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What the hot stove's got cooking Keep an eye on free-agent pitching moves this offseasonPosted: Tuesday November 05, 2002 12:40 PM
Nothing is more problematic for a general manager this time of year than putting together a starting rotation. Nearly every team needs pitchers and the free-agent market is chock full of mediocrity or worse once you get past future Hall of Famers Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. (Given the next pick, I might take Jamie Moyer, and he turns 40 this month. What does that say?) In other words, as we saw last season, there are many opportunities to be wrong. Teams doled out more than $137 million last year to David Wells, Hideo Nomo, Rick Helling, Pedro Astacio, Terry Adams, Aaron Sele, John Burkett, Sterling Hitchcock, James Baldwin, Ismael Valdes and Chan Ho Park. Only two of them won more than 13 games, pitched 200 innings or posted an ERA less than 4.10: Wells and Nomo. That's a whole lot of decisions and money that turned out wrong. Back into the pool went Helling, Valdes, Adams and Baldwin, joining the Hamiltons, Mlickis, Hayneses, Wrights, etc. of the pitching netherworld. Said one American League general manager, tired of the recycling bin, "I much prefer to give a kid the opportunity of 20 to 25 starts than give them to a guy like Baldwin. At least you keep them on a development track." Still, the chance to find the next Nomo (16-6, 3.39 ERA, but at a two-year cost of $13.75 million) will entice teams on the cusp of contention to take the plunge. Every winter is full of delicate decisions about pitching, but this one seems so dangerous that it tops my list of the five trends to watch this offseason. For your hot-stove league pleasure, here are those trends: 1. The market for free-agent pitching. Actually, give credit to the Phillies for structuring a contract that allowed them to get out from under Adams. All Adams needed to do to earn $5.4 million next year was to finish the year without an arm injury and to throw 170 innings. He fell short by 33 1/3 innings. Teams should stay away from firm multi-year commitments for middle-of-the-rotation, journeyman starters. That market replenishes itself every winter. Can Woody Williams stay healthy? Is Paul Byrd a fluke or a find? Can Shawn Estes ever harness his stuff? And how much would you risk that Shane Reynolds, Jon Lieber and Chris Carpenter can recover from injuries and contribute at some point next year? "It's too early to know what the market's going to be like," an AL GM said. "But we're loading up on six-year [minor league] free agents and keeping an eye on some guys who might get non-tendered [Dec. 20]. January could turn out to be a critical period." 2. The Phillies. They have $23 million burning a hole in their pocket, the savings coming off their 2002 payroll (following the subtraction of Scott Rolen, Robert Person, Doug Glanville and Travis Lee), and with their new ballpark opening in 2004, there's more where that came from. Fixed in their sights are Jim Thome, Maddux, Glavine and David Bell. If they get any two of those four free agents --- especially if one of them is a former Braves pitcher --- Philadelphia will be the chic pick to win the NL East next year. Thome figures to garner interest from Cleveland, Boston and Atlanta as well. Maddux may be headed for Arizona if he doesn't stick with the Braves. 3. Age. There are six former MVPs and Cy Young winners on the market. All of them will be 35 or older by Memorial Day except Ivan Rodriguez, who turns 31 this month, though after catching more than 1,400 games his age also is a factor. Frank Thomas and Jeff Kent (both 35 by the end of next May), Glavine and Maddux (37 next season) and Clemens (41 in August) all test a general manager's ability to predict durability and value as a player enters the end of his career. Who wouldn't want Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and some of the other recent free agents with plenty of baseball ahead of them? This, however, is a very tricky free-agent class in which Thome, 32, might be the only premier player in his prime. The Dodgers bet seven years on a then 34-year-old Kevin Brown, but have been burned with two injury-shortened seasons already. But Barry Bonds, 38, is blowing up baseball's actuarial tables. Surely, Maddux and Glavine would rate better than an Aaron Sele contract (three years, $24 million), but which one would you rather have for that term as they close in on 40? 4. Hideki Matsui. Talks with the Japanese outfielder can begin Nov. 13. He's hitting the majors at the right time: the available free-agent outfielders are a bleak lot, with Cliff Floyd and Steve Finley representing the best of what's out there. Matsui may be a cut above them. He is an established power hitter whose transition to the major leagues has no precedent; Ichiro Suzuki was a spray, contact hitter whose game would translate anywhere. The early buzz has Matsui and a reciprocal TV deal signed and sealed with the Yankees. The Giants, Mets and Mariners would seem to be good fits as well. The Dodgers already have pulled out, which means they aren't worried about Brian Jordan's trade demand. 5. Trades. Toronto has a gem of a chip to play in young shortstop Felipe Lopez. The Yankees have whispered about the availability of Jorge Posada, but they'd have to be bowled over because depth at catcher is way down around baseball. After Rodriguez, who has little interest in the strategic element of his position, the free-agent field has no frontline catchers. If the Yankee re-sign Clemens, they could consider deals for Orlando Hernandez or Andy Pettitte. The Expos may be the most important player on the trade front. GM Omar Minaya is awaiting a budget from Major League Baseball without knowing where the team will be playing in 2004. Pitchers Tomo Ohka, Javier Vazquez and Bartolo Colon would draw strong interest if Minaya needs to clear payroll. Erubiel Durazo, Byung-Hyun Kim, Mike Hampton, Richard Hidalgo and Preston Wilson are some of the other names sure to come up around the hot stove.
