Posted: Wed April 10, 2013 12:50PM; Updated: Wed April 10, 2013 3:17PM
Don Banks
Don Banks>INSIDE THE NFL

2013 NFL Mock Draft 5.0

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Eric Fisher has been steadily rising in profile since the end of the college football season.
Eric Fisher has been steadily rising in profile since the end of the college football season.
Carlos Osorio/AP

With only 15 days remaining until the pick-fest starts, change is in the air for the 2013 NFL Draft. Or at least my 5.0 mock draft. For starters, we're flopping the draft's two elite offensive tackles this time around, going with the rising Eric Fisher of Central Michigan at No. 1 to Kansas City, and dropping Texas A&M standout Luke Joeckel to No. 4 Philadelphia.

It's that kind of low-profile year in draft-land, with a pair of offensive tackles, both of whom are barely separated in terms of reputation, making a modest headline by switching places.

But that's not the only movement we're forecasting. We're projecting a couple first-round trades this time around. I'm on record as saying the Darrelle Revis deal will happen with Tampa Bay and New York, so we've re-ordered our picks to reflect that, moving the Jets to No. 13 and the Bucs out of the first round. With selections now at both No. 9 and 13, New York is in position to take a chance on ... wait for it ... a quarterback. I'm giving the Jets West Virginia's Geno Smith at No. 13, after New York takes LSU outside linebacker-defensive end Barkevious Mingo at No. 9.

Lower in the first round, we have pick-rich San Francisco moving up from No. 31 to Dallas' No. 18 slot to take Florida State defensive end Tank Carradine. The cap-strapped Cowboys, with plenty of needs, can really use the extra picks they get from the 49ers, and still are in position to improve their shabby offensive line at No. 31.

It all makes sense to me. But something tells me the next two weeks will change the draft's first-round outlook at least a couple more times.

 
1
Eric Fisher
OT Central Michigan
Sr.6-7306
 
 
After going with Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel atop my first four mocks of the year, I've been swayed by the Eric Fisher-at-No. 1 movement. This is the time of year when you start to hear way too much about a player's "upside," but it would seem the more athletic Fisher has a bit of an edge in that department over Joeckel. I guess we'll know who K.C. really likes if it starts early exclusive contract negotiations with one of them.
 
2
Dion Jordan
DE/OLB Oregon
Sr.6-6248
 
 
The Jaguars opt for adding a dynamic pass rusher, rather than the disruptive defensive tackle from Florida, Sharrif Floyd. Both look likely for top-five billing and impact-player status.
 
3
Sharrif Floyd
DT Florida
Jr.6-3297
 
 
The Raiders' depth chart at defensive tackle is a wasteland, with both Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour missing. So Floyd or Utah's Star Lotulelei would seem to be in Oakland's wheelhouse at this position of greatest need.
 
4
Luke Joeckel
OT Texas A&M
Jr.6-6306
 
 
I still can't pull the trigger on the Eagles taking West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith, because my sense is Chip Kelly views Florida State's E.J. Manuel a more viable option early in the second round. In Joeckel, the Eagles get one of the draft's elite offensive tackles and give themselves alternatives as both starters at the position, Jason Peters and Todd Herremans, return from injury-marred 2012 seasons.
 
5
Dee Milliner
CB Alabama
Jr.6-0201
 
 
Given the need at offensive tackle, it wouldn't be a stunner if the Lions, missing out on Joeckel and Fisher, made Oklahoma's Lane Johnson the third tackle to go in the top five. But cornerback is another obvious spot to upgrade, and Milliner gives Detroit a day-one starter at the position.
 
6
Ziggy Ansah
DE BYU
Sr.6-5271
 
 
The more versatile players the Browns stockpile, the easier their transition to a 3-4 defense. Ansah has played every position on the defensive line and at outside linebacker, sometimes during a single game. And Cleveland will grow to love his effort, intensity and playmaking instinct.
 
7
Lane Johnson
OT Oklahoma
Jr.6-6303
 
 
The run on offensive tackles continues, with the Cardinals feeling fortunate to have their need and their draft slot match up so nicely. Johnson gives Arizona somebody to plug in at left tackle and hopefully consider the position addressed for the coming four or five years.
 
8
Chance Warmack
G Alabama
Sr.6-2317
 
 
Moving the Bills away from Geno Smith and the top-10 quarterback selection feels like the correct wind direction at this point. As everyone has speculated for months, I look for Buffalo to find a way to grab Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib either later in the first round or early in the second. Warmack is no consolation prize. He's a superb replacement for departed free-agent guard Andy Levitre.
 
9
Barkevious Mingo
OLB/DE LSU
Jr.6-4241
 
 
The Jets defense gets the opening dose of first-round attention, with a pass rusherin Mingo who can interject Rex Ryan's 3-4 formation with play-making ability and pressure from the edge. For an offensive addition, New York will wait until the No. 13 pick they're going to get from Tampa Bay in exchange for Revis.
 
