Palmer, Flynn moves make sense, but they're not guaranteed fixes

Carson Palmer could take over for a Cardinals team that saw four QBs start games last season.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP

Two deals felt inevitable this morning: Carson Palmer to Arizona, Matt Flynn to Oakland. With the Flynn deal going down Monday morning, Palmer to the Cardinals should be next. The moves made too much sense not to happen. Sense, yes. Whether they'll solve problems in quarterback-needy places ... that's another issue. Palmer has a much better chance when it comes to raising Arizona than Flynn has to save Oakland.

Palmer to the Cardinals. It's likely Oakland gets a fourth- or fifth-round pick in return, and Palmer, 33, signs a deal commensurate with his recent performance but recognizing his chance for a revival playing for Bruce Arians and playing with Larry Fitzgerald. I understand why Palmer wouldn't take a financial haircut in Oakland: I wouldn't have either, knowing the Raiders were a short-term place and understanding if he held his ground, the Raiders might enable him to go to a place that fit him better.

A couple of things about this move that I like: Last year, I remember going to Indianapolis to write about the Colts when Arians was the interim coach. "I hate the West Coast Offense,'' Arians said. Arians wanted a big-armed quarterback stretching the defense, and it showed in Luck's numbers. In 2012, Luck had the second-longest average pass length in the league, 10.17 yards downfield. Match that with Palmer's desire to show he can be the big-armed thrower Arians needs. Believe me, Palmer chafes at the impression he doesn't have the arm he used to. In his first half-season with the Raiders, he was among the NFL's yards-per-attempt leaders, because coach Hue Jackson liked to stretch the defense.

Let's not be delusional about Palmer. You can't say he's a premier player anymore, but you also can't say he can't play. He threw for 4,018 yards, and his interception percentage (14 picks on 565 attempts, 2.5 percent) was lower than that of Drew Brees and Eli Manning. He wants to play the Arians way. I believe Arians is the best coach in the league for Palmer. I also believe Palmer wouild buy in totally to Arians' plan, and I hear he's excited about a chance in Arizona. A move would allow him to stay close to his southern California home, and to play in a system that wouldn't be a reach for his game. And Palmer would have the kind of reliable deep-threat receiver in Larry Fitzgerald that few quarterbacks have at their disposal.

Does that mean Arizona will contend? I doubt it sincerely. The leaky offensive line must be significantly better to give the immobile Palmer a chance to play well. But of all the quarterbacks on the market or in the 2013 draft, Palmer gives the Cardinals the best chance to be competitive as the fourth-best team in a suddenly very good NFC West.

Flynn to the Raiders. It appears this deal got done without Oakland GM Reggie McKenzie touching his 2013 draft, and that's good (the Raiders will send 2014 and '15 picks to Seattle for Flynn). The Raiders have only three picks in the top five rounds -- third, 66th and 100th overall. Then they have a 71-pick drought before choosing again, in the sixth round. According to Jay Glazer, both picks the Seahawks are getting come from the later rounds.

It's a smart move for Oakland, even if it's risky; Flynn has started only two games in the NFL. One was a colossal performance as he threw for a franchise-record six touchdowns against Detroit on the final Sunday of the 2011 regular season. It was against Detroit, granted. Awful secondary. And you can't overpay based on that game against a toasted secondary. But a mid-round pick and the prospect of a low-round conditional choice is not overpaying for Flynn, who McKenzie helped scout before the 2008 draft.

Put yourself in McKenzie's shoes. You can pay a quarterback you're not sold on, Palmer, $13 million this year, another year the cap is so tight it's squeezing every position group on the roster. Or you can pay Matt Flynn $5.25 million in salary, not knowing if he's going to be your quarterback of the future but knowing he's got a better chance than anyone on your current roster.

Put yourself in Seattle GM John Schneider's shoes. Do you want your confirmed backup quarterback taking up $7.25 million on your cap this year? Or do you trust your offensive coordinator and quarterback guru, Darrell Bevell, to train another guy to back up Russell Wilson? I'll take the latter choice any day of the week.

Finally, what are the chances Flynn becomes Oakland's answer at quarterback? Thirty percent, maybe? That's about 25 points higher than Palmer, with his salary, which the Raiders just weren't going to live with. I can't sit here and say the Raiders will get themselves a great player. I can sit here and say the Raiders are taking an intelligent calculated risk for the right price.

BURKE: Raiders again swing deal to try to find answer at QB

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So what does this do to the draft?

