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SI.com college football writer Stewart Mandel shares his commentary, analysis and random tidbits on the latest developments around the country.
10/14/2007 07:53:00 PM

BCS: It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like '03

Matt Grothe
Matt Grothe and the Bulls debuted at No. 2 in the BCS Standings.
AP
Normally, the release of the season's first BCS standings officially establishes the first set of "favorites" to reach the national title game. The way this season has transpired so far, however, all Sunday's release probably did was help ensure that No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 South Florida will be the next titans to fall.

Normally, this is the time when we start crunching numbers and cursing computers, playing out all the possible nightmare scenarios that could emerge as this year's Florida State/Miami/Washington (2000) or USC/Oklahoma/Auburn (2004). Don't even bother this year. Not after six top-five teams and 11 top-10 teams have lost in the past three weeks alone.

With so much volatility already, it would be foolish to assume that the standings come Dec. 2 will remotely resemble those from Oct. 14. Heck, at the current place, there will probably be a radical makeover as soon as next Sunday.

Even after voting USF No. 1 myself, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if the Bulls' run ends as soon as Thursday night at Rutgers. And while there's no obvious equal to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten (which barely even entered a second team -- No. 25 Michigan -- in Sunday's standings), that doesn't mean Ohio State won't eventually suffer its own Oklahoma-Colorado or Cal-Oregon State moment.

Remember when a mediocre Michigan State team stunned the then-No. 1 Buckeyes in Columbus in the BCS' first season (1998)? Guess who comes to town Saturday? (And these Spartans are actually 5-2).

Not that I'm predicting a Michigan State upset. Personally, I'd like to avoid predicting much of anything from here on out because it's become an inherently futile endeavor -- but unfortunately, my bosses won't let me get away with it. Just this afternoon, I was charged with the task of projecting the five BCS bowl matchups for this week's Sports Illustrated. A dart board would have come in handy.

In doing so, I operated under the assumption that there will be no undefeated teams by the end of the regular season (besides perhaps Hawaii). Not only will USF and Ohio State lose at least once, but so, too, will BCS No. 3 Boston College (most likely more than once). No. 8 Arizona State (which hosts both Cal and USC) and No. 13 Kansas (which misses Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, at least until the Big 12 title game) have as good a chance of running the table as any of the higher-ranked undefeated teams, but my faith in them is no stronger than it is the others.

In other words, I'm guessing the two eventual titles participants will be the ones that A) Have already suffered a defeat and B) Are most poised to run the table from here. Who are those teams?

While no season in the BCS era has featured near as many stunning results as this one, I do remember one that played out somewhat similarly: 2003.

The first BCS standings that year came out Oct. 18. Much like this season, only the top three (Oklahoma, Miami and Virginia Tech) and a couple outliers (No. 10 Northern Illinois and No. 14 TCU) remained undefeated. And the two teams that would wind up splitting the national championship, USC and LSU, had already suffered losses and found themselves ranked seventh and 12th, respectively. The Trojans' loss had come Sept. 27 against Cal (in triple overtime), while the Tigers had fallen at home to 3-3 Florida on Oct. 11.

The two teams I pegged for Sports Illustrated fit nearly identical profiles. One is LSU, which, like that year's Tigers, suffered its first loss during the second week of October, and which, like that year's USC team, did so in triple overtime. In a field of flawed contenders, the Tigers are the one team that still inspires the most confidence. I see them catching fire and winning the rest of their regular-season games, starting this week against Auburn. Obviously, whichever East division foe they draw in the SEC title game will be a bear, but LSU ran into a similar scenario in '03, drawing an Atlanta rematch with a 10-2 Georgia team it had beaten in dramatic fashion in Baton Rouge. The Tigers won 34-13.

Meanwhile, my projected opponent for LSU is, like the Tigers themselves that year, a less obvious choice at this stage in the game: No. 10 Oregon. Just like 2003 USC, the Ducks' sole setback thus far came against Cal, also in dramatic fashion, also on the last weekend of September. Just like those Trojans, Oregon features an explosive offense led by a potential Heisman QB (Dennis Dixon) and future pro running back (Jonathan Stewart). Most importantly, its remaining schedule lines up favorably: Limping USC (Oct. 27), torrid but still-unproven ASU (Nov. 3) and resurgent rival Oregon State (Dec. 1) all have to come to Eugene.

As for whether those two will be obvious choices, or whether their selection will come at the expense of a jilted third team -- a la 2003 -- I can't even begin to predict. Maybe it will be an exact Sugar Bowl rematch: LSU-Oklahoma (though I'm pegging the Sooners to lose once more, either at Texas Tech or against sneaky-good Kansas in the Big 12 title game).