10
Star Lotulelei
DT Utah
Sr.6-3320
 
 
North Carolina guard Jonathan Cooper could be tempting, but Lotulelei seems to be returning to consensus top-10 status after his heart condition scare surfaced at the NFL Scouting Combine. The Titans could use a disruptive force in the middle of their defensive line. Somebody offenses would have to account for like they did back in the Albert Haynesworth glory days.
 
11
Jonathan Cooper
G North Carolina
Sr.6-2311
 
 
As long as the Chargers come out of the first round with any of the top five offensive linemen or two best defensive tackle prospects, they'll have every right to declare victory. In Cooper, San Diego would acquire a building-block piece to help restock an offensive line that disintegrated last season.
 
12
Xavier Rhodes
CB Florida St.
Jr.6-2210
 
 
Miami would have zero complaints if Rhodes is their guy. He'd slide right into the starting spot vacated by free agent Sean Smith. Some mockers have Rhodes going ahead of even Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner, but time will tell if NFL personnel evaluators agree.
 
13
Geno Smith
QB West Virginia
Sr.6-2218
 
 
Acquired from Buccaneers. Playing "Where's Geno?" is the most popular game of this 2013 draft season. After writing this week that the Darrelle Revis-to-the-Bucs trade makes too much sense to not happen, what choice did I have but to project the deal in my latest first-round mock? The Bucs will get their needed cornerback, and Rex Ryan will get the pass rush help he's been seeking for a few years now (see No. 9). Plus, the idea of the Jets landing a Geno and a Mingo in the first round leaves New York tabloid headline writers gleeful beyond description. We just created a draft scenario in which the Jets couldn't resist adding Smith to their crowded but underwhelming quarterback depth chart, even with all their defensive needs. Nothing would get Mark Sanchez's attention in 2013 quite like the selection of a first-round quarterback.
 
14
Sheldon Richardson
DT Missouri
Jr.6-2294
 
 
Richardson has been paired with the Panthers in this slot since January, and he's the easiest and most need-based pick. But Carolina might have a decision on its hands -- or even trade-down possibilities -- if receivers Cordarelle Patterson and Tavon Austin are still available. Finding more receiving weapons for quarterback Cam Newton to target is also on the Panthers' to-do list.
 
15
Jarvis Jones
OLB Georgia
Jr.6-2245
 
 
The Saints have plenty of solid options in this slot: a pass rusher like Jones to help the transition to a 3-4 defense under Rob Ryan; the top-rated safety in Texas playmaker Kenny Vaccaro; or the draft's next-best left tackle prospect in Florida State's Menelik Watson. But pass rushers are more difficult to find than safeties and offensive tackles, so Jones gets the nod based on value.
 
16
Tavon Austin
WR West Virginia
Sr.5-9174
 
 
We had the Rams missing out on Austin in our 4.0 mock, thanks to Tampa Bay taking him at No. 13. But not this time, which is why St. Louis fans should be rooting for the Revis deal to go down. The Rams can only hope the safety they need (Texas' Kenny Vaccaro) will be available when their No. 22 pick comes around, but I wouldn't count on it.
 
17
Kenny Vaccaro
S Texas
Sr.6-0214
 
 
With no Barkevious Mingo or Jarvis Jones to target at No. 17 in this scenario, the Steelers will grapple with a decision between Vacarro and Tennessee receiver Cordarelle Patterson, as the deep-threat replacement for Mike Wallace. But this is Pittsburgh we're talking about, and defense still rules. Vacarro is the draft's top safety, and he can both hit and cover. There's no way he's getting out of the teens.
 
18
Tank Carradine
DE Florida State
Sr.6-4276
 
 
Acquired from Cowboys. I'm connecting dots here, but there are several good reasons a 49ers-Cowboys trade makes sense to me. Carradine is a rising prospect and plenty of teams have him on their radar screen in the second half of the first round, the 49ers among them. With all their draft picks (13), the 49ers have plenty of ammo to move up after a player, and the No. 19 Giants seem enamored of Carradine as well. Lastly, Dallas has a salary cap crunch and multiple needs. A couple extra picks (a third and a fourth?) to slide from No. 18 to the 49ers' No. 31 slot could come in very handy for the Cowboys, who never shy away from moving around on draft weekend.
 
19
Alec Ogletree
LB Georgia
Jr.6-2242
 
 
The Giants could certainly stay true to form and take the best available pass rusher, which would be Florida State defensive end Bjoern Werner. Alabama right offensive tackle D.J. Fluker is another solid option for GM Jerry Reese. But Olgetree would upgrade the Giants' linebacking corps from an athleticism standpoint, and he's a proven commodity as a playmaker who consistently finds the football. If the Giants don't take him, the No. 20 Bears will.
 
