Reading the Reds

Despite past trends, the jury is still out on Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Reds have history on their side -- just not recent history. The Reds began this month in first place. Since the wild-card format came into play for a full season in 1996, 28 of the 37 teams who began June atop their division wound up in the playoffs, a 76 percent success rate. In the interest of full disclosure, however, we must inform Cincinnati manager Bob Boone and company that last year four of the seven teams in first place on June 1 were home in October. (That would be the Phillies, Cubs, Twins and Red Sox, who were tied for the AL East lead with the Yankees.)

It was a former Reds skipper, Sparky Anderson, who preached that two months was just about the right amount of time to judge whether a team is for real. That should be enough time, Anderson reasoned, to separate the contenders from the pretenders. As with most of Anderson's observations, it has shown to be a useful rule of thumb.

For instance, 80 teams have reached June with a losing record since 1996. Only two of them advanced to the playoffs -- the 1997 Astros (26-28) and the 1996 Cardinals (24-29). That's not good news for the Phillies (21-32) and the Cubs (21-32), who would have to undergo a record-breaking revival to come from that far below .500 to see October baseball.

Further, did you check the "games behind" column in your June 1 morning paper? Look closely, because only three playoff teams since 1996 started June more than three games out of a postseason spot: the 2000 Giants (seven back), the 2001 A's (eight) and the 2001 Braves (6 1/2 back of the wild card, though they made up an eight-game deficit to win the NL East).

That is not encouraging for Oakland, which would have to top its record comeback of last season by making up a nine-game deficit this time around. Four of last year's June 1 division leaders held first place again this year at the same checkpoint: the Red Sox, Twins, Mariners and Diamondbacks. Not unexpectedly, Atlanta was also in first place at the start of June. That leaves the Reds, who might very well be the biggest surprise in baseball.

Are they, in fact, for real? After all, Cincinnati has gone 19-3 against the Rockies, Brewers, Cubs and Marlins this year, but 6-13 against the Cardinals, Giants and Braves. The Reds' arms have been much better than expected, another tribute to fine pitching coach Don Gullett. Joey Hamilton, Jimmy Haynes, Elmer Dessens and Chris Reitsma didn't sound like a formidable foursome, but those starters began this week with a combined 15-12 record and 3.41 ERA. Coupled with a deep bullpen, the starters have helped Cincinnati post the fourth-best ERA in the league. The offense, meanwhile, has been second rate. Entering June, the Reds ranked ninth in runs and on-base percentage and 11th in home runs. Boone, always an active strategist, has Cincinnati playing little ball to compensate for the underwhelming hitting. The Reds ranked second in stolen bases and first in sacrifice bunts.

So, can the Reds extend their winning ways into the next two-thirds of the season? The key seems to be taking pressure off a starting rotation that doesn't feature a bona fide ace. Either Cincinnati swings a major deal for a power arm such as Bartolo Colon, Scott Erickson or Sidney Ponson , or the offense will have to become more productive (discount the Ken Griffey Jr. trade rumors; GM Jim Bowden could not have issued more ironclad promises that he is not trading the center fielder.) If the Reds' offense does kick into a higher gear -- and a productive Griffey certainly would be at the heart of that upgrade -- then Cincinnati, with its reliable bullpen, will be in it for the long haul.

New role for Ichiro

Lou Piniella of the Mariners has always been a highly underrated manager. He's one of the craftiest men in the business. Piniella once called time out in a playoff game to talk to his runner at first base. Turns out Piniella had noticed the opposing catcher giving away pitchouts by his setup behind the plate. The forewarned runner stole second to set up a run.

Now Piniella is using his smarts to get Ichiro Suzuki more pitches to hit. Though Suzuki won the American League MVP Award last season as a dynamic leadoff hitter, Piniella moved him to third in the order last Sunday.

Suzuki already has been intentionally walked 11 times this year -- one more than in all of last season. One third of the way through the schedule this year, Suzuki has nearly as many total walks (27) as he had all of last year (30). Has Ichiro suddenly turned patient? Not exactly. It seems to be more a matter of pitchers being extremely careful with a bat magician who was hitting .512 with runners in scoring position entering this week.

The Yankees pitched Suzuki tough in a short series last October, frequently busting fastballs on his hands, but also changing the elevation of the pitches, or "changing the eye level'' of the batter, as pitchers call it. But Suzuki has shown there is no one way to get him out.

The move to the three hole -- Suzuki's most frequent spot when he played in Japan -- continues Ichiro's remarkably rapid transition to the big leagues. At the start of spring training last year scouts compared him to Brett Butler, Matty Alou and Ralph Garr, and even Piniella wondered if hard throwers might knock the bat out of his hands. Suzuki, though, showed power and a quick bat when he needed to and has turned out to be a clutch hitter, too. He's a better version of Willie McGee, the former MVP and career .295 hitter. Suzuki can be productive in each of the first three spots in the lineup. The key for Piniella is making sure Ichiro gets to see more pitches.

Low-profile staff in Toronto

You've got to give credit to Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi for being his own man. Ricciardi has hired a batting coach who never played professional baseball (Mike Barnett) and on Monday brought aboard a manager who never played professional baseball (Carlos Tosca). Barnett has done a fine job building the foundation of a philosophy of patience and power at the plate, an approach that worked for Ricciardi in Oakland. Tosca has a reputation as a fiery competitor with terrific organizational skills and strong work ethic. He has the right profile to erase Toronto's reputation as a team that plays soft.

Further, in addition to firing former big league catcher Buck Martinez as manager, Ricciardi also dismissed first base coach Garth Iorg, who played 931 games in the big leagues. Ricciardi essentially replaced him with Brian Butterfield, who, like pitching coach Mark Connor, never played in the big leagues.

Should it matter that key members of Ricciardi's staff have no big league playing experience? Of course not, though the immature Marlins did hold it against former manager John Boles when they began to tune him out last season. Fact is, there's no substitute for experience running games from the dugout. It's been great to see baseball lifers such as Grady Little, Jimy Williams, Jim Tracy and Tosca rewarded for their years of service in the coaching ranks with jobs as major league managers -- and don't be surprised if Tosca succeeds just as the other three have. No one can ever say they didn't earn it.

The flying Fish

Before Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria officially dumped the Expos on major league baseball and moved south, he held many discussions with Marlins manager-to-be Jeff Torborg about the direction of the Florida franchise.

"One of the things I talked to Jeff Torborg about over the winter was running more,'' Loria said. "We took over essentially the same crew and look what we've done.''

The Marlins began the week with a league-high 71 stolen bases in 57 games, putting them on track for 202. That would easily break the club mark of 168 (set in 2000). The Marlins stole only 89 bases all of last year under managers John Boles and Tony Perez. What was the last 200-steal team in the big leagues? Surprisingly, it was the 1996 Rockies. Do all those stolen bases translate into more runs for Florida? Yes and no. The Marlins did rank third in the league in runs at the start of this week, up from 10th last season. But the Marlins are on pace to score 756 runs -- only 14 more than they did last year. That's another indication of the dropoff in NL run-production this year.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his Baseball Mailbag.

 

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