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In the driver's seat

Surging Astros have taken charge of their division

Posted: Tuesday July 22, 2003 11:47 AM
Updated: Wednesday July 23, 2003 12:14 PM
  Tom Verducci - Inside Baseball

The Houston Astros are the team to beat in the National League Central, which is odd considering that as recently as July 6 the Astros were only one game better than .500, their top guns, Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt, are 13-14 combined, and both Jeff Bagwell and Jeff Kent are on pace for fewer than 90 RBIs for the first time since 1995 and 1996, respectively. Houston's standing atop the Central would not be possible without the underwhelming play of its division rivals, particularly Cincinnati.

Starting July 7, when they were 44-43, the Astros were to play 14 of their next 42 games against the Reds. Through Monday, Houston is 10-2 in that span, including 8-0 versus Cincinnati. The Astros swept four games from the Reds last weekend using four starters, Jeriome Robertson, Oswalt, Ron Villone and Miller, who are 20-0 combined against Cincinnati. The Reds are better than chicken soup when it comes to making a club feel better. No wonder Houston GM Gerry Hunsicker feels no need to make one of those obligatory trading deadline deals.

"If our team plays up to its ability level, we have an excellent chance to win," Hunsicker said. "I can't predict who's going to be hot or cold over a three-month period. That's the dilemma that faces all clubs. But I don't think there's a player out there [on the trade market] for us who would make the difference between winning or losing a playoff spot."

Houston built this club to bash opponents with its powerful offense while riding two horses in the rotation, Oswalt and Miller, and two in the bullpen, Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner. While the Astros rank fourth in the NL in runs -- on pace to score 823, a jump from 749 last year -- they haven't "clicked up until now," Hunsicker said.

"I think as much as anything, what's happened lately is a couple of guys who didn't have good first halves are starting to pitch in," Hunsicker said. "Bagwell was pretty much a non-factor in the first half. [Lance] Berkman had an OK first half, but nowhere near where he's been the last couple of years. Richard Hidalgo and Morgan Ensberg have been our two most consistent offensive players."

Bagwell, 35, is playing with an arthritic right shoulder that continues to deteriorate. His slugging percentage is dropping for a third straight year, and his projected 89 RBIs would be his fewest since 1995. Kent, also 35, has been slowed by injuries and is on track for 84 RBIs after six consecutive 100-RBI seasons with the Giants. Meanwhile, Craig Biggio, 37, has posted a .353 on-base percentage, his worst since 1990 except for a .330 disaster last year. Those veterans, however, don't have to carry this team. Even a slight increase in production in the second half would be a boost for Houston.

The Astros need Oswalt to get healthy and to find his confidence again. "He's in a transition period to get to a comfort level with that groin," Hunsicker said. Also, Miller (already at a career high for losses) must become more consistent, and Bagwell and Kent have to increase their production. That's not asking a whole lot, and if those things happen, this team will really take off.

Houston has done a terrific job recently developing stars as well as role players. Entering this week, homegrown pitchers accounted for 66 percent of the team's wins and 65 percent of its innings. And rookie Jeriome Robertson, who leads the team in victories (9-3) despite a 4.89 ERA, has continued that run.

The Astros are in an enviable position, and not only because they're the lead dog in the Central. The Cubs need to find more offense and the Cardinals need to find more pitching. Houston has the answers within its current roster. And when they get to September, the Astros will play 14 of their final 23 games against the Padres, Brewers and Rockies. In the meantime, they still have six more meetings with the Reds.

Staying power

On Sunday, Bagwell became one of only 16 players to hit his first 400 home runs for the same franchise. He's only the second player to do so in the free-agent era, joining Cal Ripken Jr. Don't look now, but Frank Thomas, born the same day as Bagwell (May 27, 1968), is about to join them. (Next on the active list, but far from 400: Edgar Martinez, with 292 home runs, all with Seattle.) Here are the players who hit the most home runs with their first major league team:

Franchise Players
Player Team Home Runs
Hank Aaron Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves 733
Willie Mays New York/San Francisco Giants 646
Harmon Killebrew Minnesota Twins 559
Mike Schmidt Philadelphia Phillies 548
Mickey Mantle New York Yankees 536
Ted Williams Boston Red Sox 521
Ernie Banks Chicago Cubs 512
Mel Ott New York Giants 511
Eddie Mathews Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves 507
Lou Gehrig New York Yankees 493
Stan Musial St. Louis Cardinals 475
Willie Stargell Pittsburgh Pirates 475
Carl Yastrzemski Boston Red Sox 452
Cal Ripken Jr. Baltimore Orioles 431
Willie McCovey San Francisco Giants 413
Jeff Bagwell Hosuton Astros 400
Frank Thomas Chicago White Sox 399

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Click here to send a question to his Mailbag.

 
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