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Case closed Evidence shows Palmeiro is clearly worthy of a Hall callPosted: Tuesday May 13, 2003 1:11 PM
Baseball is a game loaded with eternal mysteries, such as why pitchers are not supposed to catch pop-ups, why umpires cannot call a runner out for missing a base unless the other team asks, and how Chicago teams could be in an 0-for-179 slump in trying to win the World Series. Of this, however, I am certain: Rafael Palmeiro is a Hall of Famer. That people should even question his worthiness is stranger than Roger Cedeno tracking flyballs in center field. When Palmeiro blasted his 500th home run on Mother's Day Sunday -- on the last pitch he saw in a Rangers six-game homestand -- baseball fans wondered if the 38-year-old first baseman belonged in Cooperstown, what with 500 supposedly not being what it used to be. Two facts bear remembering on the occasion of the historic homer: Palmeiro is not a pure home run hitter and he's not done playing, either. It's entirely possible that Palmeiro will hit another 40 home runs over these next two seasons (he wants to return to Texas next year, though he may play more DH to make room for Mark Teixeira at first base). If that happens, he will pass Mickey Mantle (536) and possibly retire among the top 10 home run hitters of all time. Moreover, if Palmeiro stays healthy, he'll make a run at 3,000 hits. What's not to like about Palmeiro? Critics argue he's been named to only four All-Star teams, and never as a starter (as if the fans vote entirely on merit); he's never finished among the top four in any MVP vote; and he's never won a home run title, despite the fact that he's played his home games in Wrigley Field, Arlington Stadium, Camden Yards and The Ballpark in Arlington -- all hitter friendly. (Palmeiro's career home run rate is about 25 percent higher at home than on the road; his batting average is lower at home.) The Havana native, who has always seemed to play in the shadow of a star teammate, never earned as much in one season as Bobby Higginson or Jeromy Burnitz (but hold off on the telethon; Palmeiro has pulled down $73 million playing baseball). Eddie Murray endured very similar slights, but rightly emerged as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Indeed, Palmeiro is the Murray of his era: a reliable, steady performer who has produced at elite levels, if not the very top shelf. Baseball-reference.com's sharp Most Similar Player tool captures how Palmeiro slowly built a Hall of Fame career. It was not until he turned 33 that he was on a statistical par with a Hall of Famer at the same age. The comparisons run thusly: Shawn Green, Al Oliver, Darin Erstad, John Olerud, Will Clark, Billy Williams, Orlando Cepeda, and Murray. What Palmeiro may have most in his favor is The Tony Perez Factor, otherwise known as the Least Common Denominator. The entire voting world of the Hall of Fame changed in 2000 when Perez, on his ninth try, gained election by 10 votes, obtaining 170 more votes than he did his first year on the ballot. Perez was a very good player who played on great teams in a lineup with three Cooperstown-quality hitters. But he was a marginal-fielding corner infielder who walked infrequently, struck out often and had good, but not great, power. Worse players are in the Hall, but none of them were voted in by the writers. The writers had historically rejected players like Perez, leaving behind Ted Kluszewski, Gil Hodges, Ron Santo, Dick Allen and others. Perez's entry to the Hall opens the door for a flood of modern-day candidates, including Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi and Jim Thome, all of whom figure to retire with better credentials than Perez. Here's a snapshot look at how Perez compares to Palmeiro and McGriff, the two players from the above list who are furthest along in their careers:
Now let's see how they compare in superlative seasons and the postseason:
Finally, let's measure them against their peers, tracking how many times they finished in the top 10 in the following categories:
Nearly across the board Palmeiro and McGriff have better credentials -- they were better players -- than Perez. There's no way Palmeiro and McGriff are not worthy of being in the same club as Perez. Stupid Met tricksShortstop Rey Sanchez earned a spot in the Mets' rogues gallery last week when he slipped into the clubhouse for a haircut during a blowout loss to St. Louis. Despite the hysterical headlines, one Mets player and one Mets executive said Sanchez very briefly trimmed his sideburns and some hair on the sides of his head, foregoing the full spa treatment. Is it the water in Flushing? No team in recent years has had more episodes of embarrassment than the Mets. In fact, the list is so long that Sanchez doesn't even make the cut when it comes to the Top 10 list of Mets behaving badly: 1. Vince Coleman throwing a lit firecracker toward a group of fans in a Dodger Stadium parking lot in 1993. 2. Bobby Bonilla and Rickey Henderson playing cards during a1999 NLCS Game 6 loss. 3. Mark Corey being hospitalized with seizure-like symptoms after smoking marijuana with teammate Tony Tarasco just blocks from Shea Stadium in 2002. 4. Bret Saberhagen squirting bleach on reporters in 1993. 5. Bonilla threatening a reporter with "I'll show you the Bronx" in 1993. 6. Bobby Valentine returning to the bench wearing a disguise during a 1999 game from which he was ejected. 7. Rey Ordonez calling Mets fans "stupid" at the end of the 2002 season. 8. Grant Roberts captured in a snapshot smoking dope from a bong. 9. Bonilla wearing ear plugs for home games in 2000. 10. Coleman hitting Dwight Gooden in the pitching shoulder with a golf club while practicing his swing in the clubhouse in 1993. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.
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