Extra MustardSI On CampusFantasyPhoto GalleriesSwimsuitVideoFanNationSI KidsTNT
Commentary, news, analysis and reader-driven discussions focusing on this year's Stanley Cup playoffs.
12:44 p.m. ET, 6/01/07

The Pros and Cons of Comebacking

Posted by Brian Cazeneuve
It's a hopeful sign for the Senators that Teemu Selanne has been held to one assist so far.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Now that the Ducks have thoroughly shut down the Senators in Anaheim to take a 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals, is the series basically over? Is this a mismatch headed for a sweep after three years of seven-game finales? Or do the Sens have a realistic shot at coming back to at least go the distance? There are some good arguments for and against Ottawa:

THE PROS

1. The Ducks may have had the advantage in Anaheim, where hockey is the flavor of the week, but this game is all there is in Ottawa. Really. Ever been there? These fans are as hearty and boisterous as any in the league. It won't be as easy for Ducks coach Randy Carlyle to keep Travis Moen, Sami Pahlsson and Rob Niedermayer out against the Senators' top line when he doesn’t have the last change. That opening, however small, can give the Sens some breathing room, and life -- perhaps enough to send the series back to Anaheim tied 2-2.

2. Yes, the Sens' top line -- Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson -- was dreadful in Game 2, overpassing, turning the puck over and generating little offense. Yet, the Sens lost by . . . one goal. That line has scored 23 in this year's playoffs. It hit a rut, and you can't keep talent like that down for long. Sometimes that first goal is enough to help a team re-build its confidence. Take Anaheim's checkers away and Alfredsson won't commit six turnovers. Coach Bryan Murray spotted Mike Fisher on the first line in Game 2. With the last change, Murray will have more flexibility to make Anaheim counter-punch if he decides to call another audible.

3. I don't see Teemu Selanne on the scoreboard in this series, except for one assist. He had six points in his last three games against Detroit. He's had a bunch of shots blocked by Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov, so it isn't as if Anaheim's big guns are firing on all cylinders. An ongoing lack of scoring from the usual sources could prove fatal if the Senators get untracked and begin to break through.

4. The Ducks almost tossed away their series with the Red Wings by being too aggressive. Chris Pronger got suspended for a game because of his hit to the head of Detroit's Tomas Holmstrom. Get the Ducks a little hot under the collar and they'll take more than one foolish penalty at the wrong time. If the Sens get a lead, the pugnacious Ducks will think of sending messages rather than mounting comebacks.

5. Ray Emery kept the Senators in the first two games with some fine play. He's growing into a big-game goaltender even if his fundamentals aren't great. Not a period went by against Buffalo when Emery didn’t overplay a puck, cough up an unnecessary rebound and have trouble with a long shot, but he won four of the five games. Score a few goals for him and he'll get you some wins. What has Jean-Sebastien Giguere had to do so far? He'll be much busier in Ottawa.

THE CONS

1. Sure, playing at Scotiabank Place, the Senators get a charge of venue, fan support, time zone, currency and ways to spell center/centre, not to mention the last line change. Think they'll flip the switch just because they're wearing red? Game 2 may have been the most lopsided 1-0 game in a long time. The Sens' offense looked emaciated, as if it was firing peashooters against Anaheim's stand-up defense and diligent backchecking forwards. The shot margin was 31-16, Ducks, but it seemed much greater. Anaheim also had a 32-20 shot advantage in Game 1. Was it rust in Ottawa's once finely-tuned gears after a nine-day layoff between the Buffalo Series and the Cup final? Or do the Ducks have their number? It's likely a combination of the two.

2. Just try to win the Stanley Cup with a one-line team. It’s brutally hard. Yes, Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson are often one of the NHL's deadliest trios. They came into this series as the top three scorers in the playoffs. But the offensive talent gap to Ottawa's next line isn't so much a step as it is a fall off a cliff. OK, so Murray tried breaking them up part of the time. That could still work. But if the Ducks continue to shut these guys down, Anaheim may not need more than a goal per game the rest of the way in order to win the series.

