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Talk hoops all year long in Luke Winn's blog, a journal of commentary, news and reader-driven discussions about the college game.2/05/2007 03:33:00 PM Durant Versus The Wall
The Kevin Durant Show, which has produced at least 30 points in six of eight Big 12 games, rolls into College Station tonight for a tasty duel. The nation's best individual offensive player will square off against Texas A&M's top-five defense -- which is sure to give Lil' Kev the most physical challenge he'll face in the Big 12. (Kansas' defense is statistically more efficient than A&M's, but we can't really call the Jayhawks superior to the Aggies at this point.)
Freshman forward Kevin Durant is averaging 33.1 points in Big 12 play for Texas.John Biever/SI
Late Saturday night after winning in Lawrence, A&M's Mr. Clutch, Acie Law, was already talking about his team's next test. "You've got Mr. Superstar, Mr. Do-It-All Kevin Durant coming in," Law said. "I really enjoy watching him play, to tell you the truth."
No doubt the Aggies will also enjoy harassing Durant into what they hope will be his lowest point total of the Big 12 season. The current low is 26 against Nebraska on Jan. 24. While it's still unclear which A&M player -- either Dominique Kirk, Antanas "A.K." Kavaliauskas, or Marlon Pompey -- will guard Durant, there is a good chance he won't break 30. And I think there's a good chance Texas won't win, either ... but Vegas has already established that.
I did a far-too-elaborate analysis today to attempt to predict how Durant would fare against A&M. First I took his point totals in Big 12 play and, thanks to the possession data on midmajority.com, came up with a "DPPTP" (or, Durant Points Per Texas Possession) score for each game. The DPPTP score was then divided by the opponent's overall defensive efficiency (or Defensive Points Per Possession, from kenpom.com), to get a final "DRatio" (Durant Ratio) that factored in his efficiency versus the relative strengths of the defenses he's faced.Date Opponent Pts Poss. DPPTP OppDE DRatio
1/6 Colorado 37 79.4 .466 1.020 .457
1/10 Missouri 34 69.0 .493 .923 .534
1/13 Oklahoma 28 66.0 .424 .835 .508
1/16 Okla. St. 37 98.8 .374 .932 .401
1/24 Nebraska 26 62.2 .418 .965 .433
1/27 Baylor 34 69.7 .488 1.031 .473
1/31 Tex. Tech 37 65.8 .562 .953 .590
2/3 Kansas St. 32 60.5 .529 .889 .595
PROJECTED
2/5 Texas A&M 28 67.0 .413 .827 .499
By plugging the average DRatio for the eight Big 12 games (.499) into a formula with Texas A&M's defensive efficiency (.827) and the projected number of possessions for a Texas-Texas A&M game (67.0), Durant's projected point total for Monday night is 27.7. I'll round it up to 28, and make it my official pick.
Readers: To what point total will the Aggies hold "Mr. Superstar, Mr. Do-It-All Kevin Durant"? Leave your picks (as well as your NAMES) in the comments before tip-off. There will be a prize for the winner, and additional nods to anyone who can come up with a more absurd Durant-prediction formula than mine.Labels: Kevin Durant, Texas, Texas AM
posted by Luke Winn | View comments (60) |
60 Comments:
I predict he will have 20 points, and 20 boards, and TExas will still lose by 12.I wouldn't be surprised if the Aggies held him below 20. Anywhere but college station, I would say that he lights it up for 30+. In college station, where "just foul him" passes for a legitimate defensive strategy, my guess is he will have difficulty putting up big numbers and might even get knocked out of the game.Folks, remember to leave your names (first name and hometown, at least) ... otherwise there's no way to track your pick.Durant will have 23 points, but the Aggies will hold abrams & augastin down, en route to a 15 point win.KD is gonna get held to 12. Sedated.He'll score the number on his jersey: 35. - AlHe is goin gto be held to 17 points by A&M's D. He has never faced a defense this strong and will be flabergasted by them, yes I said flabergasted.Durant will have 34 points, 17 rebounds, and 5 blocks. I think the game will be close though, as I think both teams may get into foul trouble. Also, I think A&M will have to score more than 70 points to win. But as in March Madness, it often comes down to guard play and Law is the the best one on the floor. A&M 77 - Texas 71.
