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Proper credit Despite inflated numbers, today's hitters deserve their duePosted: Thursday May 15, 2003 11:42 AM
There's nothing like a little Hall of Fame debate to fill the old mailbag. The problem with such debates, fun as they are, is that when you say "no" to a player you're then put in the position of arguing against a very, very good player. Even the borderline ones are among the game's all-time best, the top one or two percent. It's like not selecting Miss California or Miss Hawaii as finalists for the Miss USA competition. You have to draw the line somewhere in these beauty contests. Beyond the truly magnificent (Ruth, Gehrig, Seaver, Bonds, etc.), there are no absolute rights or wrongs, only opinions. You're forgetting one very fundamental thing in comparing Tony Perez, Rafael Palmeiro and Fred McGriff. Perez was in his prime during the 1960s and 1970s, when scoring was at a low point. I scrolled through the record books and noticed that at no point during Perez's career did a team average more than 4.5 runs per game. In the heyday of the Big Red Machine, the league averaged about 4.0 runs per game. From 1994 until 2000, only once was the American League average below 5.0. Perez was also a key ingredient on championship teams, and was a consistent producer over a long period of time. I believe Perez belongs in the Hall.
You make some valid points, but be careful not to overstate Perez's value in a lineup that had Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench and Pete Rose. And I did not forget the fundamental difference in run scoring across the eras. I recognize Perez played in a time when runs were harder to come by. That's why I included some information about how those players measured against their peers -- where they ranked in Top 10 MVP finishes and in the major offensive categories. Palmeiro and McGriff have been better against their peers -- with more players on their level -- than Perez was. One more thing: take OPS+, a handy device that measures on-base plus slugging percentage relative to home park and league average factors. You wind up with this: Palmeiro 134, McGriff 135, Perez 122. I'm just not buying that Perez was a better player than those two guys, even accounting for the inflation of numbers. There is a huge danger in dismissing all of today's great hitters because of "inflated numbers." Maybe Jay Buhner and Dante Bichette were no Mike Schmidts, but you should give the many, many great hitters of today their due.
If Palmeiro makes the Hall of Fame, then Bert Blyleven should be a slam dunk. Blyleven is in the all-time top five for strikeouts and just a few wins short of 300, but he never won a Cy Young. He is almost the pitching version of Palmeiro. Bert Blyleven pitched 22 seasons. In only nine of them was he more than two games better than .500. He made the All-Star team only twice, including once in 1985 when he was 9-11 for Cleveland, which had to have a representative at the game. He received Cy Young Award votes only four times, including only once with anything more than token support (his point totals: 1, 45, 9, 9). A workhorse? A very good pitcher? A model of longevity? Absolutely. But I just don't see the same consistency of excellence I see with Palmeiro. I read that the Oregon legislature has passed a bill that would provide funding to help the Expos move to Portland. If that happens, is there any chance of the Portland team being assigned to the American League and the Texas Rangers being moved to the National League? I know that the Rangers have long been anxious to get out of the AL West.
First, I wouldn't be too quick to assume that Portland gets the team. If it somehow did happen, some realignment would have to take place, but I'm not sure Seattle and Portland should be in the same league. They could play each other annually in interleague play, and shouldn't fans in the Pacific Northwest get to see both leagues? Don't you think it's time for the Blue Jays to trade the highly talented but erratic Kelvim Escobar? Toronto can't decide how to use him. Maybe it's time another team figures it out.
It's past time for the Blue Jays to move Escobar. He's one of those guys who has never pitched consistently to the quality of his stuff. I think a contender could use him as a power set-up guy in the mold of an Octavio Dotel.
Rick Reed and Eddie Guardado are free agents at the end of the year. I expect both to leave the Twins. Do you agree? Does Minnesota have any pitchers in the minors who could effectively replace Reed and Guardado? I wouldn't expect Reed or Guardado to be back. Guardado is a real gamer, but he probably has only the fourth-best arm in the Minnesota bullpen. The Twins can find a closer to replace him at a lower cost (J.C. Romero?) and would do well to put Johan Santana in the rotation when Reed leaves, if not before.
Tom, thanks for speaking the unspoken on Piazza's move to first. Some people don't realize that as soon as he moves, Piazza will immediately become the worst first baseman in baseball. Despite his marquee value and big bat, wouldn't the Mets be better off trading Piazza now so they can get something of value in return?
On a very practical level it does make sense to trade Piazza, assuming he would agree (he's a 10-and-5 guy this month) and the Mets could get close to equal value. I don't see it happening, though. Also, remember that Piazza really is a pillar of the franchise right now, as you alluded to. It would be a seismic shift for the franchise to make, and with all the questions about their GM right now and with the farm system a bit shallow, I don't think New York is in position to deal its superstar. I was recently at a Tampa restaurant when my friend spotted Cito Gaston. I thought to myself 'why hasn't a man who won back-to-back World Series titles as a manager been considered for a managerial job since?' Is there any reason? Has he been blackballed?
No, Gaston hasn't been blackballed. There were a few teams years ago that expressed interest in the former Blue Jays skipper and he declined to reciprocate. The timing and/or teams just weren't right. Gaston was great with those winning Toronto clubs, but did a poor job as the team began to age and break up, remaining pretty much a do-nothing manager. However, I do think that for the right club Gaston would have a lot to offer.
The Mariners appear to be fortunate right now to have young, effective pitching. At the risk of being greedy, I still wonder whether Ryan "Space Needle" Anderson is expected to ever make it into the M's rotation? After two shoulder operations, Anderson isn't even on Seattle's radar screen yet. It's too early to predict with any certainty, but next year seems to be the soonest he could return. Do you think Nomar Garciaparra has lost bat speed since his wrist injury and subsequent surgery last year? Nomar is still a great player, but he doesn't seem as quick at the plate.
No, I think Garciaparra still has a quick bat. His 2002 season was right in line in many ways with his big 1998 season, and I expect he'll finish with similar numbers this year. However, I'd be concerned with his defense. He's always been prone to errors because he makes so many plays on the run and has that slingshot throwing style, but Garciaparra's defense seems to have slipped further this year.
What are your feelings about the Phillies so far? Do you think they need a new center fielder, since Rickey Ledee seems to be all hit and no field, and Marlon Byrd seems to be some field and no hit? Any chance Philly could trade for Mark Kotsay of the Padres? I know the Phils could also use another top starting pitcher (Schilling? Leiter?), but good teams always seem to be strong up the middle.
The Phillies are disappointed in Byrd, especially defensively, but they're not ready to give up on him. There's no way they'll get a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, not when they have one in Kevin Millwood. What the Phillies need is for Pat Burrell's bat to come around -- which is a good thing, if that's the worst of your problems. I still think Philadelphia is a legitimate contender with what it has now. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.
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