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7/17/2007 10:35:00 AM

AL Central: 'Joel Zumala'

By Joe Lemire

I am at odds with President Bush.

On a number of issues, frankly, but none more pertinent to an AL Central blog than this: the President predicts the Tigers to win the division.

Part of Bush's reasoning, you see, is that the Tigers have great young pitching and will benefit from the impending return of the "flamethrower Zumala" -- that's Joel Zumaya, if you're scoring at home. He should be back in mid-August after having finger surgery, and the same goes for Fernando Rodney, who joined Zumaya to form a dynamic seventh and eighth inning relief corps in front of Todd Jones last season.

As I wrote last week, my divisional pick is Cleveland, in large part because I think they have a sturdier bullpen. The return of Rodney and Zumaya will be significant for the Tigers, though neither has approached his success from last season. And a lot of that success was predicated on durability a year ago. Zumaya had a 1.94 ERA in 83.1 innings in 2006; he sports a 3.63 ERA through his first 17.1 innings this season. Rodney is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA in 28.1 innings so far; he was 7-4 and 3.52 in 71.2 innings last year.

What may ultimately tip the balance in the Tigers' favor, however, is the ability to buy relief at a price far greater than a pack of Rolaids.

Let me channel Speed for a moment ... Pop quiz, hotshot: Who has the lowest payroll in the AL Central?

According to these figures presented by the USA Today, the answer is not Kansas City. It's the Indians, who at $61.7 million have the 23rd highest (and, conversely, 8th lowest) payroll in the majors. The Royals are one slot ahead of them, spending $67.1 million in salaries.

Detroit, meanwhile, clocks in at $95.2 million, second to Chicago's largely unproductive $108.7 million in the AL Central rankings. That type of payroll offers the Tigers a flexibility the Indians don't have as we enter the final fortnight before the July 31 trading deadline.

As the Detroit Free-Press reports, the Tigers have their eyes on a top reliever to bolster the 'pen, possibly targeting someone as high-profile as Eric Gagne of the Rangers or Brad Lidge of the Astros. The Indians, meanwhile, are relegated to inquiring about a lower-tier option like Texas's Akinori Otsuka, but he's had tightness in his right forearm and probably won't be dealt.

While the Tigers can afford to add a more proven and, thus, higher-priced arm, the Indians will need to find help from within. Namely, the answer may well be Jensen Lewis, who made his major-league debut last night. He allowed no hits in a scoreless 1.1 innings, though he did walk three batters. His promise comes from his track record in Double and Triple A since May 1: a 0.68 ERA in 40 innings, with a .177 batting average against.

It's development from within, trading primarily for prospects and locking up future stars early that has worked well for Indians general manager Mark Shapiro. Just as he extended Grady Sizemore with a seven-year, $31.5 million contract (including a club option year) before his star centerfielder was even arbitration-eligible, Shapiro made a smart move in giving Travis Hafner a four-year, $57 million deal last week. The contract gives Hafner a hefty mid-season raise and foregoes next year's club option at a discount price, but it's good faith negotiating from Shapiro to keep his star happy and -- more importantly -- keep his star in Cleveland. Similarly, it was also shrewd to tie up manager Eric Wedge, popular among the players, earlier this week.

Clearly, the Tigers don't approach the free-spending ways of a New York or Boston. Still, they were able to trade for a veteran like Sean Casey at last year's deadline, they dealt young pitching for Gary Sheffield in the offseason and they can afford to acquire a Gagne or Lidge this summer -- those are moves the Indians can't (or won't) make. And for proof that Cleveland's more frugal strategy can work, just look under Twins, Minnesota for divisional results.



  • Beacon Journal columnist Terry Pluto answers the voices in his head – asking him about Wedge's extension.


  • Will Kenny Lofton return to Cleveland for a third time?


  • One of the best athlete blogs going belongs to Twins reliever Pat Neshek. From the site he talks about his life in baseball and discusses baseball memorabilia. He also used the blog as a forum to manage his campaign for the Final Man vote to the All-Star Game (he was bested by Hideki Okajima), encouraging fans to undertake an all-day vote-a-thon, endorsing a split ticket with the Padres' Chris Young (who won the vote) and admitting that he was a supporter of the Vote For Rory (Fitzpatrick) campaign for the NHL All-Star game. The wrote about the growing trend of athlete blogs.


  • The Pioneer Press had a Q&A with Twins great Bert Blyleven.


  • Joe Posnanski of the K.C. Star wrote a great column about how the radar gun has changed baseball.


  • If anyone was listening to WNCX -- 98.5 on your FM dial in Cleveland -- during the morning show yesterday, I was on for a chat about Indians baseball during the 8 o'clock hour. It was a fun interview and hopefully I'll make a few more appearances as the season progresses.


  • A major NY-Penn League update: Guillermo Moscoso of the Class A Oneonta Tigers threw a perfect game on Sunday against the Batavia Muckdogs. (Here's the coverage from the Daily Star in Oneonta). I had the chance to watch Moscoso pitch with the O-Tigers two years ago -- which doesn't speak well of his career trajectory -- but this will undoubtedly give him a boost. Also, what in the world is a Muckdog?

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    Comments:

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    Posted: July 17, 2007 2:37 PM   by Rob Deer
    Todd Jones may be the worst top-tier club closer in the game right now, but once Zoom and Rodney get back it won't matter. They'll supply the kind of shut-down mystique that has been so missing. Jones could be throwing under-hand lobs when they get back and it won't matter. The Tigers will have the label of "best team in baseball" locked up when they return.
    Posted: July 18, 2007 12:44 PM   by Anonymous
    as a twins fan, i take heart that president bush thinks the tigers are the team to beat in the central. he's never been right before. no reason to think he'll start now.
    Posted: July 18, 2007 1:21 PM   by Anonymous
    joel zumala....
    reminds me of when pres. reagan called royals clubhouse after they won world series and referred to jim quisenberry
    Posted: July 18, 2007 2:17 PM   by markeymarc
    Just because the Twins/A's strategy can work does not mean it will. The fact that the Tigers can trade for a Sheffield or Casey only shows the strength of their farm system which has players other teams will take for proven talent.

    Cleveland does seem to have a mystique about them this year with all the late inning wins like the Tigers did last year, so I don't expect them to go away.

    I hope for a good race down the stretch with the Tigers and Indians meeting in the ALCS. I think this would be some excellent baseball and further heat up the Detroit/Cleveland rivalry that already started with the Pistons/Cavs and of course Michigan/Ohio State.

    Go Tigers.
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