Another Atlanta ace

Expect Hampton to thrive in new surroundings

Now that Mike Hampton has found his way to a team of his choosing, the Braves, without restructuring his enormous contract (the onus is on the Rockies and Marlins for that), one obvious question remains: Can he still pitch? Give credit to Atlanta for taking a relatively small risk to find out the answer, one which might yield a big reward. Put it this way: The Braves might have themselves an ace at less than the annual cost of what the Rockies are paying Denny Neagle and the Angels are paying Kevin Appier.

Hampton is 30 years old (younger than Pedro Martinez), left-handed and -- here's the key -- healthy. The Rockies sent him to several doctors over the last two seasons to test his arm and shoulder strength, wondering if his pitching difficulties were caused by a physical problem. All the tests showed Hampton was in good health.

Colorado did have interest in keeping Hampton, but, according to a team source, asked him to spread payment of the final two years of his contract over about 30 years. When Hampton declined, the Rockies pushed harder to make the trade with Florida, a deal that Colorado GM Dan O'Dowd had been working on since September.

"I think he's going to be OK, eventually," one Rockies source said of Hampton. "The thing that made him good at sea level is what killed him at altitude: his strong-mindedness. He didn't want to listen to anybody about pitching in altitude. It was, 'Leave me alone. I'll figure it out.' Now he goes to Atlanta and you have to think some of the things [Braves pitching coach Leo] Mazzone says will permeate his ears. When he gets to spring training in Florida and then Atlanta he'll find that his ball sinks again. I think it's a great move on their part."

Braves general manager John Schuerholz said he was encouraged that the late Darryl Kile won 20 games for St. Louis immediately after serving two years in Denver.

"Mike is athletic enough and his delivery didn't change," Schuerholz said about Hampton making a quick return to form. "Our best example is Darryl Kile. I don't want to say 20 games, but we think Mike is capable of doing similar things."

The Braves are on the hook for only $48.5 million over the next six years and will pay Hampton just $5.5 million over the next three seasons.That means Atlanta can re-sign either Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux at up to $12 million per year and, just as it did last year, be paying its top two starting pitchers a combined $18 million annually.

The Rockies are excited about second baseman Pablo Ozuna, who gives them speed, the power upgrade in center field with Preston Wilson replacing Juan Pierre, and a bounceback year from catcher Charles Johnson. Before the Rockies made the trade they learned that Johnson planned on hiring a personal trainer this winter. They believe Johnson became sloppy behind the plate and fell out of shape last season because the Marlins cut back his playing time.

The re-making of the Rockies, meanwhile, continues. Think how different Colorado might be if ownership hadn't killed a deadline deal in 2000 with Toronto, in which the Rockies would have traded Pedro Astacio and Jose Jimenez for Brent Abernathy, Vernon Wells, Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter. Now, tired of Larry Walker's contract and laid-back attitude, Colorado is hoping to convince Matt Williams to accept a deal to come to Denver, where he might earn himself one last big contract by putting up huge numbers in Coors Field. The Rockies would also get Erubiel Durazo, David Dellucci and Bret Prinz.

Also, both O'Dowd and Mets GM Steve Phillips want to pull the trigger on a mutual salary dump deal in which the Rockies would give Neagle to New York in exchange for Rey Ordonez and Jeromy Burnitz. Mets owner Fred Wilpon, however, has refused to endorse the deal.

Second thoughts for the Yankees

Yankees owner George Steinbrenner had a simple question for manager Joe Torre after his team was bounced in the Division Series by Anaheim: "What happened?"

"Boss," Torre said, "we had a bad week."

Now, however, Torre is rethinking the way he operated his team down the stretch. The Yankees and Athletics were battling for the best record in the American League, a distinction that would have earned the winner home field advantage against the other in the ALCS. Of course, neither club got there.

"We wanted home field advantage and we pushed our starters to get it," Torre said. "Looking back, that could have been a mistake. It's the pig in the poke. You start worrying about the second round when really that first round is the one that should scare you."

Likewise, former Oakland manager Art Howe kept his starting pitchers on schedule -- even putting Barry Zito on the hill on the last day of the season in a game that meant nothing -- rather than setting his rotation for the Division Series against the Twins, a team that is extremely vulnerable to left-handed pitching. With Zito, the Cy Young winner, starting only once, Oakland lost in five games to Minnesota.

Torre said his pitchers made too many mistakes with pitches over the plate to Anaheim, though he credited the Angels with getting production throughout their lineup -- a trend that held up over the rest of the postseason.

"The one guy that made the biggest difference was [Scott] Spiezio," Torre said. "He became a much better hitter. Plus, look at [Troy] Glaus. He's a guy that struck out 150 times during the season, but you didn't see that same kind of hitter in the postseason."

Choosing Cy's

Whom would you rather have, Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux? The Phillies and Mets made their choice obvious: Each made a quick offer to Glavine while showing only peripheral interest in Maddux. The Braves, according to one source familiar with their thinking, have a slight preference for Maddux. Schuerholz said he'd like to have both back -- though he realizes that won't happen without huge concessions by the two pitchers -- and that he will continue to conduct parallel negotiations.

Glavine and Maddux both turn 37 next spring. The key for any interested team is to look into a crystal ball and decide which will be more productive over the next three seasons, not just next year. Scott Boras, the agent for Maddux, is trying to convince teams that Maddux will hold up well over the long haul because he's a "touch" pitcher who doesn't throw a lot of pitches.

For instance, when Boras told Phillies executives that Maddux averaged only 120 pitches per nine innings last year, they laughed that their own Robert Person must have averaged about 160. (They were close; Person threw 153 pitches every nine innings.)

And how does that compare to Glavine? The left-hander threw 143 pitches per nine innings. That means Glavine had to exert almost 20 percent more work to get through an average inning than Maddux. Last year Glavine threw 929 more pitches than Maddux, a 35 percent premium.

However, interpret those odometer readings at your own risk. Is Maddux the better signing because he doesn't throw as many pitches? Or is Maddux more of a liability because, with an average of 78 pitches per start, he rarely maintains his stuff past 100 pitches any more?

Conversely, is Glavine a riskier signing because of greater stress on his arm? Or is Glavine, who threw an average of 99 pitches per start last season, stronger and more durable?

Boras is so sure Maddux is the lower risk that he is seeking a five-year contract. In the 84-page bound exhibit on Maddux that the agent is presenting to clubs, Boras projected that Maddux will go 85-45 over the next five years, giving the right-hander 358 career wins, which would put him seventh on the all-time victories list.

In the book, Boras used Don Sutton and Warren Spahn as logical comparisons to Maddux -- "durable, control-type pitchers" who were workhorses through their early 30s and maintained their efficiency in their late 30s.

Boras' work includes taking liberties with the ages of Sutton and Spahn. He lists Sutton as 36 in 1982, though he turned 36 on April 2, 1981. Likewise, he assigns age 36 to Spahn in 1958, though Spahn turned 36 on April 23, 1957.

Let's be more realistic and assume Sutton was 36 for the 1981 season and Spahn was 36 for the 1957 season. Now let's pretend they signed five-year contracts after those seasons -- the exact coordinate where Maddux now stands. How'd they do? Sutton was 69-55 over those five years. Not bad at all. Spahn was a phenomenal 103-63. Both pitchers gave their clubs more than 200 innings in every year of that term. Maddux, who has had a better career than Sutton, could very well fall somewhere between those Hall of Famers.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

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