Offseason winners and losers

Nothing's impacted the hot stove more than the luxury tax

Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens, two of the greatest pitchers ever, are wallflowers on the free agent market. Jeff Kent can't get Craig Biggio money -- circa 1999. The Montreal Expos are the most powerful organization in baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies are the game's big spenders. The sport has a de facto soft salary cap. Welcome, fans, to the bizarre world of baseball in The Luxury Tax Era.

Year One has begun with a long, cold and very weird winter. If the change in landscape wasn't apparent with that Arthur Andersen-certified Mike Hampton trade last month, it was evident at the winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn. this past week, where, as the joke went, business was so slow not even the proverbial mystery team called Scott Boras. The meetings ended with Montreal GM Omar Minaya, Cheshire-like, still dangling Bartolo Colon, Javier Vazquez, Michael Barrett, Jose Vidro, Youppi, John Boccabella, Pepe Mangual, and just about anybody else who ever wore an Expos sweater ... er, jersey.

Not much happened in Nashville, especially for future Hall of Famers looking for a job. The biggest signing was Edgardo Alfonzo (with the Giants for four years, $26 million), who couldn't even get what the middling David Segui got two years ago (four years, $28 million from the Orioles). Ah, but intrigue, if not action, was everywhere. To help you sort through baseball's new world order, here are the winners and losers from the decidedly chilly winter meetings.

WINNERS

New York Mets: How happy were the Mets to rid themselves of Rey Ordonez? They gave Tampa Bay $4.25 million to take the sour shortstop, and got two low-level players in return. When one New York official was asked about the identity of those two players, the response was, "Does it really matter?" No, it doesn't. This was a classic case of addition by subtraction. The happiest person in the Mets organization might be Roberto Alomar, who had such little respect for Ordonez and his lack of work ethic that he didn't want to take pregame groundballs at the same time as his former teammate. Ordonez is the worst offensive starting player in baseball, his fielding suffered last season (because of an appalling lack of focus), he refused to participate in a photo and autograph session with fans in May and then ripped Mets fans, calling them "stupid" in the final week of the season. Now the door is open for super prospect Jose Reyes to win the job in spring training, just as Derek Jeter did with the Yankees in 1996. Remember, too, that the Mets added classy left-hander Tom Glavine and signed Mike Stanton to replace Mark Guthrie as their left-handed setup man.

The Stat Rat Pack: General managers Billy Beane (Oakland), J.P. Ricciardi (Toronto) and Theo Epstein (Boston) all belong to the church of statistical analysis. They like the same players and like to deal with one another. Beane and Ricciardi are operating a shuttle service for players between Toronto and Oakland (Cory Lidle, Billy Koch, Eric Hinske, Jason Arnold, John Ford-Griffin, etc.). Beane battled Epstein (and won) for stathead fav Erubiel Durazo, though the DH's brittleness, body mass and soft attitude scared others, including his former team, Arizona. Durazo turns 28 next month and still hasn't had 230 at-bats in a big-league season. Unlike many of their colleagues, these GMs know what they want and aren't afraid to pull the trigger.

"It's fun," Beane said of sharing a philosophy with GMs who are his friends. "It's the competition. We have similar beliefs and knowing each other allows us to make deals [quickly]. With J.P. and Theo, I can get a deal done in five minutes.''

Dmitri Young and Jermaine Dye: Two of the last players to sign big contracts before the new labor deal was struck. Young (with the Tigers for four years, $28.5 million) and Dye (with Oakland for three years, $32 million) made the right decision in taking the dough rather than taking their chances with free agency. Good move. No way they get that kind of money in this market.

Sandy Alderson: There wasn't a contract bad enough to set off one of his entertaining rants. (See Brown, Kevin; Rodriguez, Alex, et al.) His toughest assignment was deciding a minimum age for bat boys..

Barry Bonds: The combined production of Alfonzo, Ray Durham and Marquis Grissom might be only a bit short of Kent, David Bell and Kenny Lofton. But the Giants still have one move left to fill Bonds' support staff: either Kent shocks the team by taking arbitration or San Francisco trades one of its pitchers to get a bat, such as Juan Gonzalez, Jose Cruz Jr. or Raul Mondesi. (Forget J.D. Drew, whom the Giants believe will not be fully recovered from a knee injury and ready to play everyday until June.)

LOSERS

Collusion conspiracy theorists: Durham, Mike Remlinger, Alfonzo, Jim Thome, Glavine, Bell, Alan Embree, Chris Hammond, Stanton ... the list goes on of players who have signed contracts no one needs to apologize for.

That doesn't mean there's money for everyone, though. Clearly the $117-million threshold has squashed the top of the market, putting a crimp on spending by the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Rangers, teams that often have set the spending pace. "Every [team] suite you visit, it's like that 117 number is plastered on the wall,'' one agent said.

The spigot hasn't been turned off. It's been slowed. The owners have run a four-corners offense all winter, delaying the market (intentionally or not) by waiting to give the Expos a budget (with Montreal showing no speed in dealing players), holding the winter meetings later than usual, keeping Cuban pitcher Jose Contreras away from free agency, hyping the Dec. 20 non-tender date as a major point on the calendar that is worth waiting for, and, with the exception of Embree, making almost no quick offers to retain their own team's free agents. "They're all breathing the same stale air, like in an airplane,'' one agent said. "You've never seen so many players still out there in January like you will this time.''

Bob Boone: The Reds manager must deal with the awkward twilight of Barry Larkin's career (Cincinnati, adding Felipe Lopez, seems bent on putting the 38-year-old shortstop out to pasture somehow; ask Tony LaRussa how the last days of Ozzie Smith played out in St. Louis), the Ken Griffey Jr. trade fallout (how does Boone engender Griffey's support after the skipper wined and dined Phil Nevin in hopes of getting him to accept a deal that would have shipped Junior to San Diego?) and, oh, yeah, the possibility that Pete Rose has designs on Boone's job. If Rose is reinstated, he immediately becomes what Billy Martin was to every Yankees manager.

Atlanta Braves: Glavine is the first free agent the Braves wanted to retain who didn't stay, which makes you wonder how much the team wanted him. Good young pitching is coming, but probably not quick enough to overcome the losses of Glavine, Remlinger, Hammond and possibly Maddux. There's also no payroll room to fix one of the least productive infields among contenders. The Phillies should take their offer to Glavine and give it to Maddux, cementing themselves as the best team in the division.

Kent: How badly did the Giants want to re-sign the former MVP? They offered him about $8 million a year for three years. Biggio signed a better contract in 1999 (three years, $28 million), Alomar also did in 2001 (three years, $27 million) and so did Bret Boone in 2002 (three years, $25 million).

How much of a market correction is in place? Think about those wild and crazy days way back in December of 1999. Greg Vaughn was 34 and had only two straight 100-RBI seasons, three all told in his career. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays gave him $34 million over four years. Kent is 34 now and has a run of six straight 100-RBI seasons. The Giants offered him fewer years and about 30 percent less guaranteed money than Vaughn received three years ago. It is a new, strange world, indeed.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.

 

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