The fact is that the experts, and they are experts, ignore a few facts about the Cardinals. First, in all the predictions, the managers were not brought up as part of the equation. Second, whilst the pitching staff of the Cardinals was erratic, it is far superior than the Mets'. Also, a sound analisys of defense was ignored and all predicted the Mets to win (because of their awsome offense); good pitching and good defense always stops good hitting. I predicted the Cardinals in 7 games; I will take it in six!

Very interesting observations, but I'm really wanting an update on Verducci. I'm stunned to see him posting columns on the Cubs of all teams, in the middle of a competitive NLCS. I'm hoping for something in the lines of how the Cardinals, if they have any decency in them at all, would forfeit the right to play in the World Series if they pull off the historical upset, and still allow the dominating Mets to play in their place. This is obviously a fluke, or that patented Midwest bias is in play, and MLB is pulling the strings behind the scenes. Of course as Heyman says, the Mets injuries are really to blame. St. Louis hasn't really had to contend with those issues. If personnel other than Mulder, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen and Isringhausen had to miss significant time or deal with injuries maybe, but that group? They couldn't have had much to do with being 5 games over 500 for the season.
As a lifelong Cardinal fan,I'm literally sick right now, knowing that we have no business putting the Mets through this kind of series. The proper thing to do would have been to get swept, to allow them to prepare for the World Series. I doubt I could even watch the atrocious excuse for baseball the redbirds are playing right now if they undeservedly do make the series.
I will say it's a lot easier to like these Mets than those teams we had to contend with in the 80's. It's got to be exciting looking at Reyes, knowing that whether or not he makes the Series this year or not, you've got to believe he will be shining on this stage for a long, long time. I'm waiting for some GM to realize that if you are going to invest megabucks in a superstar, it ought to be someone like him, although I doubt there will be many who are. Seems to me, the Mets got him pretty cheap. What a bright future for them.

Poor defense is exploitable. A team is a lot more likely to run on Mike Piazza than on Yadier Molina, for example.

Given the nature of the Cardinals - a lineup full of Hitters as opposed to Batters, such that they're not necessarily great at power numbers but they're coached well, understand when and how to hit the opposite way better than most teams, etc. - does it stand to reason that they are better at exploiting opposing teams' defensive failings?

In other words, Mr. Sabermetric, is there a way to compare offenses by looking at how opposing defenses fare against them?

This is a little bit of a stretch in that Scott Spiezio clearly wasn't attempting to hit two freak triples like he did, but might there be something to it?

That last stat with all the charts proves your a loser and never play any sports, just complain about people you are jealous of

I appreciate you actually talking about this. I've watched each game and have wondered why they didn't play Milledge or have kept Xavier Nady (who isn't much better, but at least moves faster) back in the trade for Perez. I know that Green had a history in the past of producing big results (although not in big games), but his fielding has been atrocious, as you mention. He even looks pained as he goes out for the balls (a "not again" look seems to cover his face). In addition, he had the chance last night to win the game (or tie it, at least) with even a bloop single and one out in the 8th, and couldn't pull through. Why trade for his contract unless he produces? I'd agree that he has to go. If you're going to not hit and miss all of your fielding moments, why get paid that much?

One of the best fielding metrics out there is UZR, or ultimate zone rating, but MGL stopped posting them once he got hired by the cardinals, but since his contract ran out there, hopefully we can see more soon. The next best one I can think of is Chris Dials system over at Baseballthinkfactory.org . After the postseason David Pinto will also break down what each player was worth using his probabilitic model of range .

But yea, Green is not a good fielder in right field, never really was, and his only saving grace was his arm, but he doesn't really have much of that any more either.

Anon 2:58 p.m.,
I'm sorry but Verducci doesn't take requests.
-- JL

It amazes me how writers and fans are talking about this series and describing the Mets as the huge favorites and that if the Cardinals win it would be HUGE, COLLOSAL upset. Yes the Mets were favorites but onlt because the Cardinals had done nothing.

Which team, with basically the same lineup, has been to the ALCS three years in a row?

Which team has the perrenial MVP favorite and reigning Cy Young Award winner?

Yes, the Mets had a solid year, but it was not dominating. They were just consistent and never went on a big losing streak. What was their longest winning streak? Not more then 7 in a row.

