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The need for speed War Emblem faces daunting task in Triple Crown questPosted: Friday June 07, 2002 4:03 PM
By David Seigerman, Special to CNNSI.com ELMONT, N.Y. -- Some call him the rabbit. Bobby Frankel calls him the reason Medaglia D'Oro is even entered. Even though his name didn't come up in Triple Crown conversations until well after the Preakness, it is safe to call Wiseman's Ferry the key to Saturday's Belmont Stakes. "I didn't even know anybody knew I was in the race," joked trainer Niall O'Callaghan. "I'm 20-1." Wiseman's Ferry hasn't won a race higher than Grade III caliber, but he brings the one element crucial to the determination of how a race develops: speed. The absence of it enabled War Emblem to wire the field in the Kentucky Derby. The presence of only fleeting speed in the Preakness allowed him to win without expending too much energy before the stretch run. Now, as War Emblem tries to become only the 12th Triple Crown winner, the end result will hinge on how fast the race is from the start. "The only thing that concerns me is the pace," said Bob Baffert, War Emblem's trainer. "With Wiseman's Ferry in there, everyone's excited. They're all counting on him to soften me up." Saving something for the stretch run is vitally important in this New York marathon. At 1 1/2 miles, the Belmont is likely the longest race these horses will ever run; getting locked in a speed duel over the first half-mile can be lethal to their chances of victory. "Wiseman's Ferry is one-dimensional. He just goes and runs," said Baffert. (He should know; the same can be said for War Emblem.) "That horse can't go slow. He doesn't know what slow is," said Perfect Drift's trainer, Murray Johnson. The dilemma for jockeys and trainers is whether to let another horse set the pace and run the risk of never catching him (as happened with War Emblem in the Derby) or to make the leader work for the lead and run the risk of burning out your own colt in the process. "We'll probably go to the lead, hook up with Wiseman's Ferry and hope they don't go too fast," said Baffert. If Proud Citizen -- runner-up in the Derby and third in the Preakness -- also decides to press the early pace, this could be the biggest challenge War Emblem has had to face in getting to his customary spot out front. "I don't think that horse will run as well if a horse gets in front of him," said Proud Citizen's trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, winner of four Belmont Stakes. "If you're hellbent on beating him, that's the way to do it." A hot early pace would work to the advantage of the group sitting just behind the leaders, waiting to pass them as they tire in Belmont's sweeping far turn. The extensive homestretch at Belmont Park is no place to try to make up ground -- every Belmont since 1933 has been won by a horse in no worse than third place down the stretch. So being close to the lead is critical. But not too close. Eight times in the last 10 years, the frontrunner after 1 1/4 miles (the distance of the Kentucky Derby) has failed to hold onto to the lead. This strategy plays to the strengths of stalkers like Perfect Drift, who took third in the Derby, and Sunday Break, who won the Grade II Peter Pan at Belmont two weeks ago. Perfect Drift's jockey, Eddie Delahoussaye, has won the Belmont twice and finished second in his other attempt. Gary Stevens, who will ride Sunday Break, has three firsts and a second in this event since 1995. "When you're coming from behind, you're at the mercy of the pace," said Johnson. "It's just like in the Derby; I can't beat [War Emblem] by myself." Johnson shouldn't have to worry about that on Saturday. This Belmont field features the hottest 3-year-olds in the country. The top four finishers from the Kentucky Derby (War Emblem, Proud Citizen, Perfect Drift, Medaglia D'Oro) and the top three from the Preakness (War Emblem, Magic Weisner, Proud Citizen) will be on hand. Plus, all the entries new to this Triple Crown circuit -- Wiseman's Ferry, Sunday Break, Artax Too, Like a Hero and Sarava -- are coming off victories. Still, when the field turns for home, all eyes will be on War Emblem and his desperate dash for the wire. "I will be very surprised if he doesn't turn the backside in front," said Lukas. "The biggest challenge for us," Baffert said, "is whether he can go a mile and a half in full flight." History hinges on the answer to that very question. This prognosticator's predictions: Win: Perfect Drift
David Seigerman is covering the Belmont Stakes for CNNSI.com.
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