 |
| |
|
 |
 |
|||||||||||
|
Roger and doubt Not everyone is convinced of Clemens' dominancePosted: Wednesday May 28, 2003 5:14 PM
Click here to send a question to Tom Verducci's Mailbag. Can you think of a first-ballot Hall of Fame pitcher who has divided fans more than Roger Clemens? Did anybody not like Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson or Warren Spahn? Even outside the expected camps of Red Sox and Mets loyalists, it seems many fans don't exactly dig the Rocket. The public perception held by many of his detractors who never met the guy is very different from the Clemens his teammates know and the one I've covered. So I knew that writing an appreciation for Clemens and his amazing run at the end of his career would bring challenges. The mailbag does not disappoint. It's awfully convenient that in your column on Clemens you never mention ERA, which is the ultimate stat in terms of judging a pitcher. A pitcher's stuff (measured by K's) and winning percentage (measured in part by your team's ability to score) are both important factors, but not as important as ERA. I do agree with you that Clemens is one of the best pitchers of our time, but you seem to easily dismiss so many other hurlers. I'll put my money on Greg Maddux over Clemens.
Maddux is one of my all-time favorite pitchers and his stretch from 1992-'97 has to rank up there -- in a very different way -- with Koufax's run in the mid '60s. And Maddux (entering this year) has a slightly better relative ERA (measured against his league, adjusted for ballparks) than Clemens -- .142 and .146, respectively. But Maddux is three years behind Clemens on his career curve. Will the Braves ace pitch past age 40? Will he win 300 games? His book hasn't been closed yet. He and Clemens are so close it's hard to separate them. Let's allow the rest of Maddux's career to play out, and then a difference may be more definite. I have a couple of reservations about Clemens. He's always pitched in the American League, so the "intimidator" never had to face the "retaliator." You can question his courage so long as he deals heat high and inside without ever having to face it, unlike Don Drysdale, for example, who dished it out and still took his swipes at the plate. And in his "twilight," Clemens has had all the run support that George Steinbrenner could buy. In his four complete years with the Yankees, his ERA is 4.04. Pedro Martinez's ERA in that same period is 2.12.
I agree that AL pitchers in the DH era have the benefit of brushing back hitters without having to step in the box themselves (though that never stopped Drysdale and Gibson, and I doubt it would have stopped Clemens.) And please don't think I'm making a case that Clemens at the end of his career is as good as Pedro in his prime. No way. But Clemens is winning about the same percentage of his decisions. The Rocket also has one of the best all-time records as far as personal winning percentage above the winning percentage of the teams he pitched for. Some teams with postseason potential have questionable pitching rotations, i.e. Seattle, Anaheim, St. Louis. Which hard-throwing, front-line pitchers (No. 1 or 2 starters) might become available at the trade deadline?
It will be interesting to see if the White Sox make another white flag trade and move Bartolo Colon, who is a free agent after this season. Obviously, Chicago would have to fall well back in the Central over the next seven weeks for that to happen -- but the way they're going, that could be a possibility. Otherwise, I don't see those kinds of pitchers out there. It's more back-of-the-rotation guys -- such as Sidney Ponson, Steve Trachsel, Jeff Suppan and Denny Neagle -- who are available. The Dodgers have been riding high lately. They unquestionably have the best pitching in the National League. Unfortunately, they are having real trouble hitting the ball. Can the Dodgers pitch their way to the playoffs?
It is possible for the Dodgers to pitch their way in, though their staff could not afford to have any physical breakdowns and their offense would have to pick up a bit. I think L.A. needs another bat, and it should deal from its strength of right-handed pitching in the bullpen to get one. Has the stolen base become a lost art in today's style of ball? If so, do you anticipate speed once again becoming the key on offense, or is it the home run that is destined to become the mainstay of run production?
What has happened to the great basestealing threats of the past 20 years? Where are the players like Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman and Tim Raines? Could it be that today's catchers are better at throwing out runners?
The stolen base has been losing importance ever since the era of slugging began with the 1993 expansion. In this day and age, it just doesn't make sense to risk losing a runner trying to advance one base when the guy at the plate can whack one out of the park. Also, remember that in this era teams do a much better job of defending the stolen base through the use of slide steps and calls from the bench (i.e. step off, throw over, pitch out). I don't see the stolen base gaining popularity in the foreseeable future. What do you think about the Cubs' third base situation? It seemed that Chicago was going to give Mark Bellhorn a chance, but he has struggled and Dusty Baker has lost confidence in him. The Cubs have the young pitching to trade for Mike Lowell, but they also have third baseman David Kelton doing a great job in Class AAA. Have the Cubs given up on Bellhorn? If so, will they trade a young pitcher or two for Lowell, or could they call up Kelton? What would you do?
I'd trade a young pitcher like Juan Cruz for Lowell. I like Bellhorn, but Lowell is a definite upgrade and Dusty much prefers veterans with a solid track record. I can't see Baker going with a guy like Kelton down the stretch. Not that the fans of either team deserve it, but I was hoping you could comment on the chances of the Expos and Blue Jays. Both teams feature young players doing well. What are the chances for each club to make the playoffs this season, as well as in the not-so-distant future?
I don't think the Blue Jays are a playoff team yet, but they're on track to contend as early as next year -- if they can turn up a little more pitching. Montreal has been hurt by injuries, otherwise I'd say the Expos are a legitimate threat to win the NL East. Why is it that for the past four years the Rangers have had one of the most lethal lineups in baseball, but haven't been able to acquire at least one decent pitcher? Owner Tom Hicks can buy the best hockey team in the NHL, but he can't buy even ONE 15-20 game winner? Please don't say that Chan Ho Park was supposed to be that guy because I knew before they signed him that he wasn't even close to being an ace. I am most upset because there have been decent starters up for grabs in free agency who have completely slipped through Texas' fingertips (i.e. Tom Glavine). What are your thoughts?
The Ballpark in Arlington is a poor man's Coors Field. It's very tough to attract and maintain good pitching there. That said, the Rangers made a big mistake signing Park because of his makeup (he's not a No. 1 starter) and his career troubles outside of Dodger Stadium, a pitcher's park. I don't think Glavine would have been a good fit for Texas at his age, but it's a moot point because he wasn't leaving the NL. The answer has to come from Texas' farm system, and the answers there have not been good. Maybe Colby Lewis can develop into a solid starter. Do you see anyone -- either this year or in the near future -- breaking Hack Wilson's single-season record of 191 RBIs? The "unbreakable" records of Ruth, Maris and Cobb have all been broken, but this one seems to be overlooked. Your thoughts?
I don't see it happening this year, that's for sure. It's not unbreakable, but it's on that next level of "nearly" unbreakable. Consider this: since 1938 no one has come within 25 RBIs of the record. Manny Ramirez, who had 165 in 1999, came closest. That's only 86 percent of the way there. By comparison, Pete Rose (44-game hit streak in 1978) made it 79 percent of the way to Joe DiMaggio's record of 56 before he was stopped. Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.
|
|
|||||||||
|
|||||||||||
