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Talk baseball all season long with SI.com's Jacob Luft in Baseball Chatter, a journal for hot topic debates, Sabermetric ramblings and reader-driven discussions.
8/14/2006 04:57:00 PM

180 degrees

Dan Haren has outpitched Mark Mulder since they were traded for each other two years ago.
Dan Haren has outpitched Mark Mulder since they were traded for each other two years ago.
AP
We love our instant analysis, don't we? Once a trade goes down, we don't wait five minutes to declare a winner and loser. And there's nothing better than feasting on a GM who has made an obviously lopsided deal. (Just ask Wayne Krivsky about that.) Sometimes, though, we all get it wrong. The scouts guys, the numbers guys, the fanboys and the fangirls. Sometimes the team that looks like it got rooked was really the one selling the bill of goods. Sometimes the deal really was too good to be true.

Remember the Ken Griffey Jr. trade? It was a no-brainer. Mike Cameron and Brett Tomko and a couple of prospects is all it took to bring The Kid home to Cincinnati. Griffey has been productive when healthy, but he hasn't come close to justifying the price Cincinnati paid in terms of talent and dollars (nine years, $112.5 million). Meanwhile, Cameron was a key cog for a ballclub that won more than 90 games each of his four years in Seattle. Seattle later traded one of the kids in the deal, Antonio Perez, for Randy Winn, who gave the Mariners a couple of very good seasons as well.

It's easy to criticize the Griffey deal -- in hindsight. The truth is, I would have made that trade too if I were the Reds. And so would you. So would anybody. It's freaking Ken Griffey Jr.! Of course you make that deal.

The Mulder deal revisited

I started thinking about this topic while watching the A's this weekend and trying to figure out how the heck they are in first place with Rich Harden injured and a lineup that consists of Nick Swisher, an old Frank Thomas and little else. The answer: deep starting pitching, crazy good defense and a stout bullpen.

And while the A's were sweeping the Devil Rays, the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals were getting swept by the Pirates. St. Louis has dropped 10 of its past 14 games. The Cardinals' main problem appears to be starting pitching, which is what they were trying to address when they made a blockbuster deal for Oakland's ace left-hander Mark Mulder after the 2004 season.

In return for one of the prized members of their Big Three, who was about to get too expensive for the small-market A's to keep, Oakland received young starter Dan Haren, reliever Kiko Calero and catching prospect Daric Barton. Calero (47 IP, 2.87 ERA) is part of a bullpen that ranks third in the American League in ERA (3.61). And all Haren has done since the deal is flat outproduce Mulder, who has been hampered by a shoulder injury this season. To wit:

Mulder, 2005-06
22-13, 4.38 ERA, 293 2/3 IP, 159 Ks, 98 BB, 14 Win Shares
Salaries: $6,550,000, $7,750,000

Haren, 2005-06
24-21, 3.67 ERA, 385 2/3 IP, 293 K, 87 BB, 28 Win Shares
Salaries: $323,500, $550,000

Keep in mind that Haren has put up the better overall numbers while in the AL, the tougher league to pitch in. The other piece of the trade, Barton, is at Class AAA and was named the top prospect in Oakland's system by Baseball America prior to this season. St. Louis currently has one starting pitcher with an ERA below 4.00 -- Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter (3.27). So much for the notion of the big-market Cardinals taking advantage of the poor little A's in this deal, huh?

Recent 'lopsided' trades that backfired

Jan. 22, 2006: Orioles get the Mets' Kris Benson for Jorge Julio and John Maine.
Was this even a baseball trade? New York scribes, upon seeing how little the Mets were getting in return for a league-average starting pitcher, speculated the deal was made just to get rid of Benson's sexpot wife, Anna. With the Orioles, Benson has continued to be Mr. Average, while the Mets flipped Julio into Orlando Hernandez (6-4, 4.18) and Maine, who was not seen as a top prospect at the time, has solidified the back of the rotation.

Dec. 8, 2005: Rangers get the Nationals' Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge and Armando Galarraga for Alfonso Soriano.
Wasn't Soriano supposed to be a defensive liability who couldn't hit for power outside of Arlington? Plus, he was due to make at least $10 million in arbitration. Wilkerson was seen as the better defender and boasted more on-base ability. Well, Wilkerson had a bum shoulder and the Rangers' lack of power necessitated the deadline trade for Carlos Lee. Soriano has hit 38 bombs, though the Nationals blew it by not dealing him at the deadline.

