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Dodging history

It won't be easy for weak-hitting L.A. to reach the playoffs

Posted: Tuesday June 17, 2003 12:58 PM
  Tom Verducci - Inside Baseball

This column began with a question from a reader that sent me wondering: Can the Dodgers possibly win a playoff spot with an offense that's deadball-era bad? If you've seen the Los Angeles pitching staff, the answer is yes. If you've read the history books, the answer is no.

Dodgers general manager Dan Evans has said he does not intend to trade from his pitching strength to improve his offense -- as if he'd announce his intentions to his fellow GMs and the rest of the free world if he planned to do otherwise. If we take Evans at his word, Los Angeles is trying to do what nobody ever has done: get into the postseason with the worst scoring team in its respective league.

Only two teams ever have reached the playoffs after finishing next-to-last in runs scored. They are the:

  • 1973 Mets. Let's not confuse this team with a juggernaut. Yogi Berra's club won only 82 games. The pitching was very good, but not otherworldly (third in the NL in ERA.) Chalk up the Mets' success to a down year for the NL East. Eighty-two wins in 2003 won't get you within sniffing distance of October.

  • 1985 Royals. They won 91 games despite ranking 13th among 14 teams in runs and last in on-base percentage. How? They leaned on five starting pitchers who were between 21 and 28 years old and combined to go 75-42: Bret Saberhagen, Danny Jackson, Bud Black, Charlie Leibrandt and Mark Gubicza. This K.C. squad may be the closest historical reference to the current Dodgers, except L.A. has an older staff.

    Only eight other postseason teams have finished ahead of two clubs in scoring: the 1916 Red Sox, 1924 Senators, 1938 Cubs, 1959 White Sox, 1965 Dodgers, 1966 Dodgers, 1981 Royals and 1996 Dodgers, the only team to do so in the wild-card era. That's 10 out of 304 first-place and wild-card teams (or three percent of the playoff field) since 1901 that has finished among the bottom three in runs.

    The 2003 Dodgers would have to stage a big-time rally to pass anybody in the NL in runs. They began this week on pace to score 577 runs -- 71 fewer than the projected total of the next most offensively challenged team, San Diego. How bad is that? The 577 runs would have put the Dodgers last in the league in 1912.

    There is nothing Los Angeles does well offensively. The Dodgers also rank last in -- deep breath here -- batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, walks, home runs, RBIs and total bases. The infield is so bad that Fred McGriff's .315 on-base percentage is the best of the bunch. Middle infielders Alex Cora (.293 OBP) and Cesar Izturis (.288) are 1960s-style good-field, no-hit anachronisms and third baseman Adrian "But He's Young" Beltre (.270) continues to lean on his birth certificate to excuse his awful production at a corner position.

    Ah, but the way Kevin Brown and company are dealing, does it really matter? Not so far. The Dodgers begin this week on the tail of the Giants in the NL West and with the lead position in the wild-card race. Last week L.A. scored 22 runs -- and went 6-0. Earlier this season, the Dodgers endured a 10-game stretch during which they scored 40 runs -- and went 10-0. L.A.'s pitchers have been brilliant, especially because they know, in most cases, if they allow a fourth run to score the team will lose.

    Give Los Angeles credit for finding and developing pitchers while knowing what works in its home ballpark. It's no coincidence that the Dodgers are known to have one of the highest, most severely sloped pitching mounds in the game. Compare what L.A. has done with the mistakes that helped get Steve Phillips fired as GM of the Mets. New York obtained a bunch of AL-style, veteran DHs and finesse pitchers, despite the fact that the team plays in a pitcher's park. Look for interim GM Jim Duquette to reconfigure the Mets as a pitching/defense team.

    The Dodgers are swimming upstream against the tide of offense in today's game. Of the 64 postseason teams in the wild-card era (since 1995), only three finished worse than ninth in their league in scoring: the 1995 Dodgers, the 1996 Dodgers and the 2001 Braves. You're more likely to pound your way into October -- 11 of the 16 teams to lead their league in scoring in the wild-card era have made the playoffs.

    So, let's reconsider the reader's question. Yes, the Dodgers can pitch their way into the playoffs despite their anemic offense, as long as their staff remains healthy. Evans will be tempted in the next six weeks to swing a deal for a hitter such as Mike Lowell, Carlos Beltran or Roberto Alomar. But as long as the staff remains intact, Evans is more likely to tempt history and believe that what's worked for almost half the season is no fluke.

    Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.

     
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