. To gauge a team this early you have to look hard at its schedule. San Diego has seen some great pitching. The NL West can throw some serious arms at you, as you've noticed. So give the Padres some time. I think their offense should be fine, at least middle of the pack.

Why doesn't anyone mention high prices as a reason for low attendance at the newer ballparks? Everyone knows walk-up sales are the lifeblood of baseball and increased ticket prices are drowning that out. One quick example: Riverfront Stadium in 1993, best seat: $11.00. Cinergy Field in 2002, same seat approximately: $30.00. New stadium in 2003, best seat: $175.00. Gee, kids, Disney World or a Reds game?
--Don Isenbarger, Xenia, Ohio

I agree with you that it's become tougher to bring a family to a baseball game (that's where the minor leagues have stepped in), but until attendance really drops, I can't say ticket prices are too high. Clubs will charge only what the market will bear. Look at Fenway -- highest ticket prices in the game and the place is sold out most of the season. Now, you can argue baseball is squeezing out the young or spur-of-the-moment fan. But people are still buying plenty of tickets, enough that you can't say baseball is causing a problem for the sport by pricing out so many fans. Baseball draws way more fans these days than "the good old days'' of, say, the 1970s and 1980s.

Are you concerned about Mariano Rivera or are his problems just early-season rustiness?
--Eric Bukzin, Manorville, N.Y.

No, I don't see any reason the Yankees should be concerned. He's still the best closer in baseball in my book. One warning, though: Steve Karsay hasn't immediately made an imprint on this team, and until he does, Rivera will pitch more eighth innings than he should. You keep Rivera as a start-the-ninth specialist and stop taxing him with too many five-out saves and he's virtually unbeatable.

What do you think of Red Sox third baseman Shea Hillenbrand? He's off to a great start in his sophomore season, but does he have the strength to develop into a power hitter and solid defenseman or will he return to his play from last year's so-so season?
--L. Nelson, Carver, Mass.

Hillenbrand is one of the most improved players in the league. I admit I didn't like him much last year. I had him below the league average for third basemen in virtually every category. But he looks much more confident and patient at the plate -- as if he actually has a plan up there now. He's not Eric Chavez, but his numbers should be much better than they were last season.

Why do you, and everyone else, refer to Andruw Jones as an underachiever? It seems that he has a lot of holes in his swing, probably always will, but still puts up 30 HR and 100 RBIs every year, while hitting in the .260-.280 range. Just because he's the best defensive center fielder around doesn't mean he has to hit .320.
--Eli Groner, Jerusalem

If I had told you in 1996 that Bobby Abreu would have the better career over the next six seasons than Jones you would have laughed at me, and rightly so. Jones is a very good player. The only reason he has underachieved is that he's capable of so much more. Is that unfair? Not when you have his kind of talent. His escapades at the Gold Club were embarrassing and indicative of immaturity. I've seen too many lapses from him on the field, including at-bats that he gives away and periods when he refuses to use the right side of the field. Thirty home runs and 100 RBIs mean nothing these days. The standard of excellence for Jones should be much higher. Is he still young? Sure. Only 25. But he's had more than 3,000 at-bats in the big leagues. That's a whole lot of experience. All I know is that people in baseball who've been around a long time expected him to be one of the elite players in the game by now. It still might happen. But it hasn't yet.

I am a diehard Atlanta Braves fan and I am wondering how you can think Bobby Cox is one of the greatest managers of all time? Yes, the Braves have won 10 straight division titles, but a lot of professional managers could have done the same with the talent Atlanta has had. I think Cox is past his prime and the Braves would be better off with a younger manager at the helm.
--Luke Pisarcik, Vandling, Pa.

I wouldn't recommend using birth certificates as a means to qualify people for jobs. (Besides, it's illegal.) The hardest thing to do in managing/coaching is to keep your team on top. Whitey Herzog got credit for being such a great manager, but his teams disappeared from year to year. Cox has kept his team at the top, while all kinds of challengers have made a run at the Braves -- the Mets, Phillies, Expos, Giants, Marlins, etc. That's why he rates among the all-time best. Is he the world's best game strategist? No, I'll admit that. And he complains too much about umpiring. But his record stands on its own.

Do you think Seattle manager Lou Piniella made the right decision by sending Joel Pineiro to the bullpen and handing the fifth starter's job to John Halama? Pineiro's been great in long relief, but it does make you wonder how good he would be as a starter?
--Blake White, Redmond, Wash.

It's a great decision and here's why. As a fifth starter Pineiro would have been skipped in the rotation a few times because of off days. Also, because he's not a big guy, the 23-year-old right-hander probably isn't ready to make 30 starts, throw 190 innings and still be a force through a couple of postseason rounds. Instead, Piniella gets to use Pineiro three times a week while limiting his innings. Then in the second half of the season, Pineiro will likely join the rotation and be one of Seattle's best starters in the playoffs. It's brilliant. It also happens to be the way teams used to break in young starters. Curt Schilling, who started out as a reliever and worked his way into the rotation, told me that's the way it should be rather than just handing a guy a job.

Tom, can you explain what's going on in the NL Central? I know the Pirates are a huge surprise, but even the Reds are above .500. Obviously, it's early, but can you give me your impressions of the division so far?
--Lee, Memphis, Tenn.

It is very surprising. The Cardinals have gotten little help from their starters other than Matt Morris, and Tino Martinez has provided almost nothing. The Cubs haven't hit (though, predictably, Moises Alou can't stay healthy). The Astros pitching has been awful. In short, welcome to Bizarro World. Those are all items you figured should be sources of strength for the Cards, Cubs and Astros. Tough to figure out. I can't make any sense out of it, to be honest. I'm as surprised as you are.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his mailbag.

 

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