Don't bother sending me your doomsday scenarios just yet. If ever there was a season to "wait and see how things play out," this is most definitely it.
posted by Stewart Mandel | View comments |

Comments:

Posted: 8:39 PM   by Matthew
Stewart you're a hatin' punk on Ohio State, you're just mad you have missed the mark on them all season long, from your brilliant early season "If Michigan is a bad team, then by extension Ohio State must be as well." Way to go on that one, that Northwestern education is practically paying for itself.
Posted: 8:55 PM   by horsecoder
Let's just throw our hands up this year and not have a national champion because no one will be satisfied. Stew, good luck with the future polls, there are way too many variables.
Posted: 9:12 PM   by Ryan
BC is gonna run the table and finish the season by beating Oklahoma in the title game.
Posted: 9:32 PM   by Joe
Marvin Lewis Must go... Hire Rich Brooks.
Posted: 10:01 PM   by Bid8
I love it! We just need Mark Mays boyfriend Trev back, and we have all the OSU haters back, for a repeat of 2002!
Posted: 10:07 PM   by Dave
I'm a huge Buckeye fan, and I don't think we've really played anyone yet. I hope we can run the table, but I don't think that would indicate we are one of the two best teams in the country. Personally I was hoping to go undefeated this season and end up in the Rose Bowl. Maybe this will be the year that the BCS get screwed by multiple one loss teams and no clear choice for who should be there.
Posted: 10:08 PM   by Michael
Good one bid8...hahaha
Posted: 10:14 PM   by J.D.
I'm glad to see you picked the Bulls #1 in the nation. It doesn't surprise me that most folks picked Ohio State, but the way I see it is this: If the team with South Florida's resume were named Florida or Florida State, people would vote that team over an Ohio State team that hasn't played, well, _anybody_ yet.

It may wind out playing out different in weeks to come, but to me, the number one team in the nation right now is the Brahma Bulls.
Posted: 10:17 PM   by John D
I think that the idea of LSU making it back into the title game is probubly right on the mark, seeing how powerful they are as a whole and seeing as that, if you're going to lose, you might as well lose early, and in triple-overtime on the road to a good team. Other than that,a dart board would come in handy.....Oregon has a favorable scheduel, but whether OSU wins out or not, they certainly don't deserve to be in the title game. OSU is a great team, but almost every year OSU's most touted opponent is Michigan....and almost every year Michigan has embarressed the Big Ten in it's bowl game. I think that is a pretty straight-forward assessment, and OSU really hasn't proved it wrong. But who knows....they certainly aren't rebuilding as much as we thought they were.

Its a shame in such an awesome year of football the BCS and pre-season polls make everything so screwed up. Good luck with the future polls.
Posted: 10:40 PM   by Pman007g
Stewart, what does Michigan have to do to earn back some respect. After the horrible start they have bounced back with 5 straight wins, yet they are only 25th? USC has looked horrible for 3 straight weeks yet they are still a top 12 team. Tell me how this is not biased.
Posted: 10:48 PM   by bgault
As a staunch supporter of the bowl system, I may finally be getting on board the playoff train. Normally, I subscribe to the "karma will figure it out" method, but this season there is no pleasing anyone.

OSU fans feel disrespected that their team is looked down upon by fans of other teams, while every other major conference with a one loss team (read: SEC) thinks that their schedule is so tough that they actually deserve to be in the NC game despite the loss.

One thing we know is that the system is not perfect, but it seems that the more we try to fix it, the worse it's becoming. I almost like the old system of traditional bowls and argue til you're blue in the face. This notion of "ranking" conference strength and assigning NC implications from that ranking is laughable when ADs across the country make schedules years in advance.

In the absence of a true playoff, I agree with an earlier post of ranking the undefeateds, then the one losses, and so on...it may suck for a traditional powerhouse, but let's face it...is it really any worse than what we've got now?
Posted: 10:53 PM   by Jake
Stewart, i really wish you had watched Oklahoma's last two games, as they were both wins over ranked teams. In case you haven't noticed, it turns out that Colorado isn't as bad as everyone thought, and this Oklahoma team will only get better as the season goes along. in case you are worried about the defense, they have allowed points because they have played some of the best offenses in the country in Tulsa, Texas, and Missouri. Boomer Sooner!
Posted: 11:01 PM   by Brian
Way to go Stewart. I'm happy to see someone showing my Ducks some love. The Cal loss was a heartbreaker, but I think this team is much more mature (in large part to the improved maturity of it's leader Dixon), and fully capable of running the table from here.
Any chance a 2-loss team gets in to the title game? I know it may sound crazy, but if one of the 2-loss teams wins out from here, for example Auburn, and everyone else ahead of them looses another game, could they move up to 2nd?
Posted: 11:28 PM   by Netizen
NCAA Toughest Schedule (Cumulative) for Top 5 BCS Teams:
OSU 23
LSU 32
SFL 34
BC 51
OU 55

So, according to NCSS Toughest Schedule (Cumulative) calculations, Ohio State's schedule is the highest ranked of the Top 5 BCS teams despite being in the "weak" Big Ten.