Dec. 7, 2005: Cubs get the Marlins' Juan Pierre for Ricky Nolasco.
The Cubs came to scavenge at the Marlins' latest firesale, picking up the center fielder and leadoff hitter they had been coveting. But Pierre's slap-and-dash style hasn't translated well away from the spacious and speedy Dolphins Stadium. From 2003-05, Pierre batted .316 at home. At Wrigley, where the grass is so thick it could double as a cow pasture, Pierre's batting average is .261 this season. Nolasco is 11-7 with a 4.12 ERA as part of Florida's rookie brigade. The Cubs have one starter (Carlos Zambrano) with double-digit wins.

Dec. 1, 2003: D'backs get the Brewers' Richie Sexson and two prospects for Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, Chad Moeller, Chris Capuano, and Jorge de la Rosa.
Where do we start? How about with Sexson playing only 23 games for Arizona before bolting to Seattle in free agency? Capuano has developed into an outstanding starting pitcher. Overbay put in two fine years in Milwaukee before being spun off to Toronto for three players, including the useful Gabe Gross.
posted by JL | View comments |  

Comments:

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Posted: 6:44 PM, August 14, 2006   by Anonymous
hey, for outright thievery, what about AJ Piercrapski to the Giants for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser? Giants fans will be crying about that for the rest of the decade, if not longer.
Posted: 11:03 PM, August 14, 2006   by Anonymous
Yes, Juan Pierre has not hit well at Wrigley this year. However, he did get off to a slow start, just take a look at his average in April and May, and the historically thick Wrigley Field grass was cut earlier this season to a much more reasonable height.
Posted: 1:41 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
I think you may be misremembering the original analysis of the Mulder trade, which was mostly that Oakland got some good young players for Mulder--exactly what happened.
Posted: 1:47 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Whoever mentioned the AJ trade, note the article isn't about outright thievery. I don't think anyone initially thought the Twins got ripped off in that deal. Even at the time of the deal, consensus was that the Giants overpaid and that was before Liriano turned into a prospect.
Posted: 3:06 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
By mentioning the Mulder deal, you ignore the other nearly simulatenous that the A's made, sending Tim Hudson to the Braves for Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas. Thomas has collapsed offensively and can't even hit in the minors, Meyer has spent the last two years hurt and Cruz has amounted to nothing as either a D-Back or an A.

Just remember that for every Mulder trade, there's also a Hudson trade.
Posted: 3:12 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
What about Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek from Seattle to Boston for Heathcliff Slocumb
Posted: 4:31 AM, August 15, 2006   by Bryce
man, that's just like you cubs fans... makin those rediculous excuses about the cubs sucking because the grass is "historically thick". or how about, "we cant win because of a goat". man guys, thats almost as classic as steve bartman reaching out and interfering with a fowl ball with five outs left in what would have been the lsat game of the nlcs. pure classic.
Posted: 7:59 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
I'm just curious has to how the Cardinals are considered a big market team? The last time I checked, St. Louis was barely in the top 20 metro areas in the US (and only just ahead of Oakland, btw) behind such "small market" cities such as Minneapolis and Seattle and remarkably similar to Pittsburg.
Posted: 8:32 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
What about the worst trade in baseball history? The Orioles traded Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch and Steve Finley for Glenn Davis.
Posted: 9:06 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
I do have to say I love the Cubs. I'm a Cardinals fan, and I never worry about having to look in the rearview mirror and see the Cubs right behind us. They always kill themselves. Ernie Broglio for Lou Brock? Thank you Chicago, your GMs are going to be your downfall for a long time to come.
Posted: 9:09 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Now, wait a second. The worst trade in baseball history is an "old" Frank Robinson from the Reds to the Orioles for Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun, and Dick Simpson. Or maybe Broglio for Lou Brock. Neither fit this discussion.
Posted: 9:13 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
what about the tribes trade of bartolo to the expos, for cliff lee, grady sizemore, and brandon phillips? 3 solid to spectacular players
Posted: 9:19 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
As a Mets fan, I have to wonder, where does the Kazmir for Zambrano deal rank?
Posted: 9:25 AM, August 15, 2006   by KtownDaddy
for outright thievery, how about the trade Houston made for Jeff Bagwell. This set Boston back another few years to say the least. Nothing wrong with Larry Anderson but trading a top prospect for an over the hill middle reliever is crazy. Always be careful of the deadline deal.
Posted: 9:45 AM, August 15, 2006   by kdvorak
George C. would agree w/ me on this one: Ken Phelps for Jay Buhner.