This was supposed to be a coming out year for the Mets where they were going to compete for the Division, slip in as a wild card and get some playoff experience for their kids. The fact that they are making this run, and it is not over yet, is a testament to the players and coaches. They are not done in this series, and they are also not done after this year.

All I am saying is, Cardinal fans should stop making it seem like they are David up against Golliath, and Sports Writers should stop making it sound like this would be such a big upset if the Cards do end up winning.

I don't think you need sabermetrics to figure out how poor Green is in the field, and what a liability he's been offensively and defensively since the Mets signed him. At the time, it seemed so necessary to pick up Hernandez when Sanchez went down, even if it meant parting with Nady. Hindsight being 20/20, I think Omar must be looking back on that trade with some disgust. Hernandez hasn't contributed much, and the Mets have surely missed Nady's bat. He wasn't exactly Gold Glove material out in right field, but he sure as heck could field better than Green. I've been lamenting the Nady trade since it happened. Green just doesn't fit in. I'm confident we wont see him in a Mets uniform next year.

Mike,
I've referenced Chris Dial's stuff before. It's a good system. I didn't see it updated through the end of the season over on the Factory, however.
-- JL

Its true that the Cards were disrespected but in all fairness to Cards fans, you guys have gotten lucky. Just look at the way Weaver has pitched. On the other side the Mets' pitching staff fell apart the week before the playoffs began! El Duque and Pedro got hurt and Trachsel's wife is cheating on him. Thats 3/5 of the rotation bailing out with no time to get replacements. You ve lost people in your lineup but its not like you lost Pujols and Rolen the week before the playoffs. Last I checked those guys are in there. Hurt but no in there. Now Maine, Perez are starting for the Mets. The real question is how bad are the Cards that they havent finished this out yet?

I have watched every game of the series and i'm truly mystified at Green's fielding. There are little leaguers out there with better instincts than he does out there. I don't know if i'd want Milledge out there and I know their options are limited with Floyd crippled once again, but something has to be done. Green's AB's look almost as bad as his fielding. You can credit the Cards pitching for some of that, but c'mon... he's probably got more AB's than half the team combined. A veteran with years and years of experience has to know how to put the ball into play and score some runs.

I'm a Mets fan and i'm deeply troubled right now with our starting pitching and how poorly the Mets are playing, overall. You know we're in trouble when Reyes stops smiling.

I agree. Seth Green plays the outfield about as well as you!

I want to comment on the total lack or respect shown by the media to the Cardinals. In what is turning into one of greatest upsets in recent baseball history the number of stories revolving around the NLCS are pathetically small. Oh, Tom “Steinbrenner” Verducci spins off some Lou Piniella Cubs spiel that could have easily been written AFTER the NLCS was determined. He then does something unthinkable and writes a second column (when was the last time he wrote 2 columns in one day) and you might have thought he would have covered the only ongoing series in baseball but, no, he tells of the great Tigers turn around. I guess when you are a homer like Tom you don’t want to even contemplate a post season with out a New York team or give props to Tony La Russa and the Cardinals especially Jeff Weaver for a fine game. Hey, who cares we are St. Louis "we don’t need no stinkin’ respect" we will win on our own terms and show you real class by tipping our caps to the opposition. As for Luft, and this puff piece on Shawn Green, I guess when this is all done he will be the Bill Buckner of 2006. If he would have caught this or hit that or or or… With this line of thinking I guess the Mets didn’t win it all in 1986. Bill Buckner lost it for the Red Sox. So let us asterisk the 1986 World Series championship with * won on error by Bill Buckner. Or the year before the Royals in 1985 should have an asterisk * won on wrong call by Don Denkinger. There is a reason they play the games and don’t just give it to the team with the best Vegas odds. It is so there can be Fall CLASSICS like this one. No matter what your team this has been one of the more entertaining in recent years. Should Carpenter smoke the Mets line-up and send the Cardinals to the World Series and the Mets to Boca Raton for a round of golf, I wonder what will be the next round of disrespect and degradation hurled at the under-dog Cardinals. None of this will matter to St. Louis fans, we would love the chance to play in another World Series respected or not. Tonight maybe Mr. Green will make one of those catches or maybe not but you have to remember TEAMS win not the individual players. One player can make or break a single game look at Willie McGee in Milwaukee 1982 World Series, two spectacular catches and a home run won the game for the Cards but it didn’t win the series. Green should not wear the collar there are a number of Mets who have contributed to this situation. Don’t forget the Cardinals have played the games and put a stop to the Mets with 2 outs and runners in scoring position every time. So after my lucky guess last night i'll run it out for another shot tonight. The Cardinals should wrap this up with the fine pitching of Carpenter and a score of 6-1. Not a shot at the Mets or anything it is how I see it going tonight. The Cardinals will score all their runs off of John Maine and Carpenter will get pulled once he surrenders a run to the Mets. The Kids in the Bullpen will hold on to the lead and the Cardinals will be off the World Series. GO CARDS!