Can we all now shut-up about it?
Posted: 11:35 PM   by Nathan
no, OSU has a cupcake schedule. the big ten is very weak this year . at least a lifeless computer and mathematics loves you.
Posted: 11:41 PM   by Mike
I like how you jumped South Florida from #6 to #1 while keeping Ohio State at #3 and LSU down ONLY to #2.

Way to be consistent. Just what I'd expect from a sports journalist unfortunately.
Posted: 11:45 PM   by Netizen
NCAA, that is :)
Posted: 11:51 PM   by David
Oh please! Ohio State is not the best team in the nation. OSU would lose to LSU, Florida, Oregon, Cal, Auburn and USC(southern Cal). I have to agree that it is probable that LSU will wind up in the title game I think that they will lose one more game. While I still have hopes that Pete Carroll can right the ship everyone has to admit that the problem USC has is playing up or down to the level of their opponents. If you look at their record against non pac-10 teams they step up their game. So here is to a Trojans vs whoever. USC should be able to run the table. Just watch and see!!
Posted: 11:51 PM   by David
Oh please! Ohio State is not the best team in the nation. OSU would lose to LSU, Florida, Oregon, Cal, Auburn and USC(southern Cal). I have to agree that it is probable that LSU will wind up in the title game I think that they will lose one more game. While I still have hopes that Pete Carroll can right the ship everyone has to admit that the problem USC has is playing up or down to the level of their opponents. If you look at their record against non pac-10 teams they step up their game. So here is to a Trojans vs whoever. USC should be able to run the table. Just watch and see!!
Posted: 11:51 PM   by SasQuatch
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Posted: 11:54 PM   by bgault
Nathan -

I suppose from your comment that you're an SEC fan. So if some "lifeless computer and mathematics" aren't enough objectivess, I guess you prefer the biasness of the polls? Or better yet, let's just call a mulligen anytime an SEC team loses; that way they all can end up undefeated and we can declare that the NC permanently resides with the whole conference.
Posted: 12:04 AM   by SasQuatch
This post has been removed by the author.
Posted: 12:13 AM   by SasQuatch
Stew: another good analysis (or reasons why you can't) and set of rankings. Pretty close to the computers in the BCS, although you did use some judgment.

To Larry: so far, you are among the 3 OSU (the ohio one) fans that I actually enjoy reading posts from. You are clearly a mind, thoughtful, and a person who wisely refrains from dissing and counsels those who do. I particularly agree with your post about servicemembers posting here from Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere and add my missive to "be safe over there" to them as I have online in many places elsewhere. Good posts, Larry, thank you for them.

To OSU fans: Congratulations on your ranking . . enjoy! I'd really like playoffs, but trust computers more than polls at this point. Right now, if we take polls out and just go by the computers, it is you against ASU in a bowl game (probably a BCS one) since you are tied with them at fifth, and USF and LSU in the title game since they are 1 and 2 respectively. So Stew is actually elevating you . . Stew you Big 10 homer!!! But, as many say . . . too early to be overconfident or sure of anything. I think you have a good team, but will reserve judgment until you play Michigan State, Penn State on the road, and even Michigan on the road. Unlike other LSU fans, I think that is a tough schedule for you right now.

I'd just like my Tigers to win a 3 OT game if needed and be somewhere significant in January . . . and I think they will, but we shall see.

Oh . . and to Netizen . . I thought the WA Huskies had the toughest schedule in the nation? Could be wrong . . oh, wait . . that was based on "preseason rankings" . . . . nevermind.

We need a rational playoff system!
Posted: 12:15 AM   by Charles
Give Stew a break. He admits to being unsure. Like last year I think OSU will win out, but I do not think OSU is one of the five best teams. Its opponent is more likely to be OK, LSU, or USC, but not Oregon. USF may squeak thru but again is not one of the five best. USF & OSU, wouldn't that be a crock?
Posted: 12:29 AM   by bgault
Sas is cool, and one of the few rational, intelligent SEC fans that I've seen. To the rest of the "every conference but the SEC sucks" fans out there...get a clue. You talk a good tank about beating down the Big Ten like the proverbial whipping boy...yet the Big Ten does NOT have a losing record against the SEC the last three years...how you like them apples?

Look - nobody has a clue this year (or most years for that matter) about who the "best team" really is. Geography dictates building teams in all different sorts of manners, and that difference creates matchup problems between some teams.

But ANY fan, be it a Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, or Big East fan who acts as a fortune teller - i.e. "I guarantee that (insert beloved team) would whip (insert team hated at the moment) doesn't have a clue. That's why they play the games boys. After all, Miami was celebrating "winning" before actually playing the game in 2002, and I think that the Buckeyes were equally as guilty in 2006.
Posted: 12:31 AM   by mikegoble
They get no respect-- ASU is the Rodney Dangerfield of this year's season, quietly and confidently amassing a 7-0 record in the most competitive conference going, sitting alone atop said conference while USC, Cal and Oregon have all stumbled.