Still brings Yankee fans heartache.
Posted: 9:45 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Even the Hudson trade wasn't horrible. Everything the A's got back has turned to manure, but Hudson hasn't exactly been lighting it up since the trade.
Posted: 9:55 AM, August 15, 2006   by PWILL
I believe that you would consider St. Louis a "big market" team because of the overall fan base of the Cardinals. They draw fans from Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, and obviously Missouri. They have also been in the top 5 in attendance for every year since who knows when. When you consider their history and the passion of the fan base, it's easy to see how they earn so much revenue in relatively small St. Louis.

That considered, what a horrible trade for St. Louis. And trust me; all Cardinal fans are still talking about this one. I was just talking yesterday about how a rotation next year of Carpenter, Haren, Reyes, Wainright, and Suppan would be pretty good.
Posted: 9:55 AM, August 15, 2006   by Rob
I'm trolling the depths of baseball history here, but how about an aging and somwhat near the end of this useful days Len Barker (I think?) from Detroit for a Minor League Prospect named Smoltz?
Posted: 10:05 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
St. Louis can be considered a large market in terms of baseball due to the fact they consistently draw 3+ million fans a year. Since 2000, they haven't dropped below 7th in overall attendance.
Posted: 10:18 AM, August 15, 2006   by Luke
The Cardinals are considered a big market team because of their enormous fan base across the midwest. Much of this has to do with the 50,000 watt KMOX broadcasting their games (until 2006).
Posted: 10:21 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
I definitely don't remember hearing that the trade was a lopsided win for the Cards from the "numbers guys". In fact, I just looked up the old Baseball Prospectus articles, and the sentiment there was that Haren would likely be better than Mulder immediately, and with Calero and Barton thrown in, the A's had done very well.
Posted: 10:32 AM, August 15, 2006   by Michael
Randy Johnson to the Astros for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama. Johnson only played in 11 games for the Astors although they did make the playoffs. That is an awful lot to give up for 11 games of great pitching. Those guys helped the Mariners win a lot of games in the years that followed. The Mariners really did well in letting there three big stars walk in the late 90's. (A-rod, Johnson, and the always iffy Griffey)
Posted: 10:42 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Detroit's haul from the Smoltz 'trade' wasn't Barker, it was Doyle Alexander - who by the way kicked butt for the rest of that year and helped the Tigers get into the playoffs - only to lose to the eventual champs, the Twins.
Posted: 10:47 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
this goes back a bit but the jays getting robbie alomar and joe carter from SD for Mcgriff and tony fernandez looked like an even trade. Two world series later, didin't turn out that way.
Posted: 11:15 AM, August 15, 2006   by jdrose
If the A's pulled a fast one on the Cards with the Mulder trade, the Dodgers paid them back nicely in this last off-season. Billy Beane gave up Andre Ethier (who, at .344, should be NL ROTY) for an overpaid Milton Bradley. If Ethier doesn't turn into Todd Hollandsworth, this trade should definitely make next year's list.
Posted: 11:15 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Being a Jays fan who has been frustrated by our inability to shore up our middle infield, my vote has got to go for the Loaiza for Michael Young trade which has robbed us of up-the-middle stability for the past 3 seasons. Yikes.
Posted: 11:36 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
The Indians sent Coco Crisp to the Red Sox for Kelly Shoppach and Andy Marte. There were others in the trade, but I believe time will show that Cleveland hosed Boston in this deal.
Posted: 11:40 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Well don't know if this is recent enough but, how about Matt Williams for Jeff Kent, Jose Vizciano, and Joe Roa. Sabean had to go on Local SF Radio to say he wasn't an idiot.
Posted: 11:52 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Hey, don't forget TN and N. MS when you talk about the Cardinal territory. A survey in the leading Memphis paper a few years ago revealed that half of the baseball fans in the area were Cards fans and that was before we got their AAA franchise. Also, you should measure market size by the revenue produced from local tv contracts. That makes the Cards a clear mid-market franchise with the best fanbase in the country. If Red Sox fans were as passionate they could afford a $250 million payroll.
Posted: 11:55 AM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
OK, for the guy that mentioned the Tim Hudson trade, Hudson has not been the #1 guy the Braves were looking for & his ERA is almost 5.00.... which doesn't even qualify as #5 starter numbers. He's a huge reason why the Braves are not making the playoffs this year. Granted, the Braves traded crap for him, but they got the same in return (so far).
Posted: 12:19 PM, August 15, 2006   by Ryan from PA
I can think of a few horrible trades that nobody has mentioned.