Craig

I'm really amused by all these excuses the Mets fans are using now that they feel the heat. I bet that all these fans claiming how difficult it is for the Mets to win without their "real lineup" were the same ones mocking the Dodgers for losing to the same team. yes, you are missing a lot of your starters, but don't downplay the fact that the Cardinals have not had their all-star closer,Isringhausen, their "#2 starter" Mulder, their all-star and lead off hitter, Eckstein, for the last month and a half, their all star/gold glove center fielder,Edmonds, for much of the season...have had a 3rd baseman coming off of shoulder surgery who played a horrificly bad September (like the rest of the team)...or that Weaver was DOA on arrival in July.
Go ahead and make excuses. I would if I were you, too

Craig,
Talk about shattering the mold of the laid-back Midwesterner. Did you even come up for air during that rant?
-- JL

The reference to being a "member of
the tribe" was way, way off-base. It contributed nothing to the story
and showed us the author's ignorence.

Cardinal fans need to stop talking about how "disrespected" their team was and Met fans need to stop talking about who isn't playing, and concentrate on who is actually playing.
The reason why people wrote the Cardinals off is that they won 83 games and limped down the stretch. As for the Mets, injuries are part of the game, it's just unfortunate for them they happened so close to the playoffs.
With that being said, you still need to win 4 games in the series, and I still think the Mets will pull out the victory at home in front of 2 raucous crowds.

Look again: "*fellow* member of the tribe." A leetle joke there, not out of line at all (and a subtle note about the relative paucity of Jews in professional sports, unless I'm reading too much into it).

The sad thing about the NLCS is that with all of the injuries and weak pitching on both the Mets and Cardinals it probably does not matter who takes the series. I just hope that the winner will put up a fight in the World Series to make it interesting against the Tigers (or at least they can both bother to show up unlike their last appearances respectively).

What happened to Sean Greens defence? I recall as a Blue Jay oh so many years ago, he was regarded as a superior dfensive player. Is it just time catching up?

I have to say it again..."The New York Mets are Pond Scum."

I agree with the poster who said it's odd that the Cardinals would be treated as such underdogs by the media.

They really do have many of the same players they've been taking to the NLCS for the past 3 seasons now guys.

Yeah they played bad in September, but so did the Tigers. And all we heard after they started beating up on the Yankees was "pitching and defense, pitching and defense" (nevermind that the Yankees were tops in the league in turning batted balls into outs).

The Cardinals have the edge defensively at practically every position. I mean, the Mets don't have a significant defensive advantage at a single position. They are a little better at shortstop and centerfield, that's it. And they are thoroughly outclassed at first base, right field, and second base.

Well all the Mets starters got hurt. Well you know what? The Cardinals bullpen was completely patchwork and it's stepping up. Your boy Billy Wagner blew a game by giving up a homer to So freaking Taguchi. Nobody should be suprised by Scott Spiezio. Yeah he's had a rough couple of years there, but didn't he knock in like 50 something runs in part time play this year? Sounds like solid production to me. Wasn't he clutch for the Angels too when they made their run? Guess you're either clutch or you're not (right A-Rod)?

No offense but I remember when the series was just about to start how all the Mets fans were predicting the Mets to win in 4, to see the complaints about it now is quite funny I think. Now the Cards may or may not win, personally I hope they do. However the point is that underestimating a team in the playoffs is a huge mistake. What I find atrocious is that for what seems like the fourth year in a row the NL is still playing while the AL team is sitting around doing nothing for a week before the World Series, can't we get some rest for the NL so the teams come in on the same rest?