Giants owner Peter Magowan, frustrated after watching Barry Bonds get repeatedly walked, asked Bobby Bonds before Game 7 why San Francisco shouldn't bat Barry third and Jeff Kent fourth. Magowan said Bobby told him that Kent didn't respond well to the pressure of having to hit behind Bonds and was more comfortable in front of him. ... Giants insiders insist they want manager Dusty Baker back, but at some point the money becomes an issue of diminishing returns. They say a contract that pays Baker in excess of $4 million a year might preclude them from keeping Kent. Are they better off with Baker and without Kent? Or with Kent and with a cheaper manager? It may turn out to be posturing if San Francisco can find a way to get both contracts done. ... You know that pitch Bonds destroyed for a home run off Francisco Rodriguez in Game 6? No, it wasn't a fastball. It was a changeup that hung and did nothing. Angels pitching coach Bud Black didn't second-guess the pitch, but obviously called the location "a mistake." Said World Series MVP Troy Glaus, "I didn't even know he threw a changeup. And maybe he won't throw any more after that."... The more you watch David Eckstein, the more you have to marvel at a ballplayer who maximizes his ability. Eckstein has such a weak throwing arm the Angels sent first baseman Scott Spiezio to take relay throws from right-center field, instead of Eckstein. And Eckstein's range to his left is woeful, twice costing Angels pitchers in situations in that led to key runs. But Eckstein is so sound fundamentally that he contributes in ways that make up for his athletic deficiencies. In a perfect world, the Angels would have Eckstein at second base and Nomar Garciaparra at shortstop. ... On the other hand, the more you watch Garret Anderson the more you understand why he developed a reputation as a player who doesn't extract the most out of his game. Anderson's failure to run out a ground ball in the ALDS was unforgivable. His unwillingness to hustle after popups and shallow fly balls forced Eckstein to play shortstop and much of left field. Anderson took two walks in 72 postseason plate appearances, none in 32 World Series trips to the plate. He is a terrific player capable of so much more. ... Is Jay Witasick a carrier of postseason disease or what? It's not just because he has a 54.00 ERA in World Series play while allowing 15 base runners and 10 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings. He also is the only man ever to play for teams that lost Games 6 and 7 two years in a row in the World Series. With the Yankees and Giants, his teams are 0-4 the past two years with a chance to clinch the world championship. And then there's Chad Zerbe, something of an anti-Witasick. He has pitched in 84 major league games, including the postseason, and never lost. He is 6-0 in those appearances. ... Memo to Bengie Molina: Catchers are not required to keep a pivot foot planted. Molina's bad habit of trying to backhand pitches without moving his body was Exhibit A of how not to play the position. ... A big congratulations goes out to the umpiring crew at the World Series. Baseball executive vice president Sandy Alderson should be proud that the home plate umpires called the true strike zone (Livan Hernandez was off base to whine about Tim Tschida's zone in Game 3) and the base umpires got nearly every call right. Umpires get enough flak when they miss calls in the World Series, which is why many of them prefer to skip the Fall Classic, but they also should be commended in series like this one when they rise to the occasion. Nice work, guys. ... Finally, Barry Bonds set a World Series record by reaching base 21 times, three more than the old record. Do you know who shared the previous mark? The odd couple of Mickey Mantle (1960) and Marty Barrett (1986). Most amazing of all, while Barrett reached base 18 times for the Red Sox against the Mets, he scored only once. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com. Click here to send a question to his Baseball Mailbag.
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