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SI.com college football writer Stewart Mandel shares his commentary, analysis and random tidbits on the latest developments around the country.
Vegas Still High on Wolverines
Indeed, the Wolverines’ performance against a I-AA foe’s athletic, spread offense wouldn’t seem to bode well as they prepare to face an actual Pac-10 team with an athletic, spread offense. But at least one set of people hasn’t lost confidence in Lloyd Carr’s team: Professional gamblers. Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the oddsmakers who help set the initial betting lines on sporting events for major casinos, installed Michigan as a six-point favorite Monday. Seemed reasonable to me. When I spoke Tuesday with Mike Seba, LSVC’s senior oddsmaker, he admitted it was “a tough line to make. Just like any other team, we evaluate their performance [the previous week] and adjust their power rating. The question is, how much do you adjust [Michigan’s] rating based on that game?” Seba’s preseason “power rating” for the Wolverines was 67 (average is about 50). He ultimately decided to move them down seven points to 60. “That’s a huge adjustment,” he said. “Usually, you adjust these teams a point, point-and-a-half at most. It’s not like [the Wolverines] are a terrible team, although they obviously have some defensive problems. But adjustments need to be made.” LSVC’s point-spreads are literally the difference between the two teams’ power ratings. So if Michigan had beaten the Mountaineers as expected, the spread for the Oregon game would have likely been a full touchdown higher. (The Ducks played about as Seba expected in their 48-27 win over defending C-USA champ Houston.) He said a similarly large adjustment was made to this week’s Notre Dame-Penn State game (the Nittany Lions are currently about a 16-point favorite) following the Irish’s 33-3 opening loss to Georgia Tech. But here’s the part that threw me for a loop. You would think the general public would be down on Michigan right now and that bettors would be all over the Ducks. So far, it’s been the exact opposite. In the 24 hours or so since LSVC sent out its six-point line, the Vegas casinos (which aren’t necessarily obligated to copy LSVC’s number) have set their spreads as high as nine-and-a-half points in the Wolverines’ favor. In other words: The early bettors consider Michigan a mortal lock to win by six or seven. “Most of the early money that is bet is the ‘sharp money’ from professional bettors. Your novices -- they’re going to bet later in the week,” said Seba. “The professionals realize Michigan was embarrassed, and a lot of them are playing the ‘Michigan will bounce back’ angle.” Who are we to question the professionals?
posted by Stewart Mandel | View comments |
Comments:I think the public crucifixion of Michigan is played out. Dropping them out of the polls was unprecedented and a media over-reaction, just "experts" getting swept up in the cause of the week (slam Michigan). And these same experts the week before ranked them at 5, so what credibility do they retain anyways? Michigan barely lost to the best I-aa team (two years and running), and Texas barely won against a team that wouldn't have beat App. State. And yet Texas is still such a good team? Make up your minds.
And this is from an OSU alum and diehard Buckeye. Vegas has it right. Michigan will only lose 1 more game this year at most. I think they have a good shot at winning the big 10 + Rose Bowl. They just didn't show up to play on saturday.
Speed kills, and UM doesnt have it on D. They may just lose one more (I doubt it) but whoever they play in the RoseBowl, especially if its USC, is going to make them look silly.
Matthew is right on. Michigan isn't being punished in the polls for playing badly, they are being punished because they exposed all those in the media that overrated them in the first place.
These are the same people telling us that the winner of an overrated Va tech (Ap State would've easily beaten them by more than 3) playing an overrated LSU (the Tigers might've beaten Ap State but Ap State would have been able to beat MSU without needing the 6 turn overs) will have the inside track to the BCS championship. Kurt, are you serious? LSU won 45-0. How can you say they "needed" 6 turnovers to win? Maybe, just maybe, the defense is not overrated at all. Besides, a good team finds ways to win when they are not playing well. A bad one finds excuses.
Michigan has been overrated for years. They are living off past glory. They had holes in the defense last year that Ap State was able to find on film and exploit. The question is why the voters could not see the same thing. Todd, you're right. I should've said that they needed those turnovers to beat MSU as badly as the final score seemed to indicate. And you're damn right about wondering why the voters gave Michigan such a free pass in the pre-season.
But don't forget those same voters seem to think that LSU's defense was incredible in the MSU game, but the actual game belies that myth. You must have noticed that LSU could hardly drive the ball (except on a short field) on a D that's even worse than Michigan's. Those interceptions weren't truly forced, they didn't come from sweet moves by the DB's. They came from horrible, horrible throws except for the one that was pretty clearly from pass interference in the endzone) from a QB who was only kept in b/c the back-up QB was actually that much worse. MSU stoped themselves. LSU had much more going for it on D last year (like Michigan). Anyway, my main point is that either Va Tech or LSU will get a big boost from winning, yet that win will come against an overrated team. However, all this will be moot b/c I think each of those teams will have at least two losses before bowl season. Todd, you're right. I should've said that they needed those turnovers to beat MSU as badly as the final score seemed to indicate. And you're damn right about wondering why the voters gave Michigan such a free pass in the pre-season.