Craig,

Do they not have schools in the Midwest that teach the concept of the paragraph?

And Detroit will hose the Cards in five games. Once again, the door will be slammed in their inferior face.

Defence? Take off, you hoser!

I just wanted to ask you luft what were all you so called experts thinking picking the mets in 5 and 6? Did anyone look at the numbers? Pitching beats hitting in the postseason everyone agrees with that so look at the numbers before the series. The mets staff doesnt come close to the cards, its not that they fell apart, its that the Cards staff is better. Carp is the best pitcher next to Santana and maybe Doc Holloday..Suppan had the third lowest ERA in the second half of the year so no suprise he shut down the mets, and Weaver his last 5 starts entering the postseason and 3 starts now in the postseason the guy has been that great prospect eveyone expected. I feel fully confident the Cards can get 5 great innings from weaver everynight he pitches. I full fully confident Suppan and Carp can shut down any lineup everynight..so come world series i want you experts to take a closer look at the numbers and realize it wont be a sweep by the tigers, sure they have a better overall staff and team, but this is October, and the Cards like the Tigers seem like a team of destiny. Albert Pujols is pissed off (evident by comments and reaction after his home run where he store down Glavine for a while on his trot). I just find it funny that nobody gives Suppan and Weaver their credit for going out and winning, everyone wants to keep saying their getting lucky when the stats suggest different. Side note Suppan is the winningest playoff pitcher over the past 3 or 4 years, the guy is clutch. So in a matchup against the tigers, i fully expect the series to go at least 6 with Carp and Suppan doing there thing and getting at least one win from Weaver, the only game i know they will lose is when Reyes pitches. But they only need 4 wins so either Carp wins both or Suppan does, and weaver picks up that 4th victory. And the Cards Bullpen again look at the numbers experts. Josh Kinny and Tyler Johnson and Adam Weingwright Have just been dealing over the past 2 months. they stopped using guys like Hancock come playoffs, and guys like tompson and looper and flores have had good numbers all year, come playoff time your bullpen speically a LaRussa one gets better because they are put in situations to their advantage, unlike the regular season where you might pitch to a number of hitters left or right, you know can match guys up, advantage pitcher. GO CARDS, I love to see ALberts intensity in this postseason he seems to be getting more nad more upset with all the doubters of the Cards, so keep doubting casue that guy wont let them lose.

I'm glad this column was written, as Green's defense has bothered me all through the playoffs. I couldn't help but notice what appeared to be a look of disgust on Glavine's face after that bloop single dropped in front of Green last night. It didn't occur to me that a lack of foot speed was his problem, I just thought it was a lack of hustle. I've never seen him dive for a ball, and he seems terrified of the fence. He seems to trot after balls that go near the fence, instead of hustling over, getting set and jumping. Nor does he bother to run in on anything, he's like a middle-aged jogger out there.. Really, he makes Ron Swoboda look like a Gold Glover in comparison.

Depth is usually a critical component/quality of championship calibre teams in most team sports. Baseball is no exception. Yes, the Mets rotation has been exposed by injury, and yes, the outfield corners have suffered a somewhat similar fate (i.e., Floyd). Nevertheless, every team in every professional team sport deals with injuries, and the most successful teams generally have the ability to overcome such adversity. Injuries are a fundamental part of the game and, as good as Minaya has been, he still has a ways to go in terms of balancing and stabilizing the quality of his roster. Some of the players upon whom the Mets have depended most heavily this season have reputations for being injured more frequently than others. Then again, some of the current injuries just represent unusually bad luck/timing. Regardless, the fact is that the healthy Mets are not consistently playing to a level of quality that mitigates these weakness - it's that simple. The Cards have dealt with their own injuries and are simply taking the Mets to the woodshed...yes, thta's how it feels to us Met fans. I want to believe that the Amazin's will pull this out...but I'm having a hard time getting there - I just don't feel the magic. (Every time the Mets score the Cards respond - the opposite is NOT true.) I don't think it's fair to say that the Cards don't deserve to play in the World Series - they're taking it (or the Mets are giving it to them) on the field, which is all that matters. If Carp mows them down tonight, St. Louis deserves to face Detroit, and I'll wish them the best of luck. They'll need it, because Detroit looks ready, steady and heady. Leyland hasn't accepted "excuses" and his Tigers have overcome every challenge they've faced to date. Maybe if Willie could similarly inspire the Metropolitans, they'd be able to transcend and ascend, instead of wallowing a fading. Other than Carlos & Carlos, I haven't seen much 'stepin' up' going on...