3. Yes, the Sens’ defensemen are superb shotblockers, but, my goodness, Michelle Kwan had nothing on Joe Corvo during Pahlsson's game-winner in Game 2. Pahlsson’s outside-inside move probably still has Corvo spinning. Corvo has provided some offensive punch in the playoffs. So has Wade Redden. But the Ducks' defense is solid on all fronts. Everybody knows about the contributions of Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, but Francois Beauchemin and Sean O'Donnell have improved mightily during the season, and even if the last change keeps the Sens' top line away from the Ducks’ top checking line, Anaheim is guaranteed to have strong lines of defense there to clean up the mess.

4. Sure, the Ducks get carried away with pushing teams around once in a while, but each team drew four minors apiece in Game 2. Brad May was running around as if he wanted to stomp someone during his six minutes on the ice, yet he still skated with controlled aggression. A team that plays physically on the road can keep a home crowd very quiet.

5. Who would you rather have in your net, a Conn Smythe-winner like Giguere or an unproven commodity like Emery? Giguere came within a game of a championship in 2003. This is newer territory for Emery, who always seems to have a stretch of play where he looks vulnerable.

So how do you see it? Are the Senators as good as dead? Or does the comeback begin at home on Saturday night?

posted by SI.com | View comments |  

Comments:

Posted: 12:23 PM, June 01, 2007   by Hank Kingsley
I've been telling all the Ottawa fans here at work that the Ducks will lose tomorrow but win in 5. The loss tomorrow so they can celebrate the Cup win at home. I said a similar thing to Canucks fans two rounds ago.

Emery has outplayed Guigere but only by virtue of all the shots. That can't be held against JS as he has stopped all the shots he's had to.

I envision a rabid bunch of fans driving Ottawa to a one goal victory in game 3. And then lunch bag let down happens in games 4 and 5 and Ducks win.

I think people forget Todd Marchant. Should Murray get his match ups and not have Pahlsson all over his "big" line, Marchant will be very capable of holding the fort defensively. It's what he did in Deadmonton and he can still do it.
At first i thought I would like to see the cup awarded here in Anaheim. However, after remembering the hurt that I felt after the Devils took it away, I don't care. I never want to see the Ducks lose a game again...EVER! GO DUCKS!!!!!!!!
Has Giguere ever won a cup? Nope. Pronger? Nope. Selanne? Thats laughable...So Ottawa's lost the first two - they were road games. They'll have two more cracks to win on the road, so long as they don't lose at home. You always have a chance until you lose your first home game...
Posted: 2:28 PM, June 01, 2007   by Anonymous
Anaheim seems to be in a league of their own right now, getting underestimated wherever they go. And one thing that people forget about that last shift is the fact that the Ducks have TWO great defensive lines. The Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Dustin Penner line is extremely commited to defense, probably the most of any young offensive line in the league and they are very tough to score against.
Posted: 3:10 PM, June 01, 2007   by Anonymous
Great teams make teams that aren't quite as good look bad, and that's what the Ducks are doing to the Sens now (and I was a Sens season ticket holder for years). This isn't about Sens players failing, but about the Ducks moving to the next level, and I don't see that changing - I thinkt he Sens could squeak one out at home, but this won't go beyond 5.
Posted: 3:34 PM, June 01, 2007   by Anonymous
I hate the Ducks and thier know-nothing fans more than anyone can imagine. But they are, alas, unstopable. There is no way Ottowa is going to win this series. Hey Giggy...there's an open spot for you a few miles up the freeway. care to give the Kings a try?
Ottawa has always played their best hockey when the pressure is off them. Coming into the Finals, they looked dominant and on a mission. They were the favorites, and it rattled them. Now that pressure's on Anaheim, I think you'll see a different Ottawa team.
Posted: 4:38 PM, June 01, 2007   by Anonymous
oh look at that a kings fan coming from little cracks in the floor i understand your upset because you havent brought a cup home to southern california but its about to change maybe its time to take a few pages from the ducks and start becoming a contender again
Posted: 4:43 PM, June 01, 2007   by Anonymous
Nothing burns me more than a bunch of "flavor of the week", clueless hockey "fans" who jump on a band wagon whenever it comes around. When the Ducks first joined the League and ESPN started having games at 2pm with an "illuminated" puck, I knew that our beloved game was in a steep decline. Although I was born with a HABS "CH" tatooed on my heart, I am fervently backing the Sens just so the cup can remain in Canada where it belongs. It breaks my heart that a team called the "Ducks" from SOCAL (of all places!) may well win it all this year. If the Hockey Gods are just, they will inspire the SENS to come back while at home. God bless Canadian Hockey talent!!!
The Ducks are good team, but they are not great. They are passionate and have great leadership but not enough scoring.
The Ducks may have done well so far but the last change could even this series.
Ottawa should also act like a Duck and run the goalie.
Posted: 9:38 PM, June 01, 2007   by Anonymous
"I hate the Ducks and thier know-nothing fans more than anyone can imagine."

