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From the Backstretch

Fusaichi Pegasus has the right stuff to take the Derby

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Posted: Saturday May 06, 2000 11:28 AM

  Many experts feel Fusaichi Pegasus could become the first favorite to win since Spectacular Bid. AP

By Mark Beech, Sports Illustrated

LOUISVILLE -- For the last 20 years, the home stretch at Churchill Downs has been where Kentucky Derby favorites have gone to die. For most handicappers, picking against the morning line has become almost as lucrative a way to bet as delving into the minutiae of a horse's pedigree, or looking for trends in Beyer Speed Figures. Only the most optimistic of gamblers -- and who's ever met one of those? -- would regard the morning line favorite as anything but a risky proposition when handicapping the Derby.

This year, however, all that seems to have changed with the arrival at Churchill Downs of a colt that many experts regard as one of the most talented to come along in more than a decade. The general consensus in the press box seems to be that if Fusaichi Pegasus gets a clean trip on Saturday, he has an excellent chance of becoming the first favorite to win the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

Of all the things I thought the horse had to overcome to win the Derby -- his pedigree, his experience, the field and himself -- I think the one that could prevent him from standing in the winner's circle is the 19-horse field. The track will be crowded, and Fusaichi Pegasus will have to pick his way around a lot of rivals to put himself in striking position.

I think he can, mostly because I saw him run in the Wood Memorial, which his trainer, Neil Drysdale, has called "an excellent training race." In the Wood, Fusaichi Pegasus trailed five horses around the clubhouse turn, all the while taking mud in his face. As the field moved down the backstretch, he moved towards the lead between two horses before seizing it as he came out of the turn for home. It was an excellent effort, and the colt finished it with a flourish, with an effortless acceleration to the finish.

My Predicted Order of Finish...
1. Fusaichi Pegasus  
He should confirm his status as the best of his generation. 
2. The Deputy  
A real threat, but he was beaten easily by Fusaichi Pegasus in the San Felipe on March 19. 
3. War Chant  
Blinkers should help him focus, but I think he lacks the experience to win it all. 
4. Aptitude  
Well bred closer is seriously compromised by starting from the two-hole. 
5. Captain Steve  
He's the hot horse, but he hasn't really shown that he can beat the top three. 
 


 
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