Any fielding metrics that rate Carlos Beltran at 8.3 and Andruw Jones at 5.0 are seriously out of whack. Beltran is a better hitter than Jones but he isn't remotely close to Andruw as a defensive center fielder.

Sometimes you have to put down the Sabermetrics and actually watch a few games.

mets fans are similar into yankees fans. they claim "Its true that the Cards were disrespected but in all fairness to Cards fans, you guys have gotten lucky." this couldnmt be further from the truth. the cards have outplayed, outmanaged, outpitched and outhit the mets. end of story.

You Cardinals experts/fans need to get a clue. The far superior Mets are still pulling this one out, no prob. Winning in NY is very very difficult, particularly for a .500 club like the Cards .... its been a pure miracle that the Cards even won 3 NLCS games. The luck will stop right here, as every break in the world cannot keep going the Cards way.

"Craig,
Talk about shattering the mold of the laid-back Midwesterner. Did you even come up for air during that rant?
-- JL"
And, JL, did you breath at all while ranting about Green? Or, while reading Craig's observations?
The fact remains that all the experts were wrong about the Cards; even with Pedro and Hernadez healthy Saint Louis has a better pitching staff than the Mets; the Cards confronted many health problems during the season; when they were heathy...no team could beat them. They seem to be healthy now...Saint Louis will be in the World Series!

As a Dodger fan, I can just be glad they got rid of Shawn Green when they did. And on the other hand be dissapointed that the only "good fielding play" Green made was precisely against the Dodgers in the NLDS on that humiliating double play at home. By the way, has Little and his third base coach been fired yet.

give the guy a little bit of credit, yeah he's slow and awkward, but he does have an absolute gun for an arm, so when he does get it in, it comes in fast.

Hey Joe Schmo,

Beltran and Delgado have lit us up, I'll give you that. And I'm a big fan of Tommy Glavine. But how can you call the Mets "far superior" when they've been outscored? Sure, St. Louis has been a bit lucky in the series--but it's about time our luck changed. Earlier in the year it seemed like we couldn't buy a break. So get off your high horse and remember, just about anybody can assemble a decent team with 100 million bucks to throw around. Have some respect and just admit your boys are getting outplayed at the moment.

Green killing the Mets? Come on JL; Mets were DOA once they realised there were no more games against the Dodgers...Who killed the Dodgers???
Cardinals are the better team; always have been.
But, if the Mets get lucky, I will root for them in the World Series; at which point I will, like you, be looking for lots of goats.
Only the Cardinals can beat the Tigers; let's get 2 day's rest!

The Cardinals do not deserve a lot of respect. They won what, 83 games in the National league. The national league is an embarrassment. They won like a third of the games against the American league. They have been swept the last two years in the world series. Scott Spiezio who was terrible with the Mariners before he went to the National league suddenly looks like an all-star in the National (inferior) League. Whoever limps out of the National league will most likely get clobbered by the Tigers.

Funny, all they can rap me on is a paragraph. Well, in this BLOG world it is hard to make and keep paragraphs. I am off to watch the Cards head to the World Series. GO CARDS!

Craig

One of the great things about baseball is that you have to play the games out. It isn't a rotisserie league. Some players get hot, some players get cold. I agree that good pitching generally stops good hitting, but then again, some of the Cards' pitchers are not that good. Either the Mets players have tensed up, or the so-so pitching has somehow become great pitching (even in the Game 1 loss, Weaver only allowed two runs). Some players become clutch (Spezio) and some don't (David Wright). And while sometimes the patter repeats from year to year, sometimes it doesn't--Kenny Rodgers was always a flop in the post season; this year he had his mojo going. On a 162 game schedule, the better teams generally make it to the playoffs, but in short series, a team that might win a majority of games if pplayed out statistically over a longer period of time can get swept out. Fascinating game. Unfortunately for NYers, right now, the baseball gods are just not smiling on the NY teams.