I hate you and your ignorant, elitist whiny schoolgirl attitude more than anyone can imagine.

You think Ducks fans know nothing? Give me a break...it's not like hockey just magically appeared in Southern California and people from the beach were curious...professional hockey has been in socal since the 70s and, whether you like it or not, hockey is thriving. One of our peewee teams (the Junior Ducks, whom I used to play for) went into your beloved Canada and won the Quebec International Peewee Tournament, which hosts teams from over a dozen countries. You forget that a lot of Southern Californians are from Canada, up north and the East Coast. Pull your head out of your rear and quit acting like we don't know anything about hockey.

You don't own the sport and you can kiss our tan, beach-loving, hockey-playing rear ends.
Posted: 11:30 PM, June 01, 2007   by Madcow
Hey Ryan how many of the sens have ever won a cup? I'm pretty sure this is Prongers second try in two years and didn't J. S. Giguere win the Conn Smyth a few years ago? Combine that with ottawas top line getting lost AND an unproven goalie in emery and you have a 0-2 hole. Good luck coming back from that.
I feel sorry for Alfredsson. Maybe he will pull a Bourque and win a cup in a few years after he leaves Ottawa.
Posted: 8:44 AM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
I guess I would have to ask: Why is Ottawa rattled by high expectations? I don't like their chances if their collective psyche is that fragile. That is usually the sign of a team that still has some growing-up to do.

The Ducks are carrying expectations as well, and are so far handling it like champs.
Posted: 10:34 AM, June 02, 2007   by If only the Kings could play.
If if if if says it all. Good luck Sens to pull off this series. The Sens will need a bunch of lucky bounces to win the next 4 of 5 games. Hard pounding work usually beats lucky bounces any day.

Watch how fast the Ducks change lines to get the matchups they want on the road. No team plays a coaches system better than the Ducks.
Posted: 11:39 AM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
Nothing has changed. Ducks did a great job on Spezza, Heatley, Alfredsson. Seems every time Alfredsson and Heatley touch the puck, they wind up on the boards or on their A**. That won't change - in fact, Ducks will go after them even harder in Ottawa, esp. at the start.
Posted: 12:12 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
I think this will be a different Ottawa team tonight. In the first two games, they a) tried too hard to do the spectacular plays and it didn't work; b) shook off the rust from that long layover; and c) played "not to lose" than they played "to win".

The two day layover was good for them to get back to the basics. I'm not saying they'll win, but they will play much better than either Game 1 or 2. If Emery continues to shine as he has, they could be going back to Anaheim all tied up.
Posted: 2:36 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
What I find laughable Ryan is the fact that your Sens have one cup winner on your squad. And that Stanley Cup champion is none other than Carolina's back-up stopper, Gerber.