-Ryan R. from College Station.KD will have 27 and 13. Texas wins by 5!He will score over thirty. The aggie overall defense is extremely good, but I dont think that they match up very well individually. But the aggies will win by 1524 pts and the Aggies will get in foul trouble to keep it that low.
Aggies 67, TU 60
Gig 'Em!
- Jason from AustinKevin Durant is a special player who comes up big when he needs to. A&M's defense is solid and I can't take away from that, but I still think Durant will drop 34 and manage to bring down 13 rebounds. Those are my exact predictions.Jeff - Dallas
He gets 13 Points
TAMU 74
t.u. 57The Pixie Stick-thin phenom goes for 26 and 13 in College Station tonight, but the horns are still hooked, too much A.L. IV
Sam, Louisville, KYDurant scores 21, and Aggies win 72-61.I expect him to have 18 points. The Aggies will focus a lot of energy on him and he will score more FT than FG.
The Aggies will win a tight one.I'll go against all the Texas haters. Durant gets 15 boards and 32 points, including the buzzer-beater 3 for the win. 71-70.Durant plays his best on the road with opposing teams fans trying to rattle him. Look at the OSU and Tech games where he put up 37 both times. Nobody's fans are more obnoxious than A&M's, so I see him getting 40, a new career high to go along with 16 rebounds.
Texas wins in a classic, 76-74.
Adrian(Austin)Sorry TU...Durant will have 30 but TU will LOSE in COLLEGE STATION!!!
A&M 67
TU 62Under 20. 69BQdurant scores 18... texas wont score more than 60 on the night.
72-60. ags win by 12 and its only that close because its a rivalry game.25 pts 13 boards. Ags win by 7.
Paul Y. Cypress, TexasDurant will start off hot (say 14 points 5 boards in the first 10 minutes) - then the defense of A&M will frustrate him to the point where he will receive at least one technical foul (i say this because he is likely hearing in austin how important this game is to the tu faithful and how they simply cannot lose to A&M and he, being a freshman, will succumb to this type of emotion). So, i predict (if he isn't otherwise dq'd )he will end the game with no more than 20 points. I do think both teams will be in foul trouble early. BTW, i predict an Aggie victory 72-65. WTAW!!Andrew- Greensboro, NC
I think Durant will put up 22 pts. and 8 boards but A.J.Abrams will be the leading scorer for this one.
Texas- 78
Texas A&M- 75durant scores under 20 and the t-sips don't break 60 for the night. A&M wins! Whoop!
BostonAggieI predict he will have 13 points.In Big 12 play, A&M is holding leading scorers to 37% of their average. Being of simple mind, I say Durant scores 21 and A&M wins by 5. Don't forget this will be game 3 in 6 days with a late night turn around from Lawrence.
Jason in Dallas22 points, 11 boards. The atmosphere at CS is just gonna be too much- he'll be tight tonight, but get to the line enough to get to 22. Plenty of misses by his teamates for 11 boards though. A&M wins by 14.I expect Durant to get about 30 & 15, but I think that the Aggies will win a close game.
Sean - Lawrence, KSI think Durant will get 30 & 15 (many of those points from the line) but the Aggies will win a close game in College Station.
Sean - Lawrence, KSDurant will only score 11 and the Aggies will dominate
Clay, College StationHe'll score 28, but the Ag's still win.
Mike R.
Cypress, TXTexas A&M hasn't been ranked lower than 13 all year, yet I still haven't seen them in Luke Winn's Power Rankings all year. I know you say that a team has to prove that they belong, but seriously, they've been hovering around #8 all season. That being said, Durant is held to 18, A&M wins by 15, and Winn is left wiping egg off his face.
