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A glimmer of hope Opponents could benefit as Yankees' rotation strugglesPosted: Tuesday July 30, 2002 12:44 PM
Welcome to Trading Deadline Week, also known unofficially as Trying to Keep Up with the Yankees Week. While the rest of baseball attempts to close in on the well-heeled monolith that is the New York Yankees, opposing clubs also cast a discerning eye on the Bronx Bombers, looking for vulnerability, just as the Lakers' opponents look for weak spots in Phil Jackson's well-oiled machine down the stretch of the NBA season. Are the Yankees striking out too much to win in October? Are they too reliant on the home run ball? Are their two traveling masseuses having off years? Alas, GM Brian Cashman's plan to beef up the team's on-base percentage has succeeded splendidly. And who knew Alfonso Soriano would skip remedial stardom and head straight for MVP honors? All is not lost outside of the Bronx, however. For one, the right shoulder of ubercloser Mariano Rivera -- and thus his availability for four- and five-out saves come playoff time -- is suspect. Moreover, the foundation of the franchise's seven-year postseason run is just wobbly enough to give some hope to those who would be king. Starting pitching, the backbone of the Yankees' championship play, is a wee bit out of alignment. OK, it does seem like a bit of a stretch. New York began this week with three more wins than it had at this time last season, when it finished with 95 victories and proceeded to come within two outs of a fifth world championship in six years. The staff ERA (4.11) was only a smidgen higher than it was at the end of the last year (4.02). But, hey, the NBA saw hope in Kobe's food poisoning and Shaq's big toe. And there are enough questions about the age and health of the Yankees' rotation to give encouragement to other contenders. Roger Clemens, for instance, has battled a groin injury for much of the season and seems to be a potential train wreck every time he has to get off the mound to cover first base or field a bunt. He could be back as soon as this week, though he hasn't been the workhorse he normally is. Clemens, who turns 40 this week, was winless in his last five starts before heading to the DL -- and none of those outings included an effort of at least six innings. His ERA in those cameos was 5.68. David Wells is 39 and has complained about chronic back discomfort while getting league-leading run support. The good news is he's managed to fend off gout. Orlando Hernandez, circa 35, has looked good lately, but has also fought back problems this year. Andy Pettitte, 30, has been the Yankees' best starter of late, having overcome an earlier trip to the DL himself. Mike Mussina, 33, is at last getting prolific run support, which is the only element saving him from a subpar season. Mussina has mysteriously morphed into a six-inning pitcher. Since June 1, he completed the seventh inning only once in nine starts while posting a 4.97 ERA. (Thanks to support from his offense, however, he emerged from those outings 5-1.) His strikeout numbers are down and his average pitches per start -- 99 -- while still fine, represent a career low for the steady right-hander. Then there is the young gun of the group, Jeff Weaver, 25. Since be acquired from the Tigers on July 5, Weaver has stunk up the, um, joint. His ERA with New York qualifies him for an endorsement deal with one of those long-distance companies: 8.00. Speaking of long distance, the right-hander has surrendered nine home runs to the 121 batters he has faced as a Yankee (one every 13). Those are home run derby numbers, especially after he gave up only four to 509 batters with Detroit (one every 127). What gives? Only now is Weaver, 40-52 lifetime, finding out what it means to pitch in a game with any meaning. The Yankees gave up Ted Lilly to get Weaver because they believe Weaver has the goods to become a staff ace as Clemens, Hernandez and Wells begin to act their age. Lilly, they reasoned, would likely top out as a decent No. 3 starter. That may well be true, but for now, Weaver can't be trusted. And if there is one thing the Yankees don't trust, it's a young, untested pitcher come October. The Yankees have played 51 consecutive postseason games without using a starting pitcher with no postseason experience. (The streak dates to 1998, when Hernandez, a veteran big-game hurler on the international front, started Game 4 of the ALCS.) They have used 10 starting pitchers in the playoffs since their run under manager Joe Torre began in 1996. Every one of them except Pettitte has been older than 31. Do the Yankees dare give the ball to Weaver come October to find out if he's up to the task? Not at this rate they won't. With Clemens coming back, Weaver could find himself pitching in long relief. Indeed, for all the noise the doomsayers made about the Yankees getting Weaver and outfielder Raul Mondesi, Weaver might not even start a postseason game. It's more likely that the Yankees' success in the playoffs will depend mostly on Clemens, Wells and Mussina -- afterall, the Yankees are 15-6 when they've gone with those veterans in past postseasons. If those pitchers use the next two months to get healthy and sharp, Bud Selig's competitive balance complaints will begin to ring a little more true. If, however, the age and mileage continues to show on those starting pitchers, the frenetic work by the rest of baseball this week will not have been in vain. Yes, the Yankees are still trying to gain stability in their rotation. But New York's chances depend on the condition of their veteran pitchers come October, not on how they're throwing now. The LineupThe Yankees have used only one starting pitcher younger than 31 in their 78 postseason games under Torre. Here are the team's records in postseason games started by each pitcher since 1996.
A very busy WizardCongratulations to Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith, who was such a wizard with the glove that he once was the highest paid player in baseball following a season in which he hit zero home runs. That was in 1988. Think we'll see that happen again any time soon (for a non-pitcher)? Given the importance of his position, Smith may have been the greatest defensive player of all time. Sure, he won 13 Gold Gloves and led the league in fielding percentage eight times, but what really made Ozzie sparkle is that his teams relied on his brilliance. In 17 years as an everyday shortstop, he never played behind a pitching staff that finished better than eighth in the league in strikeouts. Smith's pitchers kept allowing hitters to put the ball in play, rendering his defense all the more important. He never played behind a staff such as the Mets of the 1980s, when manager Davey Johnson had the luxury of running Kevin Mitchell or Howard Johnson out at short because Dwight Gooden, Sid Fernandez and Ron Darling were getting loads of strikeouts and fly balls. In fact, in Smith's 13 seasons as St. Louis' regular shortstop, the Cardinals struck out the fewest batters in the league eight times -- including 1982 when they won the World Series. In his 17-year run, Smith never played behind a staff that struck out 900 batters and played behind only one pitcher who struck out 200 batters in a season (the forgettable Jose DeLeon, 86-119 lifetime). To contrast, Derek Jeter already has played behind six staffs that have struck out 1,000 batters in a season and three pitchers who cracked 200 strikeouts (David Cone, Clemens and Mussina). Here are how Smith's teams ranked in the National League according to strikeouts during his 17 seasons as a regular shortstop. Also included are the staff leaders in strikeouts.
Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his Baseball Mailbag. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