ASU's pansy schedule is holding them back, I hear. They dispatched both Stanford and Oregon State quite handily-- the mighty Trojans and Bears weren't able to do that, but I hear majestic, top-tier adjectives to describe their short-comings in these two games.

ASU thumped Colorado way back in Week 2, after which I remember reading columns where the poor Buffaloes were the punchline. But after a win over OU in a nail-biter, suddenly they are the second coming of the Almighty.

ASU? Still 7-0. Check out their 2nd-half statistics, and favorable home-heavy schedule-- only Oregon doesn't come to Tempe (not even dignifying that other AZ school).

No respect... no respect at all.
Posted: 12:45 AM   by Geoff
I agree with you Mandel that LSU will end up back in the title game. LSU is the only team that I feel would be worthy of the number one spot. As for the other team, who knows? I kind of like the Oregon pick but I'm suspicious USC will win out and grab the other spot in the national title game. But this season is further proof that a playoff is needed to decide all of this on the field, not in the polls or by computers.
Posted: 1:02 AM   by Netizen
Yes, yes, Ohio State has played non-conference games against "nobodies," and this distinguishes them from the SEC how?

SEC non-conference games have included Florida vs. Troy, LSU vs. Tulane, Kentucky vs. Florida Atlantic, and South Carolina vs. LA-Lafayette.

I respect the SEC, but most of its fans posting here are irrational and dillusional.
Posted: 1:04 AM   by Trev
"
Posted: 11:28 PM by Netizen
NCAA Toughest Schedule (Cumulative) for Top 5 BCS Teams:
OSU 23
LSU 32
SFL 34
BC 51
OU 55""

Were did you find your numbers? According to the Sagarin poll this is how they match up:

strength of schedule rank:

LSU 12
USF 31
OU 67
OSU 73
BC 80

The computer rankings actually have USF and LSU above Ohio State in fact Ohio State is tied for 5th in the computer polls.

As for Ohio State playing someone lets do a quick run down of their schedule eh?

Youngstown State 5-2 (looks impressive until you realize they are I-AA team)

Akron 3-4 (just lost to that powerhouse known as Temple)

Washington 2-4

Northwestern 4-3 (managed to lose to that other powerhouse known as Duke)

Minnesota 1-6 (provided Northwestern with one of their wins )

Purdue 5-2

Kent State 3-4

So not counting Youngstown State Ohio's opponents have gone a combined 18-23. Yep those are some tough games. Everyone feel free not to take Netizen advice and talk about Ohio States line up of cup cakes as long as you want.
Posted: 1:21 AM   by Netizen
*Heavy Sigh* OK, Trev (Albert), pay attention now....

As I've already said, my numbers come from the NCAA, and are cumulative.

Click here

Cumulative takes into account the records of each opponent on the schedule, not just each opponent already played.

Each of OSU's remaining opponents today has a 5-2 record, and it is on that basis that its 12-game schedule is ranked the 23rd toughest.

Geez, I cited an authoritative source to avoid an argument, but I guess that was too much for you.
Posted: 1:22 AM   by LSUtigersFTW
Stew, you are right on the money. A one loss LSU team will sertainly make it to the National Title game. I think OSU, S. Florida, and BC all have a chance to run the table, but I just don't see all three of them doing it. Having said that, a one-loss LSU team who beats #9 VT, #12 S.Carolina, #9 Florida, #18 Auburn, and Alabama and Arkansas teams that will/have been ranked this season, plus a highly ranked voe in the SEC Title game (possibly UK...I really want to see that game, b/c revenge is a dish best served purple and gold!)...with wins against so many high caliber teams and a loss coming to a ranked team on the road in triple OT, I don't see how BC or OSU could beat us out for the National Champ game spot against an unbeaten S. Florida, assuming they all run the table. GEAUX TIGERS!
Posted: 1:26 AM   by bgault
At the end of the day, here's what I know...my number one team could punch it in from the one yard line first and goal.

So, while I'm not saying that OSU is the best team in the land, I do know that they have won their games so far. You can debate the strength of schedule all you want, but aside from LSU, I have no respect for anyone the SEC has beaten OOC.

Win your games = no crying. Then we aren't even having this discussion.
Posted: 1:52 AM   by Trev
This post has been removed by the author.
Posted: 1:56 AM   by Trev
Oh I see your taking credit for winning games that haven't even been played yet. That makes total sense when trying to defend that Ohio State hasn't played anyone so far this season. I assumed you knew what people are actually talking about when people say that Ohio State hasn't played anyone but apparently that was too much for you.
Posted: 1:58 AM   by duckmeister
Gee, HEY YOU BIG TEN BAFFOONS! Who have you beaten, besides other Big Ten teams? Oh, Ohio State beat a mid to second tier Washington team.

