On paper the team has always been good, even the past few years. The difference this year is that we're actually producing up to our potential. If Bavasi can get his act together (and not overpay) and pick up a starter, we should be in good shape for the playoffs. Go M's!

I was able to read along with your largely masturbatory diatribe until you got to Ichiro being overrated. Mother of God! If you've come up with some dreadful manner of judging players which doesn't include him in your top five you are just picking the fly shit out of the pepper. And being uncommonly stupid besides.
The Irish Troubles

Mariner's winning way this year is "luck"? One game behind the Angels at this point in the season? Sweeping series from top teams like the Padres and Red Sox? ...so if they won their division it would be luck, right? Or winning the WS? It would be luck, yes? And all this time I thought it was scoring more runs than the other team that explained a team's position in the standings. Thanks for the insight.

I wouldn't say this blog is 'stupid' per se. Obviously there is some kind of confusion though.. and it wouldnt be going nearly far enough to say there seems to be alot of confusion on the writer's part here. I think its realistic to say that he does what every other writer does, rides the bandwagon, and focuses intently on stats. Obviously this article is proof that any dumbass can work for Sports Illustrated, but let it be a testament to those who think they have something to say.. you probably don't unless your willing to actually watch the team in question. The mariners, coming from an unbias opinion, are obviously a very talented team. No, they didnt make the playoffs last year. No, they aren't from the east coast or within close proximity to california.. but the numbers speak for themself fortunatly for every dumbass writer at SI this time. I'm not trying to be derogatory either. To the writer: I'm sure you are a great family man, and a really good person.. but you shouldn't have the right to writer articles. This article proves that you had nothing to say aside from your opinion.

Wow, that was really insightful. You must be a super genious. Ask for a raise.

You got the Braves, Brewers, and Indians right? By predicting they would not keep up that pace and finish with 102, 104, and 110 wins, respectively? Good call...

I was going to make an insulting comment for saying Ichiro is overrated before I realized you're a fantasy writer. The talents and value of Ichiro is therefore lost on you. Oh how valuable would he be with a .265 average and 35 home runs annually, right?

Are you actually bragging about an old article in which you said you would take Adam Dunn over Ichiro?

For a guy who researches so many numbers, I would think you would bother to look at win shares and what not. Oh and how dominating one is at their respective positions/roles.

Enjoy Adam Dunn's 40 solo HRs a year. While his managers can't even find a batting slot for him in which he'll actually be useful to the team. Can't have too many men on base when he comes up, then he won't homer after all.

And that doesn't even mention the fact that his defense resembles a big log rolling to the ball.

I tried clicking the link to find out why Ichiro is so "overrated", but an error message came up. It's just as well, as it probably saves me a headache.

Remember when you said that Chipper could not maintain his pace? Or that Hudson was a lock for the DL?

Right.

First, I disagree that Ichiro is overrated.

Second, the Mariners have been lucky. Modern analysis has shown that pitchers don't have much control over what happens to balls put in play (apologies for the lack of a reference, just Google
"BABIP"). Anytime time a team has a higher-than-average BA on balls put in play (yes, people keep track of this), it is due to *luck* (especially considering Seattle's below-average team fielding percentage as of this post).

Similarly, as of this post, Seattle has over-performed their projected pythagorean win total by five games. Many of the division leaders have overperformed as well (including LAA, by 2 games), but only Arizona, with an amazing 10 game advantage over their expected record, is enjoying a better deviation from the norm than Seattle. Unless Seattle's players somehow know early on when they are going to loose a game and stop trying (inexcusable in almost any circumstance), there is no way to explain why their average margin of victory is greater than their average margin of defeat... other than luck, that is.

david, your most recent comment doesn't make sense in two regards.

First of all, you talk about how the Mariners are lucky with a high BABIP, with the parenthetical remark about their poor fielding. But poor fielding doesn't influence their hitting. It would influence their opponent's hitting, however.

You also mention Pythagorean run totals. But if the Mariners are outperforming their Pythagorean run totals, this suggests that the Mariners are winning by small margins and losing by large margins, not the reverse as you put.

I think there are a number of explanations for this:

(1) The Mariners are a team that's succeeding largely because of "hot hitting". When hot hitting cools down, you're going to lose a number of games (see their multiple losing streaks of 5 or more games).

(2) The Mariners have average -- at best -- starting pitching. Accordingly, these pitchers aren't going to be shutting down opposing offenses.

(3) The Mariners do have a well-performing bullpen this year. Accordingly, when the games are close late, more of these games are going to fall in favor of the Mariners.

(4) Also, the Mariners lead the majors in "clutch hitting" (forget exactly how it was defined, but it was something along the lines of BA in the 7th inning or later when up by 1, tied, or with the tying run at the plate/on deck?) by a large margin. This also suggests that close games late are going to favor the Mariners.

So when they lose, their starters are going to give up some runs, and the M's probably aren't going to score many. When they win, their starters are still giving up some runs, but the M's are outscoring their opposition by a few runs.

Which should grossly skew the Pythagorrean records, if you ask me.

Ack, my bad. You are correct. I suppose its a bit of a moot point now, though, with the M's recent struggles.

David