But don't forget those same voters seem to think that LSU was incredible in the MSU game, but the actual game belies that myth. You must have noticed that LSU could hardly drive the ball (except on a short field) on a D that's even worse than Michigan's. Those interceptions weren't truly forced, they didn't come from sweet moves by the DB's. They came from horrible, horrible throws (except for the one that was pretty clearly from pass interference in the endzone) from a QB who was only kept in b/c the back-up QB was actually that much worse. MSU stoped themselves. LSU had much more going for it on D last year (like Michigan). um..yeah... read the second one
I think dropping Michigan out of the top 25 is not an overreaction by the media. That game should have never been close. Michigan didn't show up to play, period. Does that mean Michigan is an awful team? No. But they will have to prove it to gain a top 25 ranking b/c they should have blown out App State.
As for LSU and VT being overrated, I think that is a bit of a stretch too. Face it, ALL teams in the top 10 have a lot of hype and abundant media coverage. That's the world we live in today. Time will tell which team (if any, or both) is overrated. Both teams won - and you can debate their individual games - but they both won and to call them both overrated despite their victory in the first week of the season is jumping the gun. I would have a far easier time stomaching all of these glowing assessments of App State from our Michigan friends (and Big Ten friends) if they had been giving us these same assessments BEFORE the game. Now that Michigan has lost, it seems far more like damage-control actual praise.
Michigan is exactly where they should be after this game - unranked. If they beat their next few opponents then maybe they'll have earned a ranking again, but at this point they shouldn't be anywhere near the Top 25. Picture this: If Michigan and Notre Dame would have met last week and if Notre Dame would have won by 3, both teams would have been ranked in the top 10 this week.
sadly ddmeso has it right. Without strong competition both UM & ND would be ranked after a close game. Ignoring strength of schedule is why UF surprised so many against OSU. But we pretend it doesn't matter and rank BSU & Hawaii based on ... what? A non-BCS school can get up for one big game a season, such as TCU vs OK 2 years ago and Tx Tech last year, but they lose to weak opponents the following week. The only solution is what Boise St has done in avoiding elite teams like Georgia and the embarrassment they encountered two years ago. Congrats to Ap St, TCU & Boise St but no way these small schools could survive the successive games UF played last year against Alabama, Auburn, Georgia & LSU. It is also sad that Boise St & Hawaii have only themselves and Washington standing between them and an undefeated season. The loser of their game will still cry for a BCS bowl.
Charles, I agree with everything in your post, but mark my words: Washington will spank Boise St. this week. Their quarterback alone will put up 100+ rushing -- he's bigger than every BSU linebacker and faster too. UW may suprise some folks this year. Hell, they already suprised me when they thumped 'Cuse. 'Cuse is terrible, but that score and how they did it reminded me of when UW on your schedule meant a likely "L."
I think it's a bit ridiculous to assume that because App. State beat Michigan that they could beat VA Tech and MSU. App State was the better team on that particular day. Maybe 9 times out of 10, Michigan will win, but not on that day.
Remember last year, App State won the championship. Their first and only loss that year was against an awful NC State team. So Michigan, you can put your spin on it the best way you can. Go ahead and claim that App. State is the "best 1-AA football program." They're still a 1-AA program and you lost to them. Hey Knappic, before you castrate the U of M fans for not being able to forecast the outcome of the game (as if anyone else could do it either??????), consider that many of us have said for years that the Wolverines should fire Carr and get somebody who knows how to prepare a team and win the big games. Why do you think we have been screaming for Carr's head for last 6 or 7 years? I guess all you folks have just been ignoring us because you're too busy thinking about your own team's problems. If you doubt what I'm saying, then just ask Stewart Mandel. The guy's mailbag every year has been overflowing with Michigan fans complaining about Carr. Even Mandel joked one time that the only coach who had led Michigan to a national championship in the last 50 years was the same coach that everyone wanted replaced because he wasn't winning in the current year the way the fans wanted. You aren't going to get much more proof than that. Time to start paying attention!
In NCAA basketball it is not unusual for a small team that matches well against the weaknesses of a big team to sneak up on them and produce an upset. With the OSU and USC losses Michigan was an accident waiting to happen and could prove absolutely nothing against Ap St. I see nothing to suggest that there is more parity between big and small schools. The other elite BCS school that struggled was Texas. They also came off a disappointing season and had nothing to prove. Utah has shown that they can schedule good BCS competition despite cries from others to the contrary, and when a Utah does well consistently with this kind of schedule I will be more convinced. A few years ago CSU took on Colorado, USC & Minnesota and their coach Lubick said CSU was out of its league. That's my feeling.
