Sudden impact

New agreement will affect plenty, for better or worse

At the joint news conference Friday announcing a resolution to baseball's labor woes, Donald Fehr made a salient point when he noted that people too easily equated a bargaining session with sport itself -- narrowing it to winners and losers. Shouldn't a successful negotiation enhance the game rather than one side or the other? I like that thought, so I'll resist the easy temptation of reducing a post-settlement analysis to winners and losers. Instead, in the spirit of Fehr's diplomacy, here's a look at how the new agreement might affect some players, teams and executives.

Ivan Rodriguez. His time in Texas is done. Rangers owner Tom Hicks vowed to not exceed the tax threshold, which will be $117 million next year. The Rangers' tax number is $131.4 million for 2002; that's $14.4 million that must be cut from the Texas payroll. Rodriguez's $8.5 million average annual value is a start toward paring down. His mobility behind the plate has decreased noticeably since his back injury, making him a risky long-term signing for any team. He might need to take a one-year deal somewhere to reestablish his market value. Hicks' strategy leaves the Rangers with no room to significantly improve their club next season. Kenny Rogers ($5.25 million) might also have to come off the payroll.

Todd Pratt. OK, the catcher did have a point when he said last week that the union better represents the star players than the little guys. (Pratt's comments, by the way, didn't get nearly the same media mileage as those of owners John Moores, George Steinbrenner and Hicks.) But those days appear to be over. The 50-percent leap in minimum salary helps all young players, with an echo effect on second-year and even arbitration-level salaries touching many. (Imagine a taxi meter that hikes its minimum fare before the wheels roll.) And the revenue sharing might create a better market for second-tier free agents.

And let's not forget the second-tier amateur players, the ones who won't get drafted in the first 25 or so rounds. They might be able to field multiple offers and actually have some say in where they work after high school or college. What a novel idea.

Minnesota Twins. They are officially off the contraction endangered-species list for four years. That gives them ample time to get a stadium-funding package together. And the enhanced revenue sharing means they can keep Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter, David Ortiz and Doug Mientkiewicz. Without it, they might not have been able to absorb the arbitration hit from all of them. It's difficult to think of another team that gets a bigger jolt out of this deal than the Twins.

Oakland Athletics. Oakland might be right behind Minnesota when it comes to benefiting most from this deal. Suddenly, the A's window to win a World Series (or two) is extended. Now they have more money to retain shortstop Miguel Tejada beyond next year. The Royals, Brewers, Devil Rays and such won't turn into contenders in the next four years. But take a low-revenue team with talent on the field and in the front office and give it more money and you have the definition of immediate impact.

George Steinbrenner. He's just been hit with a $69 million luxury tax bill over the next four years -- and that's if he never adds a nickel to his payroll. Add his 34-percent local-revenue-sharing hit and no wonder he has David Boies on speed dial. This system might just make Steinbrenner think twice about taking on Raul Mondesi-type deals, the ones that make other GMs roll their eyes about how he can afford anything. And this can't be good news for Roger Clemens, who won't be getting $18 million to win his 300th game in pinstripes next year. (Don't bet against Steinbrenner skirting the tax with some kind of lifetime-services contract or other gimmick with Clemens. He could sign Clemens, for instance, to a 10-year contract for $15 million, counting only $1.5 million annually toward the tax number.) Steinbrenner, though, won't stop spending entirely. He wants to win too badly.

Top draft picks. The owners gained leverage with the impending rule that a team's first-round pick carries over into the next draft if it fails to sign that player. It's easier to walk away from a draft pick's demands that way.

Jim Thome. Sure, he'd fit great in Boston next year. But the Red Sox first have to deal with extensions for Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez with an eye on a tax they'll be sure to pay. All of a sudden, Thome looks like a tight squeeze. On the other hand, teams such as Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Anaheim -- hardly big players in recent winters -- have some cash to spend on a rare difference-maker for a lineup. Of course, the Indians have a better chance of keeping him, too.

"The key to this whole thing is whether the smaller teams will spend the money," said one GM. "That's the most important element to this whole deal. You don't know how it will play out, but if the smaller teams decide to enter the market for players and spend that money, the system could work. But there's no guarantee that will happen. To me, whether they spend that money or not is the biggest question."

Dean Taylor, Ed Wade, Allard Baird, etc. No more excuses, gentlemen. You're not expected to spend like the Yankees now. But you can't hide behind the "With our revenues we can't compete" excuse, which you don't hear from GMs in Oakland and Minnesota, anyway. Suddenly, smaller-market GMs have tremendous accountability. The most asked question to such GMs will be: "What did you do with the money?" They'd better have answers.

Shyam Das. Uh, nevermind.

Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres. Think of them as recommended "Buy" stocks. Good young pitchers plus the double shot of enhanced revenue sharing and new ballparks give them great hope inside the lifetime of this deal.

Washington, D.C. OK, Montreal Expos. You have five minutes to find a local buyer who thinks this new system actually gives baseball (and stadium funding) a chance in your city. When time's up, move the Expos to the nation's capital.

Bud Selig. Baseball's Harry Truman instantly upgraded his legacy. "The only man to achieve labor peace without a work stoppage" sounds a bit better than "The only man to cancel the World Series." Selig awkwardly but effectively leveraged antiplayer sentiment and owner solidarity that began with the 1994 strike into a very good deal for the owners. The man deserves high praise. Now it's time to get to work on growing the game, not just building consensus among owners. He must develop a better partnership with the union and encourage industry-wide support and promotion of the players (the product) with an end to bleatings about salaries and finances. Selig must get off the phone and out from behind his desk in Milwaukee to do that. One of his greatest strengths is his passion for the game. He should talk about Alex Rodriguez the way he does Joe DiMaggio. He should talk to players at batting cages and sit through nine innings as a fan the way Fay Vincent did.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his Baseball Mailbag.

 

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