Racing toward history

With War Emblem poised to become horse racing's first Triple Crown winner since 1978, CNNSI.com spoke with Sports Illustrated horse racing writer emeritus William Nack about War Emblem's place in history.

CNNSI.com: If War Emblem wins the Belmont, how will he be perceived and measured against the previous 11 Triple Crown winners?

William Nack: It's difficult to say at this point because we haven't seen his Belmont. Secretariat's Belmont was the most astonishing of all and really announced him as the greatest Triple Crown winner of all time. With this horse, it's still difficult to say. He won the Illinois Derby, the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, and there's still a lot of doubters out there. I'm not among them. This is a hell of a horse, and I think he's going to win here on Saturday. If the pace is reasonably sane, I think he'll win.

CNNSI.com: Are those doubts grounded in the fact that he didn't come out of one of the traditional Derby prep races, in addition to the way he was purchased right before the Derby?

Nack: I think that's where they come from. They come from the fact that this was a really unconventional approach. I love it because this is really horse racing at its very best. The Saudi prince who bought the horse at less than $1 million has got to be the luckiest Arab in the Middle East. Bob Baffert has already had several Derby winners, he's had Triple Crown candidates, and lo and behold, three weeks before the Kentucky Derby this horse is dumped in his lap. He is now the luckiest trainer in America. And the jockey, who had been riding in relative obscurity in California, is now the luckiest jockey in America. And it's all horse racing.

I see nothing wrong with buying a horse three weeks before the Kentucky Derby and winning the Derby with him. It doesn't happen all the time, but this is so classically horse racing. It emphasizes the factor of luck and the role luck can play in it. It's been the deciding factor in this horse's life. And there's a tremendous amount of jealousy involved. Guys are just jealous of this horse and this owner and this trainer and the jockey, but I think it's wonderful. If it had not been for Baffert, this horse would not have even been in the Kentucky Derby. He was headed elsewhere. Baffert took him over and worked him one time. The exercise rider came back and said, "This is the real deal." And Baffert said, "OK, let's go," and they went to the Derby.

CNNSI.com: Is War Emblem perhaps better suited for the Belmont than either of Baffert's other Triple Crown threats, Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet (1998)?

Nack: There's no question about it. There's an axiom: Speed is always dangerous in the Belmont Stakes. Always dangerous. I've seen a lot of horses win on the front end -- Riva Ridge, Secretariat. If War Emblem can slow the pace down to get the opening half-mile between 47 and 48 seconds, he's going to be sitting on a throne going into the backside. The question is whether the competitors are going to allow him to do that.

CNNSI.com: These other trainers don't want to see history made at their expense. How does the prospect of a Triple Crown affect their work leading into this race? Obviously, they are training their horses to win, but there also must be an element of training to beat War Emblem.

Nack: I think that's what they're doing. They're going to take a shot at him early, and that's the only scenario I can conceive of that will bring this horse down. Guys like D. Wayne Lukas and Niall O'Callaghan taking an early shot at him, pressing the pace, making him use himself up early. When they pass the mile pole, which is after a half-mile, look at the Teletimer. If it's anything between 47 and 48, he'll be golden.

CNNSI.com: There are still people who believe that winning the Triple Crown will not be enough for War Emblem to solidify his reputation. Does he have to go on and have a strong fall campaign and remain a champion to be considered in the same company as other Triple Crown winners?

Nack: He probably does. But you know, I used to be an elitist. And an elitist is defined as a person who asks before the Belmont Stakes, when a horse is going for the Triple Crown, Is this horse worthy? That is a baloney question. I've been doing watching the Triple Crown since 1955, and I've come to the inescapable conclusion that if a horse wins the Triple Crown, he is automatically worthy. He will answer that question himself. Here's a horse who, if he wins the Triple Crown, will have won on three different racetracks at three different distances in a very short period of five weeks. That automatically makes him worthy.

 

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