Get used to it. The Big Ten is in a down year. It won't last, but quit blamming others for your teams poor performances.
I will certainly not sit and argue that Kent State is a difficult match-up for any team sitting at the top of the BCS standings. However, if you would like to compare an SEC team that just knocked off “God's gift to college football fans” to a team that might not be as bad as everyone would like to think, I would submit Kentucky's play against the previously mentioned Golden Flashes, and this past weekends match up of Ohio State and their in-state step-child, “Kent read, Kent write, Kent play football, Kent State”. Yes, Kentucky put up more points (8) than the Buckeyes against a shared opponent (and those Buckeyes and their crummy schedule), however, they deemed it necessary to play their starters throughout. The Buckeyes decided that they only needed their starters for 30 minutes (probably could have done less). The Buckeyes chose to retire many starters at half time, while the mighty Kentucky Wildcats found themselves in a 14-14 impasse as the halftime show fired up. The potent Wildcats forged ahead with their number one back 17 times! Ohio State could muster only 4 attempts with numero uno, deciding instead to rush with non-scholarship backs- 11 times!!! “Yardage totals?” you say. Ohio State – 401. Kent State – 223. Kentucky – 484. Kent State – 453. ARE YOU KIDDING ME????? And this POWERFUL University of Kentucky beat “God’s only begotten Son”? I don’t know how you SEC fans go on, having to remedy these kinds of things. UK gives up 20 regulation points to Kent State, at home, and 27 to LSU in the same stadium? UHHHHHHH. At least LSU’s defense trumped Kent State’s by allowing Kentucky only 375(!!!!!!) as compared to 483. How does one sleep at night while faced with such conundrums?
I'm not BLAMMING (idiot) anyone, I'm just asking everyone to take it easy. It's not over until it's over. Let the talking heads look like idiots when things don't go as they say. They're getting paid, we are not.
Posted: 2:25 AM   by SasQuatch
This post has been removed by the author.
Posted: 2:28 AM   by Netizen
Trev:

Stop inferring things I'm not implying. I'm presuming you know the difference.

The purpose of my post was simply to argue that a fair assessment of one's schedule should take into account all 12 games, not 7. On that basis, Ohio State will have played a tougher schedule than any of the remaining BCS Top 5.

I didn't imply they'd win all 12, but clearly you inferred that, which was your mistake not mine.
Posted: 2:38 AM   by SasQuatch
This post has been removed by the author.
Posted: 3:07 AM   by JCF
The only team that would have a better than half chance at being Ohio State is LSU & Florida.

If your defense is not up to it--yes you Cal, USC, Oregon, Oklahoma, BC, and so on, you will find yourself not scoring enough points on one of the very best defenses in the land. Sure the Buckeyes have had a soft schedule (so far) but what have they done? Killed everyone! They have given up less than 50 points all year, and half of those points came on junk scores late after the games were long over. The Buckeyes handled Washington in their place far and away better than USC, yet we read how USC's loss to Stanford was just a "bump" in the road for the unstoppable Trojan juggernaut.

The football media has bought into Pete Carroll love, and a case of over-hyped SEC myth (which the inter-conference stats just to not show...sure the Gators killed the Buckeyes, but anyone notice how Penn State and Wisconsin one the other two Big Ten v SEC match-ups? It was the same with the 'Noles in the 90s.

And South Florida...give me a break. The Big East is as overrated as it was last season. They'll all end up with losses in games where the teams combine for 100 points.

Finally, the media is blind to the fact that Michigan and Penn State are very good football teams. How Michigan is 25 is beyond me. They got upset on day one. And then they hung their heads and got killed by a bona-fide top 5 team. But now their putting the pieces together, and I bet they will be on nine straight wins when Ohio State comes to town. And before all you start calling me out as a Buckeye homer, I'm here to tell you that OSU will lose...at Penn State. The Lions have the defense to hang with anyone and their place is a hornet's nest at night. No one cakewalks there. And guess what? The Buckeyes will still get to the Rose Bowl. Once there, they will wipe the floor with anyone the Pac-10 offers and open next year as the pre-season number one with 18 or 19 starters back from this Buckeye team.
Posted: 3:32 AM   by Victor
All I can say is...as long as everybody keeps losing Hawai'i will keep moving up...wouldn't that be funny if they ended up undefeated and ranked #2. Even funnier in the NC...one can dream.
Posted: 4:55 AM   by socnicklin
Why argue strength of schedule when half of the games played by all major schools are gimme games? Most schools only schedule one tough opponent per year for non-conference.