20
Desmond Trufant
CB Washington
Sr.5-11190
 
 
With Olgetree gone just before their turn comes, the Bears will turn their attention to the secondary and select Trufant, who gives them youth and depth behind Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman and can contribute right away as the nickel corner. Trufant has been building momentum throughout the draft season and will wind up cracking the top 20.
 
21
D.J. Fluker
OT Alabama
Sr.6-5339
 
 
With Andre Smith's situation still unsettled, it has to be leading the Bengals to study the pro-ready right tackles in the first round. Fluker is the consensus best available, although Florida State's Menelik Watson is also well thought of and played the position for the Seminoles.
 
22
Matt Elam
S Florida
Jr.5-9208
 
 
With their first choice at safety, Vaccaro, taken at No. 17 by Pittsburgh, the Rams would face the question of settling for a second option at safety (Elam or Florida International's Jonathan Cyprien), or shifting their focus to either running back (Alabama's Eddie Lacy) or defensive tackle (North Carolina's Sylvester Williams). My sense is their need at safety is great enough to push them toward Elam or Cyprien.
 
23
Cordarrelle Patterson
WR Tennessee
Jr.6-2216
 
 
With Greg Jennings signed during free agency and Patterson falling to them in the first round, the Vikings won't be feeling the loss of Percy Harvin quite as much as everyone first assumed.
 
24
Datone Jones
DE UCLA
Sr.6-3283
 
 
Jones is a 3-4 end prospect who can move around to multiple spots on the Colts defensive line, strengthening one of Indy's remaining weak spots after its flurry of free-agent signings. A defensive tackle possibility is North Carolina's Sylvester Williams.
 
25
Manti Te'o
LB Notre Dame
Sr.6-1241
 
 
With a receiver locked up at No. 23 in Patterson, the Vikings will look defense with the pick they obtained from the Seahawks in the Harvin trade. Opinions are still wildly divided over whether Te'o will carry a first-round grade on draft night, but it only takes one team to believe in a player, and I think the Vikings are that team for the tarnished Notre Dame star.
 
26
Sylvester Williams
DT North Carolina
Sr.6-3313
 
 
While I still think a tight end (Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert) or a running back (Alabama's Eddie Lacy or Wisconsin's Montee Ball) make sense for the Packers' need list, I do admit it's not GM Ted Thompson's style to spend first-round currency on those positions. This could be an exception kind of year, but for now I'm giving Green Bay a quality defensive tackle prospect in Williams, who can help shore up the Packers' leaky run defense.
 
27
Keenan Allen
WR California
Jr.6-2206
 
 
Allen didn't run too well (in the 4.7s) at his Pro Day this week, but speed has never been his game. He has good hands and the ability to come down with the ball in traffic, and his recovery from a PCL knee re-injury is not yet complete. For what the Texans receiving game still lacks, Allen is the answer. With or without spiffy 40 times.
 
28
Bjoern Werner
DE Florida State
Jr.6-3266
 
 
Werner's stock has slid a bit as the scouting season has worn on, but he'd be a great value at the bottom of the first round for the Broncos, who are in the market for a pass rusher to help replace Elvis "Fax" Dumervil.
 
29
D.J. Hayden
CB Houston
Sr.5-11191
 
 
I'm moving off the pick of intriguing SMU 3-4 defensive end Margus Hunt for the Patriots in this slot, but I reserve the right to switch back in the next two weeks, so consider yourself duly warned. Hayden is an intriguing prospect in his own right, given that he nearly bled to death internally at a Cougars practice last fall. He's a great cover corner, and plays a physical, pressing style that the Patriots could surely use.
 
30
Tyler Eifert
TE Notre Dame
Sr.6-5250
 
 
The chance for the Falcons to corral the draft's finest tight end prospect as a replacement for Tony "One More Year" Gonzalez is simply the kind of fortuity and confluence of events that you just don't often experience in the draft. Even with more pressing needs at cornerback and right offensive tackle, Atlanta goes for the pass catcher.
 
31
Menelik Watson
OT Florida State
Jr.6-5310
 
 
Acquired from 49ers. Now picking near the bottom of the round, the Cowboys are still in position to upgrade their offensive line with Watson, a right tackle in college who is thought to possess left tackle skill level in the NFL. Other logical options for Dallas based on need would be Florida International safety Jonathan Cyprien or Ohio State defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins (Notice there are a ton of Jonathan variations in this year's draft? Cooper, Cyprien, Hankins, Banks, etc...)
 
32
Kevin Minter
LB LSU
Jr.5-11246
 
 
If the Ravens don't choose to replace one of the inside linebackers they lost (Dannell Ellerbe and Ray Lewis) with LSU's Minter, they could address their need at receiver (Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins?) or put this pick up for auction to a team eager to get back in the first round and select a quarterback such as E.J. Manuel, Ryan Nassib or Matt Barkley.
 
MORE NFL DRAFT
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