Four-warning

Go on short rest or take a gamble, that is the question

Yankees manager Joe Torre likes to call Game 3 the critical contest of a playoff series, especially in the best-of-five Division Series. That may be true enough, but if it's intrigue and action you want, give me Game 4 any time. There's nothing like it in the postseason. That's when managers earn their money and reputations. That's when the typically taut style of playoff baseball goes haywire.

Game 4 is typically the day of reckoning for a manager with regard to what to do with his pitching staff. Does he push his best starters to work on short rest or does he give the ball to his fourth-best starter and cross his fingers? That dilemma helped Mike Hargrove get fired in Cleveland, began Torre's run of October mojo and once ignited such a hideously sloppy game that the mayor of Philadelphia wanted to grab a bat.

Anybody can manage Game 1. Does it take a genius to give the ball to Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine or Randy Johnson? Games 2 and 3 usually are no-brainers, too, when it comes to deciding who should start. But Game 4? Ah, now we're talking the Rocky Coppingers of the world.

Don't remember Rocky? Down two games to one in the 1996 ALCS, Baltimore manager Davey Johnson started Coppinger against the Yankees. Torre countered with Kenny Rogers. Neither pitcher made it through the fifth inning. The Yankees won, 8-4, and put the series away the next day.

Torre started Rogers in Game 4 of all three rounds of the postseason that year. The left-hander lasted two, three and two innings -- and New York won every one of his starts. Can you say destiny? (Torre is 12-2 in Game 4s. The one time he did use a starter on short rest in Game 4 -- Clemens in the 2000 ALDS -- he lost, 11-1.)

The Diamondbacks carried their own Rabbitfoot Rogers last year. They started Albie Lopez, a 19-game loser, in Game 4 of the NLDS and NLCS. Lopez lasted three innings in each outing. Arizona actually won one of those games. (By Game 4 of the World Series, manager Bob Brenly would rather have started Edward Albee than his own Albie, giving the ball to Curt Schilling on short rest instead.)

What to do about Game 4 is the toughest call for a manager, and this postseason is no exception. Well, let's excuse Torre from the debate, considering his pitching choices are so rich he has the makings of another excellent rotation in his bullpen (Orlando Hernandez, Jeff Weaver, Sterling Hitchcock, Ramiro Mendoza, Steve Karsay.)

Do you give the ball to Corey Lidle, Jason Simontacchi, Damian Moss, John Lackey or Miguel Batista or Rick Helling? Their managers seem inclined to say no. Oakland skipper Art Howe trusted Lidle last year against the Yankees in Game 4 with a two games to one lead in the Division Series. Lidle coughed up six runs and was gone before the fourth inning ended. He won't get another chance. Howe said he will stick with his three studs, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, which means bringing Hudson and Mulder back on short rest, if necessary.

While the idea of draining as many innings as possible from your Big Three sounds tempting, understand that recent history indicates that using a pitcher on short rest usually is a bad idea. Of the last 20 times a manager used a starter on short rest against a fully rested one in the postseason, only one of those short rest pitchers, Hitchcock, earned the win. Teams with the less-rested starter are 5-15 in those games.

Since the wild card format began in 1995, pitchers are 5-14 in the postseason when they start on short rest; their teams are 12-20 in such games. If you throw out the three games in which both starters worked on short rest, teams are 9-17 when they push up a starting pitcher.

So there's your dilemma: Do you want Rocky Coppinger or do you want to push your best arm while he is into his eighth month of pitching?

Hargrove faced that kind of choice with a two games to one lead over Boston in the 1999 ALDS. Hargrove actually had such a thin staff his options for a fourth starter weren't pretty, especially after he used Jaret Wright in relief in Game 3. He started Bartolo Colon and, in Game 5, Charles Nagy on short rest. Cleveland lost both games by a combined score of 35-15. Hargrove never managed another game for the Indians.

Likewise, because of injuries, St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa feels as if he has little choice but to use three starters against Arizona. Simontacchi, he figures, will play a key role in long relief. LaRussa is 1-2 in the postseason with the Cardinals when he uses a starter on short rest, winning a Game 4 gamble with Andy Benes in the 1996 NLCS, but losing with Todd Stottlemyre the next day (14-0) and Darryl Kile in Game 4 of the 2000 NLCS (10-6).

Cox might not use Moss, preferring to use Glavine and Maddux on short rest, which he did last year in the NLCS -- losing both times. (Cox is 1-2 with starters on short rest since 1995).

Even if you don't have confidence in that fourth starter, you must weigh the consequences of your No. 1 guy running out of gas early. Remember the confusion between Brenly and Schilling in Game 4 (what else?) of the World Series last year? And you must also consider whether a short-rest start might compromise the pitcher's effectiveness the next time he goes out.

Ah, yes. Nothing sets up drama more than Game 4. The highest-scoring game in playoff history? That was a Game 4 (1999 ALDS). The longest nine-inning postseason game ever played? Yep. Game 4. (1993 World Series). That nightlong struggle between the Blue Jays and Phillies in '93 was the height of Game 4 madness. Stottlemyre and Tommy Greene started that one. Around midnight, having watched a parade of ineffective pitchers, a fan at Veterans Stadium held up a sign that said, "Will Pitch Middle Relief For Food." The Blue Jays finally won, 15-14, prompting then-Philadelphia mayor Ed Rendell to boast he was ready to take some hacks against Stottlemyre.

Is there a Greene or a Coppinger or a Rogers out there this year? Will a manager get roasted for pushing his starters on short rest? When chaos breaks loose this postseason, chances are it will happen in a Game 4. Don't say you weren't forewarned.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Check out his Insider column Tuesdays and Wednesdays throughout the postseason.

 

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