Florida- Western Kentucky, Troy, Florida Atlantic, FSU

LSU- Va Tech, Mid Tennessee, Tulane, LA Tech

Oklahoma- North Texas, Miami, Utah State, Tulsa

BC- Army, UMass, Bowling Green, Notre Dame

OSU- Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, Kent State

Most teams only play one hard game per year. The real tricky part, as someone already pointed out, is that they schedule these years in advance. So you can't make sure they are going to be good that year, as all teams have up and down years.
Posted: 7:41 AM   by marks86
Netizen....your condescending tone smacks of the lost arrogance of the big 10. You can cite all the computers in the world, but the bottom line is, if you honestly believe that your big 10 schedule is even close to what a team like Florida, LSU, kentucky, or even a cal/USC/oregon has to face then you are beyond help. TO DATE...not the future opposition poll that you cited, in the poll that is used by the agreed upon BCS system, Ohio State rightfully has a ranking of 57. LSU-8, Kentucky-6, Oregon-16, even OU is ahead of you at 33. Lets compare the former number 1 team's signature wins with your buckeyes. LSU beat #10 VTech 48-7
#13 Florida 28-24
#8 USCe 28-16
Lost to #7 UK in 3 OT

OSU beat NR Every School in the state of OHIO.
NR Washington
NR Purdue
NR Northwestern
NR Purdue
NR Minnesota
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Notice a theme here???
Hell, you only have one ranked team in your conference....at number 25, the same team that got waxed by Oregon and Appy. St. If you wanna talk about how good OSU is individually, you MIGHT have a case. But dont come on here spewing BS about OSU having a good schedule.
Posted: 7:57 AM   by Texbuck
As an OSU Alum, I can only say that my Bucks are this weeks Pretender to the throne. Sure, I'd love to be proved wrong, but I don't think they've really got the horses this year. And sure, Coach T is a miracle worker but this is one crazy year for college football.
Posted: 8:19 AM   by Dan
To EVERYONE: Don't look now, but there are STILL 6 or 7 games left to be played by a lot of the Top-15. Do you realize that a 2-loss team grabbing the #2 BCS slot is NOT out of the question. If somebody like Florida ran the table, aided by a couple upsets along the way (very REAL possibilities this year) they would have 2 losses & be the #2 team. Even if USF only loses once, a 2 loss SEC Champ vs. a 1 loss Big East Champ would probably favor UF. And I'm not saying UF is the only team who could have 2 losses. Oklahoma could probably lose again and not be out of it.
Posted: 8:22 AM   by Charles
It is true that ASU has quietly and confidently amassed a winning record. Had they beaten Cal or Nebraska instead of Oreg St and Stanford there would have been nothing quiet about it. It is easy to quietly build winning records against weaker competition. Speaking of that who does Hawaii play next?
Posted: 8:29 AM   by Charles
For Netizen - Everyone else is talking about who Ohio St has played. You are the only one talking about who they are going to play. Even some OSU fans are sketicle due to last year's debacle. How could USC and Florida struggle so much in the regular season, then take Michigan and OSU apart like they were AA teams? Michigan played nobody and OSU had one victory over a Texas team that was not up to par. USC & Florida played schedules that were ranked among the toughest in the nation. If overcoming challenges can make us strong where is the opportunity for Big Ten teams to develop? Against Notre Dame?
Posted: 8:33 AM   by Chad
I am a HUGE Buckeye fan. I thought this was going to be a 2-3 lose season for the Buckeyes, so I am as surprised as anyone that the Buckeyes are at the top.

1) It isnt OSUs fault that the Big Ten is down this year. Everyone has a short term memory, remember 3-4 years ago when the Pac-10 was horrible and everyone was complaining that the only reason USC was winning is cause they played no one.

2)OSU played Texas last two years out of conf. Washington this year. USC (Southern Cal) the next two years, then Miami for 2, then VT for 2 then Oklahoma for 2. This happens to be the one year where we dont have a traditional powerhouse out of conf. (I already have a hotel reserved for OSU at USC 3rd game of the year next year)

3) We have beaten NOBODY! But.... USC, Michigan, Texas, Cal, Oklahoma and Florida have all lost to a NOBODY (unranked). Everyone is saying that OSU hasnt beaten ranked opp, but these teams above have lost to an unranked opp. We are taking care of business and beating the teams we should beat. The other top 5 teams above can not say that.

4) OSU has the #1 ranked defense in the country. Has given up the fewest points (46) in 7 games. We have the #2 ranked rush defense. The #2 ranked pass defense. I dont know if you have ever heard this before but. DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS.

5) National respect does not matter, only the BCS final rankings.
Posted: 8:41 AM   by Charles
P.S. for Netizen - To answer my own question ... While players from other schools are playing a full game, gaining experience and confidence in occasional difficult challenges, you yourself said that OSU starters are sitting on the sidelines not running up the score against weak opponents. Isn't that why OSU will get clobbered again if it runs up against USC or LSU? Can you deny that when LSU took a beating from Florida that it didn't factor into the Kentucky win this weekend?
Posted: 9:11 AM   by Knox
Desperate for some perspective, any perspective, I asked a five-year-old neighborhood kid how she would rank the college teams. She answered, "Nanna, nanna, boo, boo!" Then, she ran off chortling and giggling like a young hyena on hallucinogens. Good luck, Stewart.
Posted: 9:16 AM   by Rojo Devil
I am sorry, but there is no way Ohio State deserves to be number one. I would love to say ASU should be number one, but that will be determined over the next few weeks when it plays Cal, Oregon and USC.

