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Handle with care Young pitchers should be handled with kid glovesPosted: Tuesday May 06, 2003 12:47 PM
Tim Hudson lost a chance for a victory last Saturday at Yankee Stadium. The following day, Barry Zito lost a chance for a shutout. In both cases the Oakland starters had thrown 115 pitches through eight innings when Athletics pitching coach Rick Peterson refused to send them out for the ninth. Somewhere Marlins ace A.J. Burnett wasn't smiling. With a fresh scar on his right elbow after undergoing Tommy John surgery on April 29, Burnett has lost more than just a win or a shutout. Because Florida kept allowing Burnett to stay in games too long, he's lost 12 to 18 months -- at least -- off the prime of his career. Zito turns 25 next week. Burnett is 26 years old. You cannot find two more obvious examples of how and how not to handle young, premier pitchers. Peterson's work with Zito, Hudson and Mark Mulder will become the standard model for this generation of hurlers. Rightly or wrongly, what the Marlins and manager Jeff Torborg did to Burnett will be placed alongside every general manager's definition of potential overuse in their mental database. First, let's look at the career numbers for Zito and Burnett through Sunday:
Only twice in his 91 career starts did Zito throw more than 120 pitches. He did so in an 8-3 win over Tampa Bay on June 1, 2002, throwing 123 pitches over eight innings that day, lingering in part because Oakland played with a worn and depleted bullpen. He threw 122 pitches on April 9, 2001 while striking out 10 in six innings. That's it. Torborg allowed Burnett to exceed 120 pitches 10 times in a 24-start span alone last year, including three times in 16 days in April, for goodness sake. Burnett was shut down briefly late in the 2002 season with elbow pain and made only four starts this year before undergoing reconstructive surgery. (By the way, when asked this spring about Burnett's high pitch counts last year, Torborg said "He won't do that [again]. It makes no sense." Why did it make sense last season when he was a year younger?) Does this mean that a pitcher should never be allowed to throw more than 120 pitches? Should dugouts be equipped with emergency sirens and arm police who spring into action when the almighty count hits 121? Of course not. There is nothing wrong with exceeding 120 pitches on occasion, especially given a fully rested, properly trained and physically sound starter -- especially one who's at least in his mid-20s. What's important to know, however, is whether that pitcher was stressed in his previous outing and if he is assured of not being pushed in his next start. Peterson, for instance, looks not just at individual game pitch counts, but blocks of 11 days, the time period that typically includes three starts. (Peterson also counts pitches in bullpen side sessions between starts.) Here are the highest three-start pitch counts for Zito and Burnett over the last two seasons: 1. 370 (Burnett)
This is where you can see how their apparently similar workloads differ greatly. Burnett had a greater three-start workload eight more times than Zito and tied him once on the lowest figure (347). Zito's workload has been remarkably free of extreme variances. He has thrown between 90 and 119 pitches in all but nine of his past 75 starts. What Peterson does so well is gain a bio-mechanical understanding of his pitchers. He brings his them to Dr. James Andrews' orthopedic center in Birmingham, Ala., where their mechanics can be studied and measured scientifically. Why, for instance, can 175-pound Tim Hudson throw a fastball in the mid-90s? His hip rotation is off the charts, and Peterson has learned that nothing determines velocity more than hip rotation. Armed with the data and a better understanding of his pitchers, Peterson not only learns precisely where tweaks need to be made in a hurler's mechanics, but he also knows how far a pitcher can be pushed -- irrespective of potential wins or shutouts. Look at the series at Yankee Stadium this past weekend. Hudson was pulled after eight dominating innings. Closer Keith Foulke blew the lead by giving up a ninth-inning homer to Jason Giambi . The next day, Zito was pulled needing only three outs to finish a four-hit shutout. But to do that he would have had to have thrown at least 130 pitches, something Peterson would never allow. Zito has completed only six games in his 91 career starts. Mike Flanagan (15 in 1977), Dave Stieb (14 in 1980), Bret Saberhagen (10 in 1985) and Mike Mussina (8 in 1992) all threw more complete games in their first full season as starters. All have had long careers. And if you want the best they-don't-make-'em-like-that-anymore story of all, go back to July 2, 1963, when Warren Spahn and Juan Marichal pitched their legendary 16-inning game. Spahn, who was 42 years old, threw 201 pitches. Marichal, who was 25, the same age as Zito will be next week, threw 227 pitches. (Marichal won 25 games that year, and won more than 20 in the three following seasons as well.) There are many reasons Johnny can't pitch as much as he used to, including tougher lineups, the evolution of the specialized bullpen, a smaller strike zone, million dollar salaries, etc. But perhaps the biggest reason is that clubs are attempting to minimize the health risk of pitchers by limiting their work at a young age. In other words, Barry Zito is not trained to do what Warren Spahn or Dave Stieb were trained to do. To then ask Zito to jump beyond his normal fatigue point simply to chase the statistical nicety of a shutout makes no sense. The Athletics have this figured out. As Zito, Hudson and Mulder continue to succeed -- without the complete games or shutouts we've expected from great pitchers even in the recent past -- the model Peterson has created on and off the field will be copied around the game. For Burnett, though, it's too late. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.
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