1. The phils giving up scott rolen for polanco , bud smith and timlin...

2. the phils giving up schilling for travis lee and padilla...

3. tim hudson for greg vaughn - wait that was my fantasy league a few years back...
Posted: 12:41 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
While not initally considered a major deal (maybe not even a deal by some), during the Rule V Draft a few years ago the Marlins made a selection and almost immediately flipped the kid to the Twins. The pick's name...Johan Santana. If I recall correctly, the fish got some minor leaguer who's done nothing back in return for the eventual Cy Young winner.
Posted: 12:56 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
One lopsided trade that comes to mind for me is the deal where the Cubs got Larry Bowa and Ryne Sandberg from the Phillies for Ivan DeJesus.

By the way, not all cubs fans think they are cursed. Some of us actually believe that they just stink.
Posted: 1:04 PM, August 15, 2006   by Shawn
As a Met fan i can only wince everytime i hear the name Kazmir... Victor Zambrano? ug...
Posted: 1:18 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
RE: Hudson to Braves

Not like Atlanta got all that much in that deal either. They've got a declining 31-year-old pitcher with an ERA over 5 and a shoulder that appears to be shutting down on him. Talk about lose-lose.
Posted: 1:24 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Also...let us not forget the 5-for-one deal that landed Cleveland Julio Franco (and at least one more solid MLB player) for VON FREAKIN' HAYES!. I was six years old when they pulled the trigger on that, and even I knew that wasn't a good idea.
Posted: 1:26 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
well being a Tigers' fan, I can say we got 2 steals by getting Carlos Guillen for basically nothing, and getting Polanco for Ugueth Urbina.....who's still in jail.
Posted: 1:30 PM, August 15, 2006   by sharkswithfrickinlaserbeams
Another recent trade thought of as meaningless by almost everyone was Phil Nevin for Chan Ho Park. Park has resurrected his career in San Diego while pitching with much greater confidence, while Nevin has floundered and was dumped on another team as soon as the Rangers could. Texas even gave the Padres millions of dollars to do the deal which has turned into another heist.
Posted: 1:36 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Yeah that Tim hudson deal went really south for the A's huh? He has just been so incredibly dominant with the Braves. How much are they paying him again?
Posted: 1:37 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Not that Aaron Rowand has been bad, but, how good has Jim Thome been for the White Sox?
Posted: 2:09 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
any trade made by Ed Wade of the Phillies should not really be considered in relation to this article since every trade he made was obviously bad for the team when it happened. that includes the Rolen trade (Rolen wanted out and was gonna bolt at the end of the season regardless).

However! I will say that sending Polanco to Detroit for the overrated Urbina & useless Ramon Martinez was a really bad move that some people in Philly felt was a good idea since it had Urbina setting up Wagner. But it turned out bad, especially considering how poor Nunez is hitting as Bell's replacement. Polanco could be the lead-off guy that Rollins never will be.
Posted: 2:09 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
I think the best way to look at the Hudson deal is to say the A's lost Tim Hudson (A's ace) and got Brad Halsey (the guy who gave up 714) in return
Posted: 2:15 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
St. Louis is considered a big market team because their fans whine in such great number that you'd think there were 100 million of them.
Posted: 3:17 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
It's the pitching mound. Tim Hudson tore it up while with Oakland, and look where he's at now in Atlanta. Dan Haren comes to Oakland and all of a sudden is heir-apparent to membership in the Big Three. You know what I'm thinking, though, is this: If I'm Barry Zito, I'm telling my agent to get a deal done in Oakland sooner rather than later. It might cost a few millions per year to stay, but call it insurance against getting blown up like Hudson and Mulder.
Posted: 3:55 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
tigers...luis gonzalez for karim garcia...
i'm still waiting for an explanation from randy smith.
Posted: 4:01 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields. Enough said.
Posted: 4:11 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
makes you wonder what goes on in Texas. They could have kept Soriano, and moved him kicking and screaming to left, and plugged kinsler in at second. They've gone full circle to replace his power.
They still won't win without pitching, which for some reason they won't trade for. go figure.
Posted: 4:23 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
John Garland for Matt Karchner
Jose Contreras for Esteban Loiaza
Ozzie Guillen (and others) for LaMarr Hoyt
Posted: 4:38 PM, August 15, 2006   by nevets101
For every sucessful Mike Piazza or John Maine deal the Mets have made, they have also made these legendary blunders:

- Losing Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano

- Losing The Franchise, Tom Seaver for Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, Pat Zachary and Dan Norman

-Losing Nolan Ryan for a sack of flour...

