Close horse

Even in record-setting form, is Smoltz being penned in?

Here is a scary question for opponents of the Atlanta Braves: Is it possible that closer John Smoltz could be better the year after he set a National League record with 55 saves? And here's one that might give the Braves some pause: Is the relief role the best use of one of the game's greatest postseason starters ever? Neither answer is as obvious as you might think.

First, take a look back at how Smoltz began the 2002 season. The right-hander suffered damage to the skin and nail on his pitching thumb in spring training, an injury that caused him nerve irritation as well as difficulty gripping the ball. Smoltz never did properly work his arm into shape in Florida. No matter. He had to be the stopper.

"I didn't pick up a ball last year because I couldn't," he said. "It was the first time in my career I did not pick up a ball in spring training. I was trying to catch up. I was trying to get the innings. I was late, and I went into the big league season [with people expecting] 'All right, now here's the aura of a big league closer.'"

When the Braves traveled north to the begin the season, Smoltz encountered more problems with the thumb. He'd sometimes lose feeling in it in cold weather. He'd be warming up in the bullpen and the ball would fly out of his hand as he began to swing his arm back, or it would slip out of his hand as the arm came forward.

"It's amazing last year that I did not launch it five, six, seven times [in games]," he said.

Smoltz gave up eight runs to Montreal in his second appearance of the season, but despite Smoltz's limited work in Florida, manager Bobby Cox used him often -- once in four consecutive games -- and early. This was before Cox knew he could trust the seventh and eighth innings to Chris Hammond and Mike Remlinger.

"I had no chance," Smoltz said, referring to an April in which he gave up nine runs in 12 2/3 innings. "I was most proud of fighting through that month. I was going crazy. I had to learn different things. It's just amazing to think back, getting 55 saves after the beginning. Now it's, 'OK, go do it again.'

"When you look at my season, I had hardly any saves in the first month and hardly any saves at the end. I got everything in the middle. And Bobby learned because he was putting nobody but me in there in the first 35 games and then when he started putting in [the other relievers] the rest is history."

Smoltz recorded two saves in the first 15 games, six in the last 24, and 47 in the 123 games in between. After May 29, with his arm at full strength, Smoltz was nearly perfect, saving 41 games in 42 tries. He did not allow a run in September.

Look, however, at what happened to Atlanta in the postseason: The Braves were bounced by San Francisco in five games with Smoltz pitching only 3 1/3 innings in non-save, non-crucial situations. That's the problem with being a closer in the postseason: You prove your importance only if other pitchers get the game to you. The Braves pitchers did not deliver.

"And the year before was the same way," Smoltz said.

Smoltz was rendered meaningless in an NLCS loss to Arizona in 2001, watching Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling pitch their team into the World Series the way Smoltz himself used to do it. In two seasons as a closer, Smoltz has pitched only 10 1/3 innings in three postseason series, with the Braves losing two of them. He has only two saves. We're talking about someone who was 12-4 as a starter in the postseason.

"I probably pitched 27, 28 postseason games, and if you break it down I literally could have won all but one, which is so amazing that time of year," he said. "I'm what, 12-4? But I could easily have had 20 wins and that is mind-boggling. And that will never be taken away from me."

Smoltz said he had several surgical procedures on his nail, part of which he said is unable to grow back, and is optimistic the problem has been corrected. Does this mean he'll improve on his 55 saves? Not likely, even if he pitches better. Saves, after all, are largely a product of setup men preserving leads and a closer's team playing many close games. With Remlinger and Hammond gone, Cox will have to manage the seventh and eighth innings concerned more about matching up against right- and left-handed hitters than he was last year. He'll have to juggle Ray King, Mike Venafro and Roberto Hernandez, for instance, to get the lead to Smoltz. Jason Marquis will also be in the mix if he doesn't win the fifth starter's job.

And even with 55 saves, the Braves aren't guaranteed to be making the best use of Smoltz. Last year, for instance, they won their division by 19 games. He wasn't that kind of a difference-maker. Only 16 of Smoltz's 55 saves were one-run saves; 17 of them were by three or four runs. Then he watched helplessly from the bullpen as his team took a first-round playoff exit.

Look at it this way: If you had to have someone to pitch the last inning of the seventh game of a postseason series, Smoltz would be one of two or three pitchers you would pick. And if you had to pick someone to start that hypothetical Game 7, Smoltz would be one of those two or three pitchers, too (provided he was starting all season). That is an amazing testament to his heart and versatility.

Now ask yourself this: Is it more likely that your starting pitcher will influence the outcome of that game or more likely that you will have a save situation? Obviously, the closer might never be needed, but you know the starter would be.

That is only a one-game litmus test. The debate gets trickier when you talk about one, two or three series. The bottom line is that the answer isn't as obvious as the Braves might think, not even after 55 saves. Smoltz acts like a closer, a very good closer. But in his heart, he is still a starter, more ready to take control of a postseason game than to wait to see if it comes to him.

Chicago's K kids

The Cubs have reason to be excited with Matt Clement, 28, Kerry Wood, 25, Mark Prior, 22, and Carlos Zambrano, 21, in their rotation. Make that the Kubs. The four pitchers combined for 672 strikeouts in 643 2/3 innings last year.

Chicago also has a reason to be cautious with this group. Prior and Zambrano have never thrown as many as 168 innings in any season at any level. Now the Cubs are projecting them to be at or near the 200-inning level. Both Prior and Zambrano are tall, solidly built pitchers. Still, breaking two youngsters into the rotation in the same season is a lot for the Cubs to ask. It's not that the duo lacks the stuff to do it; it's more a question of how they react to six months of wear and tear of big league pitching. It's not quite Rush Street, but it's a bold move for a team that rightly expects to contend.

"I don't consider it that big a step," Prior said. "I probably threw 130 innings in my freshman year in college. I've always been the guy counted on to lead the staff and pitch the innings. I consider this to be part of the progression. Actually, on this staff I'm not counted on to be the one to lead."

Prior threw once a week at USC and usually once every sixth day last season. This spring he is being trained to throw on the fifth day, with Chicago planning to keep him on the sixth day whenever off days make it possible. (The Cubs get an off day in five of the first six weeks.) He throws with an smooth, fluid delivery ("easy gas" is the scout's term for his heater) that does not seem to tax his body.

In any case, Prior and Zambrano appear to be stars in the making. The Cubs would be fortunate for it to happen for both of them this year. If Chicago can find another starter to consistently give them innings, the burden on Prior and Zambrano to pitch deep into games would be lessened. In that case, Shawn Estes, 30, becomes a very important pitcher for Chicago. He threw only 160 2/3 innings last year, but is capable of much more.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers the baseball beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com.

 

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