This is just the tip of the iceberg. Prior to last Saturday's game, I thought Michigan was no better than an 8 and 4 team. They will will lose to Oregon, Ohio State and the Big Ten's top two teams, Penn State and Wisconsin. Now I am thinking that they will lose to Purdue and perhaps Illinois or Michigan State. This can only end bad for Big Blue. They were a middle of the pack Big Ten team entering the season and this loss confirms it. It was not a fluke. Michigan will be darn lucky if their bowl streak does not end this year.
App lost to NCState without their QB Edwards (who is undefeated at 15-0). They are a different team with Edwards at the helm. Extremely talented, and blazing speed. They could take out most of the Big 10 on any given day, and now people realize this. By the way App State has the longest home winning streak in the country at something like 27 games, and longest overall winning streak as well (15).
I don't agree with SOS about Oregon. Michigan was still feeling sorry for itself after last season. The only hope Oregon had was a big Michigan victory last week. If Michigan loses again then I agree with the rest of what SOS is predicting, but a Michigan win probably leads to at most two more defeats.
I have to agree with SOS on this one. Michigan's season may be over. I too thought that Michigan was in for a rough year. They remind of last year's Notre Dame squad, all offense, though Michigan's offense is nothing compared to Quinn and company, and no defense. Oregon is going to give UM fits. They have a mobile QB who is a more accomplished passer than his ASU counterpart. Oregon has a good outside running game to go with its dominant inside running game. Oregon is not all that strong defensively but unlike Michigan, does have some quality players in the secondary. Oregon wins more comfortably than the score will indicate while Michigan's free fall continues resulting in a 1 and 3 record for the month of December.
I just wanted to clarify my previous post. I disagree with SOS in that Michigan should make a bowl game as they should be able to finish above .500, not by much though.
1. Penn State 2. Wisconsin 3. Ohio State 4. Purdue 5. Michigan State 6. Michigan 7. Illinois 8. Iowa 9. Indiana 10. Northwestern 11. Minnesota Emotional midgets can occasionally overcome a lack of talent, but the other factor needed in the equation is the goliath not taking things seriously. Once in a while a 'thought to be giant' has a very poor season, but not often. Michigan was still sobbing about being left out of the title game when a midget kicked it in the chin. Oregon will find out shortly whether Michigan has any character and I just think they won't like the answer. This will be one of the most interesting games of the week. I am not a Michigan fan.
First off,
Michigan needed to get removed from the Top 25, Second Texas won...if Michigan Wins we arent having this debate. Third, No Texas isnt that good Texas & Michigan have slumped a bit but for different reasons. What is similar is the high expectations that neither met. Texas lacked the sharpness of a year ago and the tough schedule they played at the end of the season resulted in some close losses, much like Florida's tough schedule resulted in close victories over weaker teams. Michigan played no one but Notre Dame last year, was overrated, and was not ready for an elite team like USC. To count these schools out at this point as some are doing is absurd. I see no reason not to favor Texas to win the Big 12, although OK will be stronger, and I believe Michigan will get back on its feet against Oregon. But the Big Ten has no one to contend for the national title. I suspect most of you predicting doom for Michigan dislike Michigan and are hoping for the worst. It is hard to imagine that Michigan will not be on fire this weekend, just as Texas will be for OK. Texas looking ahead to OK is the only hope TCU has and for that reason alone I suspect the contest will be close.
How does a team historically ranked 65th in recruitment finish undefeated, as Boise St did? Answer: by rarely playing teams ranked higher in recruitment. Stew is hyping TCU in his weekly column. TCU has two good victories in the last two years and immediately followed them with bad losses. For TCU the Texas game is a chance for national respect, the big game of the year. For Texas the big games are Tech, OK and A&M. I doubt anyone on the Tx squad said 'Oh my God, TCU', when the schedule was revealed. So an Ap St that matches well with Michigan can catch Michigan still crying about the previous season and have a close contest. But a close loss to OSU, followed by a BCS snub, followed by a USC clobbering and the Ap St fiasco does not seem reason to turn Michigan into an 8-4 team. Perhaps others disagree.
Charles is a typical Longhorn fan. Of course he has a lot to brag about after those impressive games at the end of last year. Let's take them one by one. Scoring 42 points against K-State and losing (K-State was later blown out by Rutgers in a bowl game). Losing to Texas A&M who was later blown out by Cal in bowl Game. I guess the one thing he can brag about is that impressive 26-24 win over the NINTH place Big Ten finisher, that oh so mighty Iowa.
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The Book
Stewart Mandel's first book, Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls: Tackling the Chaos and Controversy that Reign Over College Football, is available now. Click here to order your discounted copy.
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