Posted: Fri March 1, 2013 12:05PM; Updated: Fri March 1, 2013 1:18PM
Chris Burke
Chris Burke>INSIDE THE NFL DRAFT

2013 NFL Draft Big Board 3.0

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Sharrif Floyd had 46 tackles and three sacks in 2012, wowing scouts at the combine with his versatility.
Sharrif Floyd had 46 tackles and three sacks in 2012, wowing scouts at the combine with his versatility.
Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY Sports

Cards on the table, I expected there to be some seismic shakeups between Big Board 2.0 and 3.0, because: a) the combine presented a chance to see these guys up close; and b) my personal intake of prospects' game films increased exponentially after the Super Bowl.

Instead, I'm more convinced now than ever that the top 15 or so players in this draft are pretty set in stone ... and that Round 2 and beyond will be fascinating, due to an extremely high number of comparable prospects.

That's not to say that everyone stayed put -- there definitely were some guys on the move, either up or down, for Big Board 3.0, plus the addition of a few new faces.

And, as always, I offer the reminder that this is a ranking of the top 40 prospects, not necessarily a guess at where they'll be selected come the draft. You can read my rationale for some key decisions in this edition of the Big Board.

Chris Burke's NFL Draft Big Board
1
Luke Joeckel
Texas A&M, junior
6-6, 306
OT
With the expected arrival of Alex Smith in Kansas City, the Chiefs can hone in fully on selecting the draft's best player. For my money, that's still Joeckel, despite a push by Eric Fisher. Nothing against Fisher, but Joeckel's extended reign as the No. 1 prospect is not by accident.
 
2
Chance Warmack
Alabama, senior
6-2, 317
OG
OK, so Warmack's 5.49 40-yard dash at the combine looked more like Homer Simpson running on a treadmill than Usain Bolt shooting out of the blocks. Drop him at your own risk. He's still as dominant an interior line prospect as you'll see.
 
3
Eric Fisher
Central Michigan, senior
6-7, 306
OT
The Eric Fisher hype train is running full steam, thanks to a sensational Senior Bowl showing and impressive work at the combine. He may wind up the No. 1 pick, and it would be hard to argue.
 
4
Sharrif Floyd
Florida, junior
6-2, 297
DT
Floyd enjoyed the most meteoric jump from Big Board 2.0 to 3.0, moving from No. 22 overall into the top five. The reasoning: Floyd's a versatile defensive lineman who just ran a sub-5.0 40 as a 300-pounder. Floyd could play in a 3-4 or 4-3 front, too, so most teams should have interest.
 
5
Dion Jordan
Oregon, senior
6-6, 248
DE/OLB
As expected, Jordan put his athleticism on display at the combine -- his 4.6 40 was the third-best time among the defensive line group. Of course, Jordan's best NFL fit probably is as a 3-4 OLB. He's awaiting shoulder surgery, which might cause some franchises to approach cautiously.
 
6
Dee Milliner
Alabama, junior
6-1, 198
CB
No top-end speed, eh? Milliner quieted that critique with a 4.37 40, one-hundreth of a second off the best cornerback mark (Darius Slay). Peter King's reaction Monday: Milliner won't last past the Lions' pick at No. 5.
 
7
Lane Johnson
Oklahoma, senior
6-6, 303
OT
The sky is the limit right now for Johnson, the former high school quarterback whose 4.72 40 had scouts drooling. Johnson already has exceptional quickness, and he figures to add weight and get better with his technique. A top-10 pick.
 
8
Jarvis Jones
Georgia, junior
6-2, 245
OLB
I'm struggling on Jones, and it's party his own doing. He opted not to work out at the combine, putting a lot of pressure on his coming Pro Day showing. He remains one of this draft class' most obvious talents, but lingering concerns over his health (spinal stenosis) could drive him down.
 
9
Jonathan Cooper
North Carolina, senior
6-2, 311
OG
Like the Joeckel-Fisher discussion, Cooper might be zeroing in on Warmack. Part of the Cooper rally is that teams think he could play some center, too, upping his versatility. He's quick (5.07 40) and able to disrupt defenders at a similar rate to Warmack.
 
10
Ezekiel Ansah
BYU, senior
6-5, 271
DE
Ansah did nothing in Indianapolis to stunt his recent momentum. His 4.63 40 time was top 10 for all defensive linemen and linebackers, with a 1.56 10-yard split displaying his explosiveness. Ansah's a bundle of potential right now.
 