Brent, Dallas32 points, 17 boards, 3 blocks, Texas wins by 5. It will be a close game and Texas' final 4 points will come off free-throws. Aggieland hasn't seen this kind of punisher since Westbrook lit up McElroy in '95. hook'em
-Arnold in Austin.Durant cracks under the media pressure and the Aggie D...8 points.Durant is special, but he's not seen anything like A&M's defense which will be geared to deny him the ball. He'll get 25 but Texas won't get 60. A&M wins 68-59.Wow you aggie fans are ridiculous. The name is UT...Durant goes for 35 and 15...'horns win 75-74.Durant will glide, dunk and pour down 34 pts and 17 boards... even with the hick aggie fans pestering him all night. Poor Ags. Hook Em!Durant is going to get 31.
I like in your story how you said you did some crack. That would explain the lack of Aggies in the power poll.Durant will finish w/ 33 points, 11 boards and 3 blocks. I still think A&M will win though. K-State is the most physical team that he's played yet and he still put up 32 pts. This guy is an animal.Based on performances against Villanova, LSU, Michigan State, and Texas Tech (poor ags, still can't beat Tech... at anything), Durant will score 33 points and pull down 14 boards. Texas wins by 3 in overtime.Durant will get 23 points & 14 boards and the Aggies pull out an aggressive, well played victory in a close Lonestar Showdown by 8 pts.He will score 16 points, 18 rebounds, final score-- A&M 64, Texas 60.He will go for 30 and 12........at the end of the day, A&M is still A&Mmy prediction- texas will cry.The game is a rivialry.So that blowout it will not be. Durant will be Durant. over 30pt. over 20 rebound. Texas chances depends on what they will get from everyone else. Like to see Abrams step up. He has been missing the last couple of games.Durant has 25 and 12...Texas beats a tired A&M team 76 - 67durant does his best gerry mcnamara impression and the ags come storming into the power poll top 5 this week.Durant will take OT to win the game and get another 30-20 to his resume.
33 points
21 boards
Texas 74 - A&M 72
Damon in NashvilleI'm gonna cut off the voting now, since we have about every conceivable number on the board. Thanks to all who submitted comments. Everyone but the crack guy, that is.NICE PREDICTIONI was so focussed on choosing a point total different from the ones mentioned in the comments section that I forgot you had also chosen 28. Do I still win?
Gig'em Ags
Mike R.
Cypress, TXhe did have 28, as im sure 100 people will post and tell you
im a ken pom fan myself, i just don't understand his fascination with southern illinoisWay to go, Luke, with the formula coming up with the exact 28 points Durant made! You should be able to make some money with that.
So now are you ready to acknowledge the Aggies truly belong in the top 10, dare I say top 5? Winning by an 18 pt. margin against Texas is pretty phenomenal, especially when it's only 2 days after taking down Kansas.
Gig'Em Ags! and keep the true Aggie spirit alive. Remember to treat even the online community with the class that Acie showed at Kansas. There are a lot more folks watching us now.
Aggie in ChattanoogaRight on the head! 28!VERY nice call on Durant's eventual score tonight, Luke. Looks like you "Winn"...
That being said, if you don't put the Aggies in your top 6 in your next Power Rankings - then I'll have to starting calling you Luke "Looz" (as in "not Winn"). I mean, their only real bad game this year was at LSU - they could have won against UCLA in Anaheim - and Texas Tech's phenomenal 3-pt shooting - better than 50% - coupled with the Aggie's uncharacteristic misses at the foul line resulted in their only other loss - at a tough place to play. I'll take the Aggies on a neutral court against any team in your top 5!!!
Patrick in Albuquerque - TAMU Class of 1984 - Whoop!!!Thanks for playin', everybody. I appreciate the congrats. Never doubt the power of a strange formula.
And Mike, our rules committee has to weigh in on that. Although I'm leaning towards no right now. Readers, any thoughts? Should we give him a prize?
And as for the Ags, they're very in at this point. Rankings will come out Friday this week due to a small schedule change, but A&M will be there ...I just want to give you mad props for NAILING it with what I will simply refer to as, "The Durant-Winn Equation."
But what was even better was that game!!!! WHOOP!!!! I was upset not to see the defense I am used to (refs called it close), but it sure was fun to watch the scoring that ensued!!!!Join In!Post your thoughts in our (moderated) blog comments section, or send e-mail to Luke Winn by clicking here.The Style Archive
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