SI.com

Being Brave

Atlanta faces a major challenge in the wide-open NL East

Posted: Tuesday April 15, 2003 12:23 PM
  Tom Verducci - Inside Baseball

Not more than two weeks into the season, Atlanta closer John Smoltz decided on the word to describe what lies ahead for the Braves this year: "Challenging," he said. The team's proud pitching staff torn apart and then mended, its lineup still no better than ordinary at producing runs, Atlanta is the favorite in the National League East on protocol more than hard evidence. Smoltz knows this.

"I admit there have been times when I looked at re-signing here and went through that, 'What have you gotten yourself into?' thinking," the 35-year-old right-hander said. "But you know what? This season is unlike any other for us. It's challenging. That's the way I look at it. It's going to be a huge challenge.

"This division is up for grabs. Anybody can win it. And you know who I think will win it? The team that goes off on a winning streak -- say, eight games or more. A streak like that will be the difference that will separate one team from the others. And when I look around I see every team in the division being capable of that."

The Braves' season may very well hinge on whether Mike Hampton, once he recovers from a calf injury, can give the rotation innings and stability. But no one should be quick to write off a team that has won its division 11 consecutive seasons played to conclusion. And everyone with shovels full of dirt at the ready should have learned from this: Last year the Braves were a losing team halfway through May (19-21) and wound up taking a 9 1/2 game lead into the All-Star break before winning the NL East by 19 games.

As it turned out, no team seriously challenged Atlanta's superiority last year. In past seasons the Phillies (2001), Marlins (1997), Mets (1999 and 2000) and Expos (1996 and the strike-shortened 1994) have taken runs at Atlanta -- some serious, some not-so serious. Since the creation of the six-division format in '94, the Braves have won the NL East by an average of 10 1/2 games, and only twice in those eight seasons failed to win it by at least 6 1/2 games.

The difference this season is that any of the other four teams can win the division. There isn't just one team capable of making a run at Atlanta. There are four of them. And yes, that includes the Montreal/San Juan Expos, a team that may be turning the festive atmosphere at Hiram Bithorn Stadium -- their home for 22 games this year -- into a real homefield advantage.

"We played Montreal early and to me they looked like they may have the most talent [in the NL East]," Smoltz said. "You wonder if playing all those games on the road will hurt them or if they have enough [veteran] leadership. Maybe nobody expected them to win before the season started, but if those guys start to believe they can win, they're as dangerous as anybody."

The Mets can still be a factor if Mo Vaughn, 35, Cliff Floyd, 30, Roberto Alomar, 35, and Mike Piazza, 34, restore themselves to the healthy, productive hitters they once were. (A resurgence by all four over six months is a tall task.) Philadelphia has the division's best lineup and the comfort of Kevin Millwood at the front of its rotation. Florida is dangerous because it has starting pitching that can dominate. Montreal may have the best rotation in the division, especially when Orlando Hernandez returns from shouder tendinitis.

Yes, this is a challenging year for the Braves, not just because of their internal questions, but also because of the balance in the division. Bobby Cox's club faces a dynamic like never before.

Rocco the widget

The only thing that may be more difficult than pitching to Devil Rays rookie outfielder Rocco Baldelli is trying to classify him as a hitter. The guy is a widget. He hits for average but he strikes out a ton. He's a table-setter but he doesn't walk. He has extra-base pop but doesn't hit home runs. This much is known: Baldelli and his running mate at the top of the Tampa Bay lineup, Carl Crawford, are putting up some truly bizarre numbers.

Over their first 116 combined plate appearances, Baldelli and Crawford totaled just one walk while striking out 27 times. (For amusement purposes only, I will point out that they are on pace for 13 walks and 365 strikeouts.) Both swing with such abandon at pitches far out of the strike zone that there is almost no need to ever throw either a strike, short of the unlikely event of a 3-and-0 count.

Despite such youthful aggressiveness, Baldelli was hitting .400 through the first dozen games, smacking four doubles and two triples -- your basic .500 slugging percentage guy with no home runs. Manager Lou Piniella said last weekend that he may bat Baldelli cleanup against some left-handed pitchers.

Baldelli took no walks in his first 50 at-bats this season. Including his 96 at-bats with Class AAA Durham last year, he has gone 146 consecutive at-bats without a free pass.

"I'm just trying to play my game," Baldelli said. "I have to try to hit it on the ground and run. I need to keep it out of the air."

The pampered closer

Armando Benitez of the Mets is so fragile that seven days into the season new manager Art Howe felt compelled to announce that the 30-year-old right-hander was still his closer. Benitez, who blew his first save of the year two days earlier, then claimed it was unfair for the media to ignore him when he saves games and question him when he blows them. And what were the circumstances this year under which reporters did not bother to bow before Benitez's locker? Here are his three "ignored" appearances"

  • One inning in a 4-1 game.
  • One inning in a 4-0 game.
  • One inning in a 3-1 game.

    The media had about as much business interviewing the ticket-takers as they did Benitez after those games. Benitez went on to blow two more save opportunities last week.

    Former Mets manager Bobby Valentine was credited with doing a superb job of stroking Benitez. Howe is building a new relationship with the stopper. What remains to be seen is how Benitez is viewed by other teams. A potential free agent after the season, Benitez is likely to hear his name mentioned often in trade rumors this summer.

    Extra bases

    Word has spread among players that Great America Ballpark in Cincinnati features a jet stream that carries balls in the gaps, especially in right-field. It's a nice time to be Sammy Sosa, isn't it? NL Central teams Cincinnati, Houston and Milwaukee have all built parks that seem to favor home run hitters. ... Trend watch: renegade marketing in baseball. Following the Blue Jays' tasteless "Boo Matsui" ads, the Marlins took out disrespectful ads asking fans to come watch the team "take batting practice off Greg Maddux." Florida managed two hits in six innings off the four-time Cy Young Award winner last Sunday. Refund, anyone? ... Never mind 9-0, the Royals were only the 27th team to start 5-0. And all but three of those previous 26 clubs went on to win at least 84 games.

    Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.

     
    Related information
    Stories
    John Donovan: The Payoff Pitch
    Power Rankings
    Previous Tom Verducci Columns
    Multimedia
    Visit Video Plus for the latest audio and video

  •  


     
    CNNSI