11
Bjoern Werner
Florida State, junior
6-3, 266
DE/OLB
I've gone somewhat lukewarm on Werner. He does not always finish plays (especially run plays), and there is little to suggest that he can be used in coverage. Maybe he can find a way to succeed in a 3-4, but he would be better off as a 4-3 end.
 
12
Sheldon Richardson
Missouri, junior
6-2, 294
DT
Maybe an overshoot for Richardson but, like Ansah, he should only get better with NFL coaching. His size, for a defensive tackle -- sub-300 pounds, especially -- will give some teams pause. He makes up for it with his motor and agility.
 
13
Cordarrelle Patterson
Tennessee, junior
6-2, 216
WR
Patterson remains a little raw as a receiver, as evidenced by his so-so route-running at the combine. But 6-2 receivers with 4.4 speed and a 37-inch vertical do not come around all that often.
 
14
Star Lotulelei
Utah, senior
6-3, 320
DT
The problem for Lotulelei is an incomplete medical report out of the combine, which cited a possible heart issue. Should further exams rule out significant problems, Lotulelei will get back in the top 10. He is a sometimes-dominant tackle, capable of playing multiple spots.
 
15
Barkevious Mingo
LSU, junior
6-4, 241
DE/OLB
I'm a big fan of Mingo's, and his drop in this Big Board (down from No. 9) is more the product of wanting to push others up the list. He ran an impressive 4.58 40 at the combine and looks the part of a dynamic pass rusher. Teams will have to figure out why that talent did not translate to better numbers at LSU.
 
16
Kenny Vaccaro
Texas, senior
6-0, 240
S
A slight bump for Vaccaro, up from No. 17 last time. He remains the clear top safety product in this class, even after a slightly disappointing 4.62 40. Vaccaro is, to steal a Mike Mayock phrase, quicker than he is fast.
 
17
Xavier Rhodes
Florida State, junior
6-1, 210
CB
While speaking with the media at the combine, Rhodes explained how he's "not a typical corner," in terms of "height, size, weight, speed, all the measureables." For the most part that all works in his favor -- Rhodes plays a big, physical game that should translate well to the NFL.
 
18
Damontre Moore
Texas A&M, junior
6-4, 250
DE
Why are you making it so hard to love you, Damontre? I've been high on Moore's potential (and I still am -- once he adds a better pass-rush repertoire to his current talents, he'll be a force), but a 4.95 40? A dozen bench reps? Not good.
 
19
Alec Ogletree
Georgia, junior
6-2, 242
LB
Ogletree had to answer a lot of combine questions about his recent DUI, from teams and the media alike. The talent, undeniably, is still there, and Ogletree can play for any defensive scheme. But what a bad time for a boneheaded mistake ...
 
20
Keenan Allen
California, junior
6-2, 206
WR
Allen likely would have been a middle-of-the-road performer in physical drills at the combine, but he did not work out because of a knee issue. He gets the most of his abilities; can he solidify his stock at his Pro Day?
 
21
Datone Jones
UCLA, senior
6-3, 283
DE
When he frees himself up from blocks, he's a devastating impact player on the line. The question is: Can he do that consistently? And the follow-up: Would he be better off as a defensive end or undersized DT?
 
22
Tavon Austin
West Virginia, senior
5-9, 174
WR
A 4.34 40 at the combine confirmed what we knew, which is that Austin can be a home-run threat at any level. The key for him, though, will be landing with a team creative enough in its play-calling to take advantage.
 
23
Alex Okafor
Texas, senior
6-4, 264
DE
A hip flexor picked up during Senior Bowl week kept Okafor from participating fully at the combine. Some teams may view him as a 3-4 OLB candidate, but he would be better off as a 4-3 end, preferably on a team with solid tackles in place.
 
24
Desmond Trufant
Washington, senior
5-11, 190
CB
Once you get past Milliner and Rhodes, the debate is open at cornerback. Put me in Trufant's camp, thanks in large part to a surprisingly fast 4.38 40. He is not a finished product, but that speed will mask some deficiencies.
 
25
D.J. Fluker
Alabama, senior
6-5, 339
OT
Fluker rumbles up into the top 25 from No. 26 last time around. While he might have a more secure NFL future as a guard, the fact that he dropped 16 pounds from the Senior Bowl to the combine indicates he's focused on improving his quickness to stay at tackle.
 