You are absolutely right about the suspect defense of Green and Delgado. A long-time Blue Jay fan, I agreed with the team's decisions to bail on both of them. Their defense has always been mediocre (although not as bad as Green is now playing. He has raised incompetence to a whole new level)And pitching and defense still wins games.

The Tigers are awesome and I'd put my money on them, but let's face it: the AL is whack. Thanks to the DH, all the strategy is sucked out of the game. Even worse, teams like the Yanks and BoSox put the squeeze on small and mid-market teams by driving the price sky-high on free agents. That's bad for the game overall. So while I completely agree that the AL is cleaning up these days, I think it's too bad. I'd rather watch football than a no-strategy, dumbed-down AL game. Go Cards!

The bottom line is this: the playoffs are about momentum. Any team can beat any other team if they are on a roll and the other is in a drought. How do you explain the Yankees? As much as I hate them, they are a better team than the Tigers. And the Mets are a better team than the Cardinals. Not by much, but they are better. The Cardinals just happen to have the momentum right now.

And as a sidenote: All of you immature babies who call us "Pond Scum," get a life. What have you guys got against Mets fans? You should be hating on the boys in the Bronx. I don't appreciate being insulted like that. I don't disrespect you guys, don't disrespect me.

Being married to a die-hard Mets fan, its hard to keep my mouth shut when I see bad things being done. Green is atrocious in RF. He takes horrible lines to ball, makes poor throws back to the infield, and is worthless at the plate. Delgado hasn't put on any clinics defensively either, but at least his bat has done SOME talking so far.

Had the Mets' rotation been intact, I'd put my money on them pretty quickly.

Frankly, as a Braves fan, I get tired of hearing how good the Cardinals have been for XX years, and how good the Yankees are supposed to be, when all they have done is the same thing the Braves have, which is be good during the season, get to October, and lose.

Why is it these teams get a "pass," but the Braves are considered 'chokers?'

Ah, this debate doesn't matter anyway, 'cause the NL stinks. Of the top 12 temas in baseball this year, I think 3 at most came from the NL.

Before all the Cardinal fans book a trip to Detroit I'd like to remind them of how poor a road team the Cardinals have been. If Carpenter doesn't get the job done tonight which is a very strong possibility, they are in big trouble. Even if the Mets have to use 7 or 8 pitchers in game 7, the Cardinals lineup is not strong enough to fully exploit it. As for feeling confident about Suppan on the road, now that's comical. Mets in 7 and I actually despise them, they're just a better team.

Shawn Green failed to make many key plays in the outfield when he was with the Dodgers. It looks as though he doesn't want to break a sweat by running too hard to catch the ball. Not known for coming through in clutch situations.

C'mon guys let's all agree the Cardinals are getting a little lucky here. The Cardinals are a decent team, that had some injuries. That did sneak into the playoffs. Meanwhile the Mets lost 3 starting pitchers this year 2 right before the playoffs. If Carpenter and Weaver were out of your rotation and Hernandez and Pedro were healthy the Mets would have won by a wide Margin. I'm not knocking the Cardinals they've played well but they just happen to be peaking just as the Mets injuries hit.

The Mets defense is not the main concern. The only "misplay" that costs us was in Gm. 2 and he was lucky to even get a play on a ball by Speizio that looked gone. Remember the perfect throw to Valentin who then threw it to LoDuca to get that unbelieveable DP? The rest were bad but Trachsel was an absolute goat in Gm. 3 and the Cards were ahead on the Miles triple. So Luft, how is Green's defense hurting the Mets when they're already down?

My, My, My, how we have fallen from grace once we left Toronto.

Hey Garcia, you'll get nothing in 6...and like it.

Well he got a couple of hits tonight. But I will say a lot of balls hit to him in St Louis seemed to roll to the wall. Where did his power go?

You've got to be kidding me...did I just see some fool say the Yankees are a better team than the Tigers? God my eyes hurt now from this stupidity...and the debate about the cards and mets is pretty much pointless, but I think the Cards would make for a much more interesting and competitive series and prevent a Tigers sweep by, you know, doing something the Yankees couldn't....hitting the ball.

i have no problems with this whole article, except one. Your first example shows a guy who prevented a homerun being punished because it ended up a triple! Yeah it would have been better if he caught it and maybe most people would have. But at least it didn't go over the fence.