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Winged worries? Fusaichi Pegasus faces favorite's curse at Derby
Posted: Tuesday May 02, 2000 06:34 PM
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) -- Mike Smith will be aboard long-shot Globalize in the Kentucky Derby, so he won't have to worry about the 21-year-old favorite's curse. The unenviable role of favorite falls to Fusaichi Pegasus, trained by new Hall of Famer Neil Drysdale and ridden by Kent Desormeaux. The last Derby favorite to win was Spectacular Bid in 1979. Smith, though, is quite familiar with favorite failure in the Derby since he was aboard three of them since 1993 -- Prairie Bayou, Holy Bull and Unbridled's Song. "It's hard to get a handle on it, but the best horse doesn't always win," Smith said Tuesday. "In Fusaichi Pegasus, you know he has the ability. But whether he has the stamina and mind for it, you don't know." Three times since '79, the favorite managed to finish second, with Captain Bodgit's loss to Silver Charm by a head in 1997 the most recent. In the '90s, the Derby favorite has two seconds, a third, two fifths, two eighths, a 10th, a 12th and a 16th place finish. Smith was second with Prairie Bayou in '93; 12th with Holy Bull in '94 and fifth with Unbridled's Song in '96. He's still amazed at Holy Bull's effort, especially since the gray came into the race off dominating wins in the Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. "He just didn't run a lick in the Derby," Smith said. "He was dull during the week, dull in the post parade, didn't leave the gate, and just went through the motions. He probably was the best horse going in, but there are a lot of things that can go wrong." There are dozens of explanations why favorites don't win the Derby -- new surroundings, the grueling 1 1/4 miles, unfamiliar track surface, full 20-horse fields, the weeklong media-frenzy and bad betting. And that's just a few things. There's also the public's penchant for betting horses coupled in the wagering -- '83 winner Sunny's Halo probably would have been favored over the entry of Marfa, Balboa Native and Total Departure. Bob Baffert subscribes to the bad-betting theory. He saddled the last two Derby favorites, the entry of Excellent Meeting and General Challenge in '99; and Indian Charlie in '98. Baffert's Real Quiet won in '98 as the fifth choice in the betting. "Indian Charlie was the favorite but I knew Real Quiet was doing better than any of them leading up to the race," said Baffert, who sends out Captain Steve on Saturday. "I think the media makes them favorites. It has a lot to do with it. You guys are bad handicappers." Drysdale, who had the Derby favorite in A.P. Indy in '92 before the colt was scratched on race day with a bruised foot, isn't bothered by the curse. "He's continuing to strengthen," Drysdale said of his $4 million colt. "I've been watching him work and he looks good going over the ground. I'm happy to see him in good condition." Alex Hassinger, who trains Anees, says when the best 3-year-olds in the nation converge at one place, there really isn't a true favorite. "With so many good horses in the same race, form doesn't always hold up," he said. "A horse will either like or not like the surface, and many top horses are running on the this track for the first time." Chris McCarron, who will be aboard top contender The Deputy, says experience counts when it comes to pulling off a clean trip. "The favorite has to run the best race of his career because there's so much traffic, everyone's head is down and we're riding as hard as we can," McCarron, a two-time Derby winner, said. "Even the best horse still needs a clean trip to get it done." Todd Pletcher will saddle four horses in his first Derby, and says "a lot of people betting on this race usually don't bet on races. They go by what they read. "Look at Fusaichi Pegasus. He's never run at Churchill Downs, but based on past performance he's the favorite. He did take his race to New York and ran big, and maybe he can do it here, too. We'll just have to see."
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