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Taking the mound Rotation will have greatest impact on Yankees postseasonPosted: Tuesday September 24, 2002 12:24 PM
His security blanket is a bit smaller. Yankees manager Joe Torre must find a way to negotiate the postseason without bringing in Mariano Rivera in the eighth inning or, in certain situations, having him at all. Torre said he will be hesitant to use Rivera for a third straight day in a postseason series, which would only occur in Game 5 of each round. "I'm not going to push him and risk his future," Torre said. Rivera looked sharp against Tampa Bay Monday night, breaking as many bats as hitters faced (three). He said he loosened in the bullpen quickly and felt "strong. That's how I want to feel." "All he needs now," Torre said, "is to get his sharpness."
(For the record, Torre said he'll announce his rotation late this week, though he cautioned that Hernandez still is in the running.) Torre said key factors in his decision will be how his pitchers have fared at home and against the opponent. All signs point to Clemens (9-1 at Yankee Stadium this year) opening up against the Angels (against whom he is 27-8 with a 2.50 ERA over his career, though with no games this season). The Game 1 starter is especially important in a Division Series because in a four-man rotation he becomes the only one who can start twice. Pettitte (8-2 at home, 2-0 this year against Anaheim, 10-5 in his career against the Angels) would seem to get the nod for Game 2 over Wells (8-4 at home, 1-0 but a 6.52 ERA against Anaheim this year). That would leave a choice between Wells and Mussina for Game 3, which Torre views as the most critical game of a series. He still believes the Yankees' magical run of titles began when David Cone started Game 3 of the 1996 World Series on the road, down two games to none, against Atlanta. Torre set his rotation that way because the veteran Cone was the only one of his starters to have pitched in Fulton County Stadium. Last year Torre handed the ball on the road in Game 3 to Mussina, who had been his best starter in the second half. Mussina responded with a classic 1-0 win over Barry Zito in a game that turned around that series. Torre has never lost a Game 3 of a Division Series (6-0). "I didn't feel any pressure because the odds were so against us anyway," Mussina said. "If we lost the series it would have been because we lost the first two games at home, not because I pitched poorly." Mussina is 10-2 on the road, with no starts this year against Anaheim. Wells is 10-3 on the road. The Angels have a slightly better wining percentage when they face left-handed starters than right-handed. Game 3 again shapes up as Torre's critical call: Wells' 8-1 career postseason record vs. Mussina's series-saving win last year. Though Wells has been the more consistent starter over the course of the season, Mussina lately has regained the feel for his pitches that had been missing for most of the year. "Earlier I felt like I had to grind every single pitch just to get through six innings," Mussina said. "It was work. The game is supposed to be the fun part, and it wasn't. Now I feel like I expect to get through seven innings the way it's supposed to be. It doesn't feel like it's work any more. I feel like I can put the ball where I want it most of the time." Yes, the Yankees lead the league in runs scored, slugging and on-base percentage, but Torre knows shortened rotations and bullpens can make runs scarce come October. "The one thing you want to count on," he said, "is the reliability of your starters." Torre may have more options than any other postseason manager when it comes to those starters, but that also gives him more moves to ponder. Meanwhile, the Yankees won't be pushing their players this week to gain home-field advantage in the ALCS. "We'd like to get it," Jason Giambi said, "but we don't worry about it. It's like Bernie [Williams] said: 'Heck, I hit better on the road anyway.'" Why aren't the Yankees making a big deal out of the home-field advantage? In the postseason under Torre, the Yankees are 27-11 at home and 29-11 on the road. When HR, RBI titles aren't enoughI won't argue too strenuously if someone wants to pick Alex Rodriguez as AL MVP. But history suggests players from losing teams have a chance to win the award only when there are no standout choices from playoff-bound teams -- which helps explain why it hasn't happened since each league began sending four teams to the postseason. More playoff teams equals more choices. Rodriguez is likely to be the outright major league leader in home runs and RBIs. That's been done 18 times since baseball writers took over the MVP voting in 1931. Only seven of those HR/RBI champs failed to win the MVP. In every case they played for teams that didn't make the postseason and lost the MVP to a player from a playoff-bound team. Here they are.
Report card: Hits and missesIn the interest of full disclosure, I admit I missed badly on my picks back in March for rookies of the year (Jon Rauch and Josh Beckett), the NL home run champion (Ken Griffey Jr.), the comeback players of the year (Frank Thomas and Mike Lieberthal) and the NL surprise team (Florida). On the other hand, my selections for AL MVP (Giambi), AL Cy Young (Zito), AL home run champion (Rodriguez), AL surprise team (Anaheim), biggest disappointments (Cleveland and the Mets) and AL manager of the year (Mike Scioscia) hold up well. Also, my most overrated players (Raul Mondesi and Jason Kendall) did nothing to change my mind, and neither did my AL most underrated player (Mike Sweeney). Meanwhile, I hit on five of the eight playoff teams, missing the Twins, Angels and Giants/Dodgers while picking the White Sox, Mariners and Astros, none of whom were terrible. My World Series opponents (Yankees and Cardinals) are still in play. Something tells me picking NFL playoff teams is a much riskier proposition. Extra basesOne of my favorite stats on Ted Williams is that he was the oldest hitter to "decimilize" his age, hitting .388 at age 38. Barry Bonds, who began this week hitting .370 at age 38, would need a 9-for-12 finish to join the Splinter. By the way, Mario Mendoza, who infamously gave his name to the Mendoza Line, broke in at age 23, played nine years in the big leagues and never decimilized his age. ... Jeff Torborg will be back to manage the Marlins next season because owner Jeffrey Loria is not about to pay people not to work for him. But isn't it about time somebody questions all this "great young pitching" we've been hearing about in Florida? How much progress has been made? Marlins pitchers have walked more batters this year than every NL team except Milwaukee and allowed more earned runs than every NL team but San Diego, Milwaukee and Colorado. ... The 20-game winner is alive and well. If Roy Oswalt and Mark Buehrle can each win one game this week, baseball will have eight 20-game winners -- the most since 1978. And even if only one of them makes it to the 20-Win Club, it will be the first time since 1977-78 that baseball has had seven 20-game winners in back to back years. ... You think it's easy forecasting the AL East? Well, actually, yes. The AL East will likely finish in the same first-through-fifth order for a fifth straight season, an unprecedented occurrence for any league or division. And the Red Sox will become the first team ever to be runner-up to the same club for five straight seasons. ... Will apologists please stop excusing Mets pitcher Grant Roberts' behavior with violin music? He was not the "victim" of a woman scorned; her actions have nothing to do with his stupidity. For the record, Roberts began this week 3-0 on grass, 0-0 when he wasn't. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his Baseball Mailbag.
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