My only point is if OSU fans think they should be number one then they need to concede that Arizona State has just a much a claim. ASU is 4-0 in a tough Pac 10 this year and has the number one defense in the PAC 10. Look at the schedulets these two have payed and tell me who deserves to be #1. My vote at this time is for South Florida.
Posted: 9:16 AM   by Mudhen
No matter how much you cry in your beer; not matter how hard you pund the table with your shoe; not matter how loud you talk; Ohio State is in the Championship game if they win out.
Posted: 9:22 AM   by Ryan
I am amazed by the lack of intelligence in the Southeastern Conference fans. I would like to point this out. The preseason polls are the real enemy here. I have watched teams from pretty much every conference and know one thing is certain, everyone has a shot. Hold on SEC fans, I realize you believe your conference is superior to all NCAA schools but, if you take away the preseason polls you are just as average as the next guy. Instead of being so critical watch the games. Ohio State is as good as anyone around. I was shocked LSU couldn't beat a very poor Kentucky defense. I think it would help if the SEC would play the BIG 10 in an SEC/BIG 10 challenge at the end of the season. Match every team and rotate it. Otherwise we will never know which conference is best. Because minus the NC the BIG 10 was 2-1 vs. the SEC in bowl games go figure.
Posted: 9:30 AM   by D
Again the SEC talking all smacks about the conference. Stop making exceptions and grow up...

As I said all year long before their losses that SEC is a strong conference but not as strong as everyone wants to preach...

I hate OSU since I like Michigan more. Heck, I am a MAC fan for a losing team called the Buffalo Bulls and they are winning this year.

1) What I trying to state is all stats do not show any difference between Big Ten and SEC on their wins. As stated before, all conference games have situation where people will knock each other out. So a win is a win no matter what.

I remember arguing with everyone about that last year with the game of the centaury. If you want to argue with quality of conference then the NC should have been Michigan and OSU. Because they were the two best schools after that game and everyone agreed (except the SEC.... Politics are all you guys do like Urban Meyer did for UF).

So to flip flop and make the arguments of the polls that strength of schedule dictates things now seems very ... Hypocritical and inconsistent..

2) Again, I have stated the same thing. You can't use the poll to belittle one conference and strengthen your own... Either you accept the poll ranking as is for you and let be as is for other conferences. So to tell me LSU is Top 5 with SC, Florida, etc. does show their strength but you can't use that basis as your strength without seeing that OSU IS #1 in the poll. In my view, if all these teams were not preseason ranked and ranking starts in the 8th week, you might not see that many SEC teams in the poll. Why? They all started high in the polls and they have lost. It is easier to get back into the polls when you start high and win than it is to start low and win your way up.


3) When look at history for the past 5 years. SEC did not fare well. Just because one team does well does not mean that the whole conference is better. Hint like USC.. What I do see is every time SEC argues to be the best conference, their bowl games show how much they are not as strong as the conference. Using the big bowl games just show the conference powerhouses. But those conference wins are dictated by the mid-tier bowl games. Again, what we see is SEC is slightly a stronger conference but NOT AS STRONG AS YOU KEEP STATING. Let it go and remember that for those SEC fans. Again, you flip-flop your arugments to validate one thing and not the other when the same sources are the same

4) The same pollster rewards losses to top 10 schools when they are clumped with other Top 10 schools losses. Michigan losses to Div 1AA App State (who Michigan loss on a failed field goal and mistakes and App State were DIV 1AA pwoerhouse) gets knocked off the polls. But losses like USC with Stanford (as one example) drops only 8 spots. I do not believe Michigan be out of the Top 25 after their loss but it comes to show that even losses are relative. And if pollsters are going to rank, you have to penalize fairly. USC got lucky in my view. LSU loss (I could accept a 5 Spot but not a 2 like Stewart states). Michigan was the first upset and got hammered. Heck, some pollster voted for Div 1AA for the ranking. It just shows again.. Polls are BIAS.. They are not objective... These are the same "objective" thigns that favored the Big Ten last year and now the SEC this year. So again... It is subjective and do not utilize that arguments on basis of strength...

What I want to see is more OOC games with other power conference. Like all teams must have 3 OOC games against another conference. I do not care if it is a low ranked team or not.. This would shut up all the "I am bigger conference so our teams should be ranked higher". Actions speaks louder than words and show it on the field. Finances prevents it but then again, these conferences enough money to do it. Until then all conferences are created and made the same and teams will succeed on circumstances and situation. Again if LSU and USC were that good, they should not be undefeated... Enough said

At the end, what I see is Michigan could come back and even make it to the NC. Not saying they will but they could.
Posted: 9:35 AM   by Nathaniel
Ohio State's schedule up until this part of the season is an absolute joke. Combine that with the weakest Big-10 in a decade, and you have a "cake walk" for the suckeyes.

