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9/04/2007 09:15:00 AM

AL Central: All Hail The Tribe

By Joe Lemire

May I introduce to you the 2007 American League Central division champion Cleveland Indians?

While others always preface the following comment with "I hate to say ...," I'm not going to follow suit. I love to say "I told you so."

Just so we're all clear: Yes, I am aware that there are 25 games left in the season and, no, the Tigers are not going to catch the Indians. The magic number is 20, and it's a mere formality at this point.

Why am I so confident? Because my name's not Mark Shapiro or Eric Wedge or any of the players. It's easier for an armchair blogger to make bold predictions. That said, we are undoubtedly dealing with a team of some destiny when Cleveland beats Johan Santana for the fifth this year. Wait, that bears repeating in its own paragraph:

THE INDIANS ARE 5-0 AGAINST JOHAN SANTANA.

Sorry, I'll stop shouting now. But that's an historically bad record for one season, especially for a two-time Cy Young winner. Sure, Santana is "only" 14-11 this year but his ERA is still 3.15. He's made six starts against the Tribe, receiving a no decision once, and actually had decent numbers: Cleveland is batting .242 with a .288 on-base percentage. Those are neither dominant nor terrible numbers. That's why Ryan Garko, who did homer Monday, remains quick to point out that he'd still rather avoid Santana whenever possible:

"It's never a fun at-bat," Garko said to MLB.com. "We see the schedule coming up and roll our eyes like, 'Here he comes again.' But I think we're starting to pick up his changeup a little bit better. We're not swinging at his changeup in the dirt."

Sixteen games ago, Detroit and Cleveland were tied atop the standings. The Tigers, however, have gone 6-10 in that stretch while Cleveland has posted a 12-4 mark, including an eight-game winning streak, to build the current 6-game divisional lead. Cleveland has certainly not enjoyed exceptional pitching over the past two weeks. Over the course of the win streak, the Indians allowed at least three runs in every win, save one. But only twice did they not score at least six runs, winning those two games 4-3 and 5-3.

The offense -- which was spectacular in the first half, scoring the second-most runs in the AL -- has been merely consistent in the second half. The run-scoring pace has trailed off, as Cleveland is now just fifth in the league. What's remarkable is how much the Tribe have done with Travis Hafner playing below his standards. I still think he'll be worth every penny of the large contract extension he received this season; after all, he does still get on base, drawing 86 walks so far, and his presence still affects the rest of the lineup. An off-year or not, he's still The Pronk.

Around him, Grady Sizemore continues to develop into a star, but his numbers (.277/.386/.470 with 23 HR and 70 RBI) aren't quite there yet. The real boon for the Indians has been the steady bat of the underappreciated Victor Martinez (.303/.373/.506, 21 HR, 97 RBI), a solid bounce-back year from Jhonny Peralta (.271/.335/.427, 18 HR, 65 RBI) and better-than-expected years from Casey Blake and Garko, with other spot contributions from a host of other players (really? Asdrubal Cabrera? Really?). Just not so much from Trot Nixon these days, says Terry Pluto, who in his first week back as a columnist at the Cleveland Plain-Dealer wonders why Nixon ever starts these days.

And the pitching is more than good enough. The Tribe have a bonafide ace in C.C. Sabathia, a revelation of a No. 2 starter in Fausto Carmona and a pair of veterans, Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook, who are more than capable. Byrd's been solid all season, peaking with a 7-1 record in his last eight decisions. Westbrook -- a pitiful 1-6 with a 6.20 ERA as of July 23 -- is somewhat miraculously 4-2 in last six decisions, lowering his ERA by 1.42 during that span. (Is it a coincidence that Westbrook started surging about the time he became commissioner of an RBI Baseball tournament? Um, yes.)

And Cliff Lee? Well, he's still pretty terrible. In his first relief outing, he yielded two hits, a walk and a run in one inning.

But the Indians aren't really going to rely on Lee in the bullpen. Who needs him when you have Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez? My primary reason for picking the Indians to win the division at the All-Star break was their superior -- or at least healthier -- bullpen. As long as those two keep churning out scoreless appearance after scoreless appearance, and Joe Borowski doesn't get any worse (it'd be hard to do), Cleveland should be fine.

Incidentally, I really enjoyed this note on JoBo (scroll down halfway), about he could become the first pitcher to record 45 saves with a 5-plus ERA. It's always an adventure, but games still seem to be getting saved.

Have I made a hasty proclamation to crown the Indians? Of course I have. But it's not a wrong one.



  • If the Tigers want to make a run at the wild card, their starting pitching will be essential, and Kenny Rogers is due back this week.


  • According to Baseball Prospectus, if the remainder of the season were played a million times, the Royals would win the Central in three of them!


  • Nearly forgotten a day later because Boston's Clay Buchholz completed his no-hitter, Minnesota's Scott Baker flirted with perfection Friday night -- showing how much he's matured as a pitcher.


  • 'Tis the season for September callups: The Royals are calling up former No. 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar.

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