Arizona with Palmer. Oakland with Flynn. And, on Friday, Buffalo with the signing of Kevin Kolb to a two-year contract. Teams with major quarterback needs are making moves.

I believe the Cardinals are now out of the first-round quarterback market. I think Oakland could still take one, with only three potential impact picks in this draft, but I think it's likely Oakland looks elsewhere at No. 3 overall. Buffalo? The Bills could do anything at No. 8, including taking a long-term prospect at quarterback like West Virginia's Geno Smith.

I talked to one personnel man Sunday (sorry for the Easter phone call) who presented this scenario to me: "I think what these deals do -- if they happen -- is impact the tackle market more than the quarterback market."

Smart thinking. His point: Arizona is desperate to shore up the offensive line; left tackle was a wasteland between D'Anthony Batiste and Nate Potter last year. Buffalo could use a bookend tackle to play opposite Cordy Glenn. Oakland has a lot of holes, and I doubt it would choose a tackle that high. But McKenzie is a value drafter, and if he loves Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson, the two top tackles after prospective top pick Luke Joeckel, he'll pick one.

The tackle market at the top of the first round is going to be on fire. I will be surprised if Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson aren't taken in the first 11 picks. San Diego is 11th.

TROTTER: Barkley's Pro Day provides more questions than answers

Want to see an NFL record for teams trying to trade down? Tune in to this draft.

Gil Brandt has been visiting colleges to scout players since 1958. That season, around the middle of the year, he dropped into Purdue while working for the Rams to scout the seniors, and a coach said to him, "Gosh, Gil, you're the third scout we've had in this year.'' As if that were some sort of big number. Brandt laughed about it Saturday. "Now,'' he said, "a normal day in the fall would be seven scouts at a place like Purdue.'' Brandt said 16 teams showed up at Louisiana-Lafayette's Pro Day, and 23 at Louisiana Tech's. "Scouting used to be a one-story motel out in the country,'' Brandt said. "Now it's the Sears Tower. And growing." With the latest twist being jacked-up budgets for psychological testing; the next frontier, if you listen to Brandt.

And so what has all this information mining told Brandt about the 2013 draft?

"A totally unique draft,'' he said. "I don't think when we look at this draft five years from now that we'll have as many Pro Bowlers in the top 10 than you had in either of the last two drafts. Like, I think if Ryan Tannehill were in this draft, he'd be the top pick -- and he was [eighth] last year. Here's how I'd put it: Between 11 and 50, there's a lot of good players. But they're very close between 11 and 50. And I'd say if you took the 45th player in 2013, he'd be slightly better than the 45th player in 2012. That's the strength of this draft -- the depth.''

BANKS: Mock Draft

BURKE: Big Board | Offensive position rankings | Defensive position rankings

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Why I see the stalled Revis-to-Tampa deal as inevitable.

The Jets are in deep think mode over the possible trade of the rehabbing Darrelle Revis. And though it's certainly tough to consider trading the best player on your team -- and it's a deal I wouldn't do; I would pay the man -- I think at the end of the day the Jets will do it at least two days before the start of the April 25 first round. (Can't be on draft day, obviously, because the Bucs will need to do a thorough physical exam before agreeing to the deal, which is likely to contain one 2013 draft choice.)

The Jets could do the right thing and satisfy Revis' long-term contract demands and have the best corner in the league (at least the best one east of Seattle, if Richard Sherman is to be believed) on their team through the rest of his prime. But no one sees owner Woody Johnson agreeing to pay Revis $15 million or so per year. Johnson, I'm hearing, is categorically against extending Revis. So let's extrapolate.

The Bucs, assuming Revis passes the physical, are willing to surrender a first-round pick and either a second- or a third- to acquire Revis. Those picks would either come both in 2013 or 2014, or one in each draft.

If Revis leaves in free-agency -- the Jets cannot franchise him after the 2013 season, by contract agreement -- the most the Jets would get is a likely third-round compensatory draft pick.

So what would you rather have, Jets fans:

• Revis on your team for one rebuilding season, getting the 97th overall pick in 2015, or ...

• Revis dumped for, say, Tampa Bay's first-round pick this month -- the 13th pick in 2013 -- and Tampa's second-rounder in 2014. If it's mid-round, that'd be the 48th overall pick in 2014.

One pick, 25 months from now, between the third and fourth rounds? Or two picks in the next 13 months, both likely in the top 50?

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Tweetup time in Arizona.