I'd take Selanne's and Pronger's "laughable" expierence over any of the Sens. It comes down to heart. The Sens simply don't have it outside of Volchenkov, Phillips, Vermette and Fischer. Spezza-Alfredson-Heatley? Com'on now... they have skill but not the heart. When your team is led by Daniel Alfredson, a skilled cheap-shot artist that constantly provides "crushing" checks, mainly from behind, then you have a problem.

The Sens will win one more then the Ducks will take the series.

Sorry Ottawa, you are still the same team that got beat out by the Leafs four times in the playoffs. You'd think the Sens would learn...
Although we may see a better Ottawa team...I am not sure how much of an advantage home ice is...The Ducks have played three tough series both back east and north of the border. Expect more of the same.
Posted: 3:40 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
Not sure why so many people are so quick to count the Sens out. A lot of people counted the Avs out against the Wings when they went down three games to none. Anaheim has only won two thus far, and both on home ice. I don't have a favorite in this match up, but I do love the sport. Would love to see the Sens come back, and take it to overtime in game 7!
Posted: 3:48 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
I don't agree with the notion, that there is nothing besides hockey in Ottawa. I have to ask myself, if you've ever been there? It's a beautifal city with the nicest people you'll ever find.

As for hockey, I think we'll see a totally different game tonight, the Sens will have some more jump because they are pumped up and don't want to let their home fans down. And my advice would be to shoot more often and not over-pass on the plays because you think Jiggy is more beatable when he has to move. But consider the goal he gave up in game 5 against Detroit? A straight up slapshot he could see all the way - so Daniel, Dany and Jason keep the shots coming and make Jiggy earn it a little more than in game 2.

And nevertheless where the Cup is awarded it will always be awarded to mostly canadians, so the Ducks fans shouldn't get carried away. The Cup belongs in and to Canada. You'll just borrow it.
Posted: 6:27 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that there are more Canadians on the Ducks than on Ottawa. How do you like them apples?

Go Ducks - in 7.
Posted: 10:16 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
That was the most pathetic show of officiating I have ever seen in the sport, the despictable show by Devorski was something that merited suspension and if I had my way, termination. The Alfredson goal was obvisous, I won't say anything else about that. However the disgusting hits thrown around by Chris Neil which, were all above the neck and for the most part, could have accumulated enough penalty minutes to put the entire Ottawa team in the box for a major penalty. It is amazing that the ducks were able to score the three clean, hardworking goals that they scored.
Posted: 10:19 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
I cant believe the league mandated the Ducks have to play the Sens 4 on 5 for the rest of the series. Between that and the newly allowed kicking goals the Sens might make it a 6 game series.
Posted: 10:21 PM, June 02, 2007   by Anonymous
It looks like the Ducks need to not only beat Ottawa, but the Refs, and the Officials!
Posted: 1:52 AM, June 03, 2007   by Anonymous
Can this get anymore one-sided? Ducks, Ducks, Ducks... Ottawa played TERRIBLY in games 1 and 2 and still only lost by one goal in both games. You're all talking about ruining the Senators, well tonight, we saw two things, when Ottawa plays to their potential, the third line is just as effective as the Ducks' first line and Ottawa's forwards have to back check more, which they did in the third period.

Not that I don't respect Anaheim, I picked them in the preseason to win it all, but hey, Ottawa is the better team, they just have to show it.

Also, "but the Refs, and the Officials! " what a joke, how about Pronger's hit on McAmmond, that was really clean, no elbow to the head on that one, Holmstrom anyone? Anaheim fans don't seem to realize that the only reason Pronger gets away with half the penalties he does is because he's Pronger, a superstar... who asked to be traded, ha. Once you wrap your heads around the fact that he shouldn't have a A, you'd be much better off.
Posted: 8:36 AM, June 03, 2007   by Anonymous
The obvious disqualification for Pronger might be for the rest of the series this time. These goons have nothing to do with hockey. Then we see who will pet the Cup. I'm a Leafs fan, but I'm cheering for Ottawa, they show character this year and I put our differencies aside. Ottawa, bring the cup home,don't let it melts on the Southern heat! Besides it will be easier to relocate it next year to Toronto, right?
divider line
Search