 |
| |
|
 |
 |
Taxing situation Players balk at luxury cap, but a short strike is likelyPosted: Friday August 16, 2002 1:50 PM
The positive feelings generated Monday when major league players put off setting a strike date were thrown out the window Friday when the union agreed to walk out on Aug. 30 if there's no labor deal. If owners and players can't reach an agreement by that date, baseball will face its ninth work stoppage since 1972. CNNSI.com spoke with Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci about the latest developments. CNNSI.com: The outlook was optimistic earlier this week. What happened? Verducci: I thought people were overly optimistic. It has become obvious that the owners will not make a deal without a luxury tax, and it must be a meaningful one. In other words, when the players came up with a luxury tax that would apply only to the Yankees, that wasn't good enough. The owners want the tax to affect at least the top seven or eight teams. CNNSI.com: Aug. 30 gives the owners and players two weeks to get a deal done. Is that enough time? Verducci: It wasn't in 1994. Given the history of the way these things go, if the union came up with a deadline that was one week away, two weeks away or three weeks away, the negotiations still take place until the last minute. I think that will be the case here. Negotiations will probably go until the last day, and perhaps the last hour.
CNNSI.com: Why Aug. 30? Is there any significance to that date? Verducci: The only significance is that it allows basically the same timetable for an agreement that they had in '94, which is about a two-week window. The union will tell you the object of a strike date is to inject some urgency into negotiations, to help force a deal. In order to accomplish that, you need enough time to work something out. At the same time, it allows a little bit of time to salvage the season if the union does strike. If the talks lingered on deeper into September and then the players went on strike, the door would be pretty much locked on playing baseball this year. This way, they might strike and settle -- and still have time to finish the season. CNNSI.com: Is the luxury tax the only remaining stumbling block remaining to getting a deal done? Verducci: Other issues need to be hammered out, but I don't think they are dealbreakers. For instance, the details of the drug testing proposal still need work, but I think reaching agreement on that issue is doable. Revenue sharing isn't wrapped up yet because they have to see where a luxury tax falls. One is joined at the hip with the other. So there is still work to be done with regard to revenue sharing, specifically how the money is shared and split up. CNNSI.com: Is there any scenario you can envision in which the players ever accept a reasonable luxury tax? Verducci: I think the players will -- and can -- accept some sort of luxury tax. They're not ruling it out totally. What it comes down to is whether the objections the players have regarding a luxury tax are worth, not just striking over, but shutting the game down for a long period of time. When they struck in 1994, the players thought they were coming back in a week or two. But if they strike this time, they fully understand they might not be playing baseball for the rest of this year, and maybe next year. That kind of doomsday scenario wasn't there in 1994. It played out that way, but nobody foresaw it. This time, when the players weigh the risk/reward of a strike against a luxury tax, they have to keep that scenario in mind.
CNNSI.com: Do you think the players understand how much the fans would turn against them if they went on strike? Verducci: My sense is, and I don't want to be callous about this, it's a very small element to their strategy. I thought Mo Vaughn said it best when he stated this isn't about the World Series, it's about what they have to do as a union. I think you can throw the fans in that analogy as well. Winning a public relations war isn't what the players are interested in. They want to win a labor war. CNNSI.com: Looking into your crystal ball, how do you see this playing out? Verducci: I do think there will be a strike, only because I can't ignore the weight of history. I do think the two sides are closer to an agreement now than they were in 1994. So I believe in a scenario of a short strike. Both sides will play a game of chicken where they stare each other down, the players will strike and then when the consequences hit them in the face, they'll come to a deal. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. |
For in-depth analysis, browse CNNSI.com's multimedia coverage of the labor negotiations.