I'll be running (okay, slowly jogging) Pat's Run, the 4.2-mile race in Tempe, Ariz., that honors the memory of the late Pat Tillman, the Cardinals safety who left the lucrative life of the NFL after 9/11 to serve in Afghanistan and was tragically killed on duty in Afghanistan in 2004. And the night before the race, I'm going to host a Tweetup along with some Cardinals. The details:

What: Peter King's Pre-Pat's Run Tweetup, hosted by @AZCardinals.

When: Friday, April 19, 5-7 p.m.

Where: Tom's Tavern, 2 N. Central Ave., downtown Phoenix ...

Admission: $40, which includes two drink tickets, food (pasta stations, to get prospective runners ready for Saturday morning's race) and a football panel. All of the $40 will go directly to the Tillman Military Scholars program.

The panel: I'll be joined by new Cards coach Bruce Arians, GM Steve Keim, club president Michael Bidwill and a couple of other guests TBA. We'll have a panel discussion, and attendees will be able to ask questions and get autographs and photos.

The goal: To raise at least $10,000 for the Tillman Military Scholars. Our goal is to fund one student -- a returning veteran, or the spouse of a veteran -- for one semester at one of 16 universities used by the Scholars. The program has invested $3.2 million in sending 230 scholars to college.

Ticket limit: There will be 250 tickets sold. Call 602.379.0102 to obtain them, or visit Cardinal box office locations. Tickets ordered by April 6 will be mailed to buyers. Tickets ordered after that can be picked up at the tavern the night of the event.

Auction: We'll have some auction items, many of them Cardinal-centric, but also a Peyton Manning autographed football.

Looking forward to seeing all of you there that night.

Also, for those looking to contribute to the cause of the legacy of education for veterans and their families, which was so important to Pat Tillman, I'll have information for you next Monday.

Quote of the Week I

"The thing about the draft no one's found out how to measure yet -- and it's hard, and they're trying -- is a lot of college guys, when they make money, they stop working the way they worked before they got the money. The way this works, whatever you did last year to get good, you've got to do more now to stay good. And that's how a lot of players fall off. They don't learn that."

-- Longtime NFL scout and current NFL.com draft czar Gil Brandt, 80, to me on Saturday, discussing the science of drafting.

Quote of the Week II

"More than anything, it was just the opportunity to spend the rest of my career with a team you know is going to win and win big and win pretty soon. And that to me was exciting.''

-- Tony Romo, to DallasCowboys.com, after signing a contract extension Friday that will average $17 million a year over six years.

BURKE: Romo deal could be an expensive mistake

Quote of the Week III

"The last couple years, I've had to battle through some injuries and it definitely wasn't ideal, but I think I battled through them well. Now, honestly, this is the best I've felt in years, maybe ever. I'm just excited to get back to my old self and to be feeling healthy and strong.''

-- New Rams left tackle Jake Long, last Thursday.

Quote of the Week IV

"At best he'll be a post-draft signing, but if I were to guess, I think his career is over."

-- SiriusXM NFL Radio host Pat Kirwan, on Brandon Jacobs and the precipitous decline of his career.

Classic case of a player overplaying his hand, if you ask me.

Quote of the Week V

"I lived a lifestyle like 90 percent of ballplayers. You sat around and had six beers after a game, went to dinner and had another six, and then guys are calling you to a bar where you're drinking more.''

-- San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Scott Proctor, talking about the change in baseball clubhouse drinking from ample to nearly nonexistent, to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Stat of the Week I

For his 14 starts, 17 touchdown throws and 83.2 passer rating in two Arizona seasons, Kevin Kolb made $20.5 million.

Add the $12 million Kolb made his last year in Philly (2-3 in five starts), and you've got a pretty nice way to make a living. A pretty battered way too: Kolb's been beaten up regularly over the last three years.

Stat of the Week II

Aaron Rodgers has 19 more career touchdown passes than Bart Starr.

Rodgers' single-season career low in touchdown passes, in five starting years: 28.

Starr's single-season career high in touchdown passes, in 14 part- to full-time starting years: 16.

Factoid of the Week That May Interest Only Me I

Final Four contestant Wichita State is 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament, including a six-point win over the No. 1 team in the country, Gonzaga. Wichita State was 0-2 versus Evansville this year.

Syracuse, also in the Final Four, went 4-5 in the last three weeks before the tournament.

Factoid of the Week That May Interest Only Me II

La Salle, of Philadelphia, flew f