JH
Posted: 9:38 AM   by Daniel
To whmo do you think BC is going to lose? A solid defense and an offense that can outscore the rest of the schedule looks very good for BC to be undefeated or 1-loss, and to be up to win the ACC. Maybe they aren't the 3rd best team in the nation, its debatable, but losing 2 game would mean a real breakdown of some part of the team and I don't see it happening.
Posted: 9:42 AM   by Ryan
intelligent comment jh you must be a real fan of college football. you should try to blog on Redneck Football.com
Ok....all those haters that were cryin that USC only dropped to 10 after losing to Stanford, are pretty quiet this week seeing that LSU only dropped a few to 5 after losing to Kentucky. Granted UK if ranked and Stanford was not, but still. And USC dropped even more after a win. I dont see all the favortism that everyone east of New Mexico seems to think USC gets.

On another note....we seriously need a playoff. Theres no way this computer, voting, poll system is going to be completely fair all the time. (See LSU ranked ahead of UK) We need to let teams prove it on the field when it comes to crowning National Champs.
Posted: 9:59 AM   by atticus2533
First to get this out there... I am an Ohio State fan.... here's my few thoughts on this season and how the season could pan out...

Ohio State has not played anyone note worthy, at the time they played a few teams (Washington, Purdue) it seemed like great match ups and has later proved to be wrong with Washington now 2-5 and Purdue not looking very good on Saturday. True we have played some weaker opponents, whether by scheduling so called "cupcakes" or because the Big Ten is down, we can sit here and argue this til the day we die, but whats important is that Ohio State has won. As has South Florida, as has BC. LSU's loss at Kentucky is a very admirable loss, and I still think they are the number one team in the land, but in a season of college football you have to win, regardless. Do i think Ohio State can run the table? Yes they can, do I think they will? No I don't. But what I think everyone needs to keep in mind, that in college football, the only thing that matters is the "W" in the win column.
Posted: 9:59 AM   by Trev
Daniel

With Virginia Tech and Florida State coming up the next two weeks it wouldn't shock me to see them loss both of those games. This is the same Boston College team that struggled to put away 1-AA UMASS a couple of weeks ago. If they get past those two I think they will finish with out a loss.
Posted: 10:04 AM   by Trev
Tray of the West

USC lost to an unranked, and many say the WORST team in the Pac-10, Stanford at home. They then struggled with probably the 2nd worst PAC-10 team (Arizona) again at HOME.

LSU went on the road to #17 Kentucky (a team ranked in the top 10 the week before losing to South Carolina) and lost in 3 OVERTIMES.
Posted: 10:12 AM   by Tahitited
Bless you Stew....I hope you are right...Maybe this series of pitiful performances of our beloved Tigers, starting with the Tulane game, will wake up a sleepy offence who couldn't catch a pass with a fishing net saturday...and a D that never showed up at all...(where was Mr. Dorsey)Remember the final 4 LSU team who couldn't compete with an ok UCLA team Reason: Fragrance drunk with their own scent.

Love to see Kentucky beat Florida...to set up a replay in Atlanta..Geaux Tigers..
Posted: 10:12 AM   by J.W.
The absolute BEST possible scenario for this year:

South Florida and Hawaii play for the National Championship, and in a giant "who-cares" moment the ratings are lower than re-runs of Alf.

If this happens a couple more years in a row, then maybe they'll realize that the BCS was a failed experiment and either go back to either traditional bowls or a playoff, each more appealing to most fans.
Posted: 10:22 AM   by Trev
J.W.

That would be nice but unless every other team has 2 losses I don't see Hawaii coming close. There are alot of Division 1-AA teams with higher strength of schedule rankings. And they where only a missed two point conversion from losing to LA Tech.
Posted: 10:26 AM   by Jen
Quoting JW:
>>>South Florida and Hawaii play for the National Championship, and in a giant "who-cares" moment the ratings are lower than re-runs of Alf.


Hmm, I thought the championshop was about finding the best team, not appeasing television networks to maintain advertising money. Who cares if USF, Hawaii, whoever doesn't have a big fan base? This is a sports competition, not an ESPN shareholders meeting.
Posted: 10:29 AM   by Christopher
You have not given Ohio State their due credit since camp broke. I've read your column all season because there are very few editorials on college football (and I despise ESPN), but I've been met with crap every time. Unfortunately, you don't get it even when it is sitting right in front of you. So, I will no longer read your column since you cannot write intelligently. I am a better writer than you are, but unfortunately I have to work where the money flows. Loser.
Posted: 10:32 AM   by Rojo Devil
If Ohio State Runs the table they will be in the BCS championship game? I beg to differ. A one loss SEC team and BIG IF undefeated ASU or Boston College team would be in before an undefeated OSU team.

Boston College has equal or better schedule as OSU for rest of the year and there is no way ASU would not make it if they beat Cal, Oregon and USC.
Posted: 10:34 AM   by richard