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Little's big task Will the Red Sox skipper manage without a stud closer?Posted: Tuesday January 14, 2003 1:50 PM
If you thought Grady Little had a difficult job last season -- a rookie manager attempting to win in the crucible of Boston while trying to get Manny Ramirez to play, Pedro Martinez to pitch and Tony Clark to hit -- just wait until you see the plate-spinning act he's being asked to pull off this year. Now he has to win by using his bullpen like no champion has in 15 years. I hope he pulls it off. The Red Sox have no closer, having wisely allowed Ugueth Urbina and his cushy job to take a hike to Texas. There are "construction workers" on The Sopranos with tougher jobs. Instead, Little will use Ramiro Mendoza, Alan Embree, Bobby Howry, Mike Timlin, Chad Fox and possibly Tim Wakefield (if he's not starting) as multiple options for the late innings. Such arrangements have been called "closer by committee," but that's mostly been the name for a temporary system until one guy gets hot and the manager anoints him as his closer. Here's hoping that Little sticks to his plan. If Timlin, for instance, happens to close a few games in April, Little shouldn't join the chorus of 29 other managers and start using the veteran right-hander as if he were Dennis Eckersley. Think about it: every manager in baseball uses his bullpen in precisely the same manner, whether he has Mariano Rivera or Juan Acevedo at the end. Imagine all NFL coaches using the 3-4 defense. The copycat school of managing makes no sense when you consider a recent study by the Elias Sports Bureau which found that teams with the modern specialized bullpen don't protect leads any better than teams from 40 and 50 years ago, when closers didn't exist. In fact, the conversion rate is slightly lower. Give credit to Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and advisor Bill James for at least questioning why your best reliever can't pitch when the game is in the balance, not just when a lead needs to be protected. (Although, let's be honest, necessity is at work, too; Boston would rather have Rivera or Trevor Hoffman in the ninth.) Critics point out that with the exception of the 2001 Diamondbacks, who had two historically great starting pitchers, no team since the 1988 Dodgers has won the World Series without a stud closer. Well, what a surprise. That's because the strategy of every team in this era is to designate one guy to get all the saves. The stat is the result of the universally accepted modern strategem as much as the value of a closer. Can the Red Sox pull off this act of swimming upstream? Of course. First, look at what they need to replace by jettisoning Urbina, the prototypical pampered closer. Urbina ... The Red Sox decided Urbina's 40 saves were so important that they left him on the curb for Texas to recycle. Boston knows closers fall off trees. Eric Gagne? Come on down. Jose Jimenez? Go for it. Mike Williams? Forty-six saves, no problem. (Literally; not once did Williams have to come in for a save with the tying run on.) The Rangers even relied on Hideki Irabu (for a while). The save is the most overrated stat in baseball. It is the only statistic that dictates conventional strategy. A three-run lead in the ninth? The Pavlovian manager brings in his closer. If it doesn't work out in the ninth, no matter what the lead or how well the previous pitcher was throwing, the manager can always tell the media, "Hey, that's the closer's job. It's his spot." Translation: "Hey, hey. I'm off the hook." And that's where Little's gumption will be tested. There will be nights when, given his lack of an obvious choice to finish a game, the Red Sox will lose a lead and the media will grill him about why he didn't use pitcher A, B or C. Guaranteed. The challenge for Little is not to cave to these skirmishes. He has to be a Mac kind of manager. (No, not Johnny Mac.) Think different. Believe different. The Selig PlanSome myths about Bud Selig's idea to give World Series home-field advantage to the league that wins the All-Star Game: Why do fewer fans care about the All-Star Game? Because managers (with their Little League mentality about using personnel) and players have told us they don't care as much about it. That message has to be turned around. Go ahead, Bud: put something on the line. By the way, AL manager Mike Scioscia won't need any prodding from Bud to jazz up the 2003 game. The Angels manager, as old school as they come, said he is likely to play most of his starters as many as six innings this July at Comiskey Park. "You play to win," Scioscia said. "That's the game I knew growing up." A second lookSupporters of Ryne Sandberg for the Hall of Fame mention that he was the best second baseman of his era. That's fine if you define his "era" as the nine-year window that began in 1984 and includes two seasons in which Juan Samuel was better. It's also true that second base was a rather thin position during Sandberg's prime. For example, consider his competition in the NL during those nine years. Take the regular second basemen for the other 11 senior circuit teams in those years and you have 99 player-seasons. In how many of those 99 player-seasons did an NL second baseman achieve 15 homers and 60 RBIs? Only seven times: four of them by Samuel and one each by Ron Gant, Bill Doran and Gregg Jefferies. Sandberg reached those numbers seven times in that span. What about Lou Whitaker, the AL's best second baseman then? Only once did he receive an MVP vote, in 1983, when he finished eighth in the balloting. His split against right- and left-handers (.290, .239) was the stuff that sparks a manager to platoon. So Sandberg didn't play in the Golden Age of second basemen. Should he be penalized for that? Absolutely not, just as he shouldn't be enshrined solely based on a comparison to the Jeff Treadways and Chico Linds of his day. You can make a case that other "best at their positions of their era" aren't in the Hall: Jim Rice, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Jack Morris, and pick any shortstop from the 1970s (Larry Bowa, Dave Concepcion, Bert Campaneris, etc.) Back to second base for a moment, though. There have been other occasions when the so-called "best second baseman" of an era didn't get elected to the Hall on the writers' ballot. In fact, only two men who were born after 1903 and played the majority of their career at second base have been voted in by the writers: Jackie Robinson and Joe Morgan. Two in 100 years. Will that change? Almost certainly. Sandberg may see a Gary Carter-, Tony Perez-like gain in votes over the years. If not, three of Sandberg's successors have shots at Cooperstown: Roberto Alomar, who is headed toward 3,000 hits; Craig Biggio, who, despite his shift to the outfield, will retire with more games played at second base than at any other position; and, though he has less of a chance because of his late start at greatness, Jeff Kent, who is working on six straight 100-RBI seasons. The LineupSandberg had no competition among second basemen on the Hall of Fame ballot and will not have any serious competition until five years after Alomar, Biggio or Kent retires. The only second baseman with even a remote shot of getting on any of the next five ballots is Samuel, who could make a courtesy appearance on the next one. Here is a breakdown of the primary positions of the 2003 candidates:
Catchers: 3
How to save $4 millionHere's a story one agent told to explain just how bad the salary market has become for players. Brad Fullmer earned $3.75 million last year ($4 million, if you count his prorated signing bonus) as the DH for the world champion Angels. Fullmer batted .289 with 19 homers and 59 RBIs. He was eligible for arbitration after the season, at which point his salary was likely to rise to $4.75 million or even $5 million. Instead of making a bid to hang on to Fullmer, the Angels cut him. They didn't offer him a contract, setting him free. In arbitration, the Angels would not have been allowed to slash Fullmer's salary by more than 20 percent. As a free agent, though, all bets were off. He was guaranteed nothing. By making Fullmer a free agent, the Angels took a chance that some other club would sign him. Big deal, right? Just find yourself another Fullmer, a guy who drives in 59 runs, can't hit lefties and can't play a position. That may sound obvious to you and me, but teams were unwilling to do that in the past. Guess what? No other team knocked out Fullmer with a huge offer. The Angels wound up re-signing him -- for $1 million. "That's not collusion," the agent said. "That's good business. They took a chance they'd lose him, but they wound up keeping him with a $4 million savings. That's just smart business." Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to CNNSI.com.
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