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Deadly deal

Braves were forced to dump Millwood and are paying for it

Posted: Tuesday April 29, 2003 12:43 PM
Updated: Tuesday May 06, 2003 12:59 PM
  Tom Verducci - Inside Baseball

The Atlanta Braves, under the stewardship of GM John Schuerholz, have approached their offseasons with a pro-active, close-to-the-vest philosophy. They don't do bidding wars, they don't cater to free agents (Mike Hampton was shut down cold when he demanded a no-trade clause before he signed with Colorado in 2000) and they don't lose players they want to keep. (You can decide for yourself how much they really wanted to hang onto Tom Glavine.) As Schuerholz once said, "We don't play the stalking horse." That said, the Braves paid for being atypically slow on their feet last winter.

These are the facts:

  • The Braves are paying 37-year-old Greg Maddux $14.75 million for this year, after which he can become a free agent.

  • They gave away Kevin Millwood, who is also eligible for free agency after this season, but happens to be nine years younger than Maddux, pitches deeper into games than Maddux and costs $4.85 million less this year than Maddux.

    The no-hitter Millwood threw on Sunday against a potent Giants team merely emphasizes that the 28-year-old right-hander has been ascending to near the upper echelon of starting pitchers. He was the Braves' best starter last season, especially after a slow beginning. Here's how Millwood compares to Maddux since June 1, 2002:

       W-L  ERA  IP  ER 
    Millwood  29  19-4  2.83  181  57 

    Maddux 

    29  12-7  3.14  172  60  
     

    I would never complain about a rotation that opens with Maddux. But the Braves fell into that arrangement rather than setting it as their course. First, they took a "Well, maybe we want you back" approach to Glavine, who stormed off to the Mets despite his wish to remain in Atlanta. (Maddux would have been gone too had Glavine taken the Braves' money) Then, Atlanta waited to see if agent Scott Boras really could cook up a five-year, $60 million deal for Maddux on the free-agent market. One of the most stunning developments of the new baseball economy was the low level of interest in the four-time Cy Young Award winner. The Phillies, for instance, wined and dined Glavine, but had virtually no interest in Maddux.

    The Braves eventually offered Maddux arbitration, which allowed them to a) continue negotiating with him and b) get a draft pick as compensation if he left. It was only after other teams had spent their money and after Maddux had accepted arbitration that the Braves -- uh-oh! -- realized they had to trade Millwood, who they figured would get $10 million in arbitration. If Maddux had rejected the offer, they would have kept Millwood. Instead, frantic to make a move and pressed to please the worried AOL suits who own the club, Atlanta had to take a backup catcher, Johnny Estrada, to dump Millwood's salary.

    The Braves never properly shopped Millwood -- as the Expos were doing with Bartolo Colon -- because they were ensnared in the Maddux and Glavine negotiations. If Atlanta had truly wanted Maddux, it could have attempted to quickly hammer out a three-year deal that would have allowed him to win his 300th game as a Brave. If Maddux and Boras dragged their feet on that, the Braves should have walked away from them and committed to the younger and cheaper Millwood. No team should get into the position of being under the gun to trade a 29-year-old 18-game winner.

    The Braves had Glavine, Maddux and Millwood from which to choose and they wound up with probably the least valuable deal among the three.

    Millwood, meanwhile, seems on the verge of being a star, a pitcher with great movement on his fastball, a healthy arm, a .627 career winning percentage (79-47) and such a down to earth, low-key attitude that his teammates call him "Topsoil." The Phillies have been tracking Atlanta in the NL East for nine years. The Braves have unwittingly helped them close the gap.

    Youth fades fast in L.A.

    Dodgers manager Jim Tracy benched Adrian Beltre briefly last week, though not before meeting with the third baseman to explain the harsh realities of major league baseball. "It's about results," Tracy said.

    Los Angeles treated Beltre with kid gloves for most of his young career, even awarding him a three-year contract when he was 20. Some in the organization wondered if Beltre needed to be pushed more. Last year the Dodgers traded for left-handed hitting Tyler Houston to, in part, "maybe light a fire under" Beltre, one team source said. Tracy's brief benching of Beltre, however, is more significant. It's the most obvious signal the Dodgers have sent to Beltre, and the message is this: it's time for him to deliver on the promise of his skills.

    Beltre's career makes for a good starting point in the debate of when does a ballplayer stop becoming "young," which can be parlance for excusing mistakes and slow development. Beltre turned 24 on April 7 -- or "only 24" as baseball unofficially refers to such an age. He has the most career home runs (78) of any active player who hasn't turned 25 yet. Sammy Sosa had only 37 career homers on his 24th birthday.

    So what's the problem here? Beltre had taken 2,383 major league at-bats entering this week. That's more experience than Carlos Beltran, Orlando Cabrera or Christian Guzman and about the same as Sean Casey, none of whom are typically excused for non-production because they are "too young."

    Sosa had about half as many at-bats (1,293) as Beltre at the same age. Sosa had his breakout in 1993, the season after turning 24, when he hit 33 home runs.

    Beltre is off to a miserable start this year, batting .205 and drawing only two walks. It would be much easier to write off the poor play as a slow start if Beltre had shown progress at ages 23 and 22. At this point, however, the Dodgers have focused their concern on the lack of development he shows as a hitter. For instance, Beltre is seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance (3.54) and striking out more often (once every 5.57 at-bats) than he has since he was a 19-year-old rookie. His on-base percentage (.241) and batting average are down for a third straight season. He is a career .265 hitter with a .324 on-base percentage -- lower numbers than Dave Hansen (.267, .365).

    No one is ready to give up on Beltre. He's definitely too young for that. But regardless of his age, he's had enough at-bats in the big leagues that by now he should be showing significant improvement. And if he doesn't, Tracy is right to find more at-bats for Mike Kinkade or Ron Coomer at third base on a part-time basis.

    The Yankees' No. 2 man

    Erick Almonte would seem to be the chief beneficiary of Derek Jeter's shoulder injury. The rookie is getting steady playing time at shortstop for the New York Yankees, which he could not have imagined with Jeter around. (Alas, Almonte's lack of range and limited skills have been exposed with that playing time.) But there is another Yankee who is benefiting even more from Jeter's absence: Nick Johnson. After hitting primarily eighth and ninth last season as a rookie, Johnson has assumed Jeter's place in what could be the most prime spot in any big-league lineup: No. 2, between Alfonso Soriano and Jason Giambi.

    Johnson began this week hitting .323 out of the No. 2 hole with a .470 on-base percentage. Overall, he was leading the league in walks with 23.

    "He's benefiting from the reduced strike zone in the two spot," Yankees manager Joe Torre said, referring to pitchers' tendencies to go after Johnson with Giambi on deck and Soriano typically already on base. "When pitchers don't want to face the guys coming up behind you they sometimes take a different approach, and he's [Johnson's] been terrific when it comes to taking advantage of it."

    Johnson prides himself on being patient at the plate, and his walks testify that he's been true to his philosophy, even with Soriano giving him plenty of RBI opportunities.

    "I'm trying to stay back every at-bat and that allows you to get a longer look [at a pitch]," Johnson said. "I try to do that no matter where I'm at in the lineup."

    When Jeter returns, Johnson will have to vacate that prime location in the lineup. The DH/first baseman has looked so good, however, that Torre may have a tough time dropping him all the way to eighth or ninth again. Johnson, by the way, is seven months younger than Almonte. He turns 25 in September.

    Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.

     
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