You get the picture. The Mets were simply due.
Posted: 5:09 PM, August 15, 2006   by Zack
Could it be that the A's pitchers tend to perform according to the pitching coach?

Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder have declined progressively after leaving the A's, Haren has solidified himself as a pitcher in the AL.

Kinda reminds me of a plethora of journeymen pitchers that have landed with Atlanta during the Mazzone era and have resurrected their careers for a season or two (Burkett, Ortiz, Wright, among others)

Which brings me to another point -- Jason Marquis and Leo Mazzone never liked each other and it wasnt until he landed with the Cards that he started to be more consistent

Of course you cannot excuse a pitchers success (or lack thereof) because of the pitching coach -- Just look at Josh Beckett, who was supposed to solidify the Red Sawx's rotation and is because of his hotheaded attitude that he has a 5.02 ERA. He's a hurler more than a pitcher, you cannot expect to overpower every batter when you're falling behind with a fastball (and this hurts me a lot since I'm actually a Red Sox fan)
Posted: 5:35 PM, August 15, 2006   by Michael
One of the worst trades I think was the Dodgers trading Pedro Martinez to the Expos for Delino Deshields, who was a complete flop. We all know what became of Pedro.

Trading Paul Konerko was another huge blunder the Dodgers made.
Posted: 5:53 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Dontrelle Willis for Matt Clement anyone
Posted: 6:44 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
The A's are consistently better than the San Francisco Giants year after year.
Posted: 7:22 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
I think one thing you guys fail to understand is that this article is about lopsided trades that have occured recently and how they have backfired by presenting the relevant statistics up to this point in time.

I think just about any casual baseball fan can name about a dozen of the famous lopsided baseball trades of all time... these things are common baseball knowledge and would not be worth writing an article about.

But then again, here we have "common" people discussing things that are common knowledge. I guess if I want more intelligent conversation I should seek more intelligent company. :)

Carry on.
Posted: 7:25 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
Len Dykstra and Roger McDowell from the Mets for Juan Samuel from the Phillies.

Another Mets blunder.
Posted: 7:33 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
the cardinals a large market team? every year, more people go to cardinals games than live in the city. the difference is usually about a million people. that's a pretty small group of people to sell merchandise and tv networks to (which will never happen in st. louis, due to the small population).
Posted: 8:31 PM, August 15, 2006   by Anonymous
The Hudson deal is not terrible at all. If you look at the trade off it's one last year of Hudson and two draft picks for Halsey, who was traded for Cruz, and the possibility of Meyer coming back to pitch.

I'd say it's not that bad of a deal and they are getting some benefit out of it without having to pay alot. Not to mention the fact that Hudson's 05 season would have translated to a terrible one for the A's.

As for Bradley, he's getting paid 2 million and with his defense and basic spark to the team since his return, he's going to make that trade look much more in the A's favor.
Posted: 1:28 AM, August 16, 2006   by Anonymous
not only did the brewers get cappy and overbay, who was turned into zach jackson, gabe gross and dave bush, but spivey was traded straight up for tomo ohka, a very solid pitcher. the brewers didn't lose production at first either cause prince fielder was just waiting to eat up major league pitching. so all in all, richie sexson was turned into 2 solid starters in bush and ohka and a very good one in capuano. one position player for 3 starters isn't bad and the dbacks have to be kicking themselves for that trade
Posted: 12:56 PM, August 16, 2006   by Anonymous
What about Homer Bush of the Yankees to the Blue Jays for Roger Clemens. Was someone else included as well.
Posted: 4:57 PM, August 16, 2006   by Anonymous
Gee, remember when the Cubs STOLE Clement and Alfonseca from the Marlins in exchage for Julian Tavarez and a couple of throw ins... one of whom was Dontrelle Willis?
Posted: 3:39 PM, August 17, 2006   by Anonymous
A-Rod for Soriano. We got an MVP canidate for the next 6 years.
Posted: 12:13 AM, August 18, 2006   by Anonymous
Seaver,Kazmir, or Nolan Ryan...ever wonder what the fool that was running the Mets at the time of those trades was thinking?Isn't pitching ''supposed'' to be 90% of the game??????
Posted: 11:34 AM, August 18, 2006   by Anonymous
what about placido polanco for ramon martinez and ugeth urbina
polanco was a huge part in the tigers lineup until he got hurt
and martinez is on the phils bench
and urbinas on jail
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