26
Geno Smith
West Virginia, senior
6-3, 220
QB
I'm hard-pressed to remember a more ho-hum group of quarterbacks headed into that draft than this year's (maybe 2000, when Chad Pennington was the only QB taken in the top 64). Smith had a chance to separate himself at the combine and, other than running a 4.59 40, failed to do so.
 
27
Larry Warford
Kentucky, senior
6-3, 333
OG
If Warmack's 5.49 40 concerns you, well ... Warford clocked in at 5.58. But the truth is that Warford never looked like a guard capable of clearing to the second level consistently. My guess is he slips to Round 2, then overperforms as a rookie.
 
28
Tank Carradine
Florida State, senior
6-4, 276
DE
"I expect to be 100 percent in April." That's what Carradine, coming off a November ACL injury, told reporters at the combine. If that's true, and he proves it at a late-April Pro Day, he could skyrocket. Remember, he had 11 sacks last season before getting hurt.
 
29
Tyler Eifert
Notre Dame, senior
6-5, 250
TE
I still wish Eifert had produced more at Notre Dame -- one of the reasons I listed Zach Ertz ahead of him on Big Boards 1.0 and 2.0. Eifert outperformed Ertz at the combine, however, which could drive him into Round 1.
 
30
Matt Elam
Florida, junior
5-9, 208
S
Some scouts worry about Elam's size and his ability to cover tight ends. That skepticism would thrill me if I was a rival GM, because Elam, with his heavy hitting and playmaking abilities, could turn into a steal.
 
31
Arthur Brown
Kansas State, senior
6-0, 241
LB
Every time I think of really boosting Brown, I recall Kansas State's game against Oregon, when Brown looked totally lost against the zone-read. Still, he is a solid prospect and can play a number of positions. A nagging shoulder injury is a worry.
 
32
Sylvester Williams
North Carolina, senior
6-2, 313
DT
Williams headed to the combine off a strong Senior Bowl week, and nothing really changed at Lucas Oil Stadium. Again, this defensive tackle class is deep and almost interchangeable.
 
33
Kevin Minter
LSU, junior
5-11, 246
LB
Everyone focused on Manti Te'o's slow 40 time (he's next), but Minter beat him by all of one-hundreth of a second (4.81 to 4.82). It was not a banner combine for the ILB class, though I still prefer Minter's ability to both drive between the tackles and get outside in pursuit.
 
34
Manti Te'o
Notre Dame, senior
6-1, 241
LB
See, I promised we get to him. Is Te'o's 4.82 40 disappointing? Sure. Is it a surprise? Hardly. Te'o always has been a better football player than an athlete. Assuming he did well in his interviews with teams, he has a Round 1 shot.
 
35
Eddie Lacy
Alabama, junior
5-11, 231
RB
A hamstring injury hampered Lacy at the combine, so teams will watch anxiously his coming Pro Day. He also measured in shorter and heavier, respectively, than his listed 6-1, 220 at Alabama. Lacy remains the draft's best RB, aided by a lack of elite talent elsewhere.
 
36
DeAndre Hopkins
Clemson, junior
6-1, 214
WR
Patterson might have a higher upside, and Allen may wind up producing more consistent reception numbers. Hopkins, though, will make some QB very happy, because he catches just about everything thrown his way.
 
37
Kyle Long
Oregon, senior
6-6, 313
OT
I sort of view Long the same way I view Ansah, in that once he gains some more experience, he could be phenomenal. Long ran a 4.94 and, with the athleticism to play tackle or guard, might wind up sneaking into the first round before all is said and done.
 
38
Jesse Williams
Alabama, senior
6-3, 323
DT
As of yet, I've remained a lot less smitten with Williams than others. He did not work out at the combine, either, as he rehabs a knee injury. But he commanded a lot of attention from offensive lines at Alabama, and with several DTs falling (Jonathan Hankins, John Jenkins, etc.), Williams' stock improves.
 
39
Jonathan Cyprien
Florida International, senior
6-0, 217
S
Another player who joins the top 40 despite not working out at the combine -- a hamstring held back Cyprien. There was more than enough disappointment in Indy, though, over Cyprien's inability to test to prove that he's on plenty of radars.
 
40
Quinton Patton
Louisiana Tech, senior
6-0, 204
WR
Patton is somewhat reminiscent of Keenan Allen, because neither guy will wow you as, say, Marquise Goodwin did with a 4.27 40, but both are very reliable receivers. Patton showed time and again that he knows how to play -- and produce at -- the position.
 
 
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BANKS: Mock Draft 2.0
POSITION RANKINGS: Offense | Defense
PERLOFF: Five biggest risers
 
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