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Talk baseball all season long with SI.com's Jacob Luft in Baseball Chatter, a journal for hot topic debates, Sabermetric ramblings and reader-driven discussions.
12/06/2006 04:19:00 PM

Boston digs deep

Red Sox fans will love J.D. Drew ... when he's in the lineup.
Red Sox fans will love J.D. Drew ... when he's in the lineup.
Robert Beck/SI
Boston's signing of J.D. Drew to a five-year, $70 million deal is sure to drive a splinter between his longtime detractors, of which there are many, and statheads who can't help but love a hitter with good rate stats. Even the most ardent Drew-haters have to admit that a career batting line of .286-.393-.512 looks pretty good behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez in a lineup.

Julio Lugo also joins the Red Sox at a hefty rate of four years, $36 million. I've always seen Lugo as a poor man's Edgar Renteria; he produces close to the same numbers as Renteria while making a lot less money. Now he's making Renteria money, so your verdict on this deal depends on you much you like ... Renteria.

I don't have a problem with either signing. If the plan was for the Red Sox to replace Ramirez with Drew, then that would have been a tough sell. But with both Drew and Ramirez in the fold, the Red Sox suddenly are proud owners of a legitimate American League outfield. Wily Mo Pena is better off as a fourth outfielder; he can spell Ramirez in left field while avoiding the difficult right field at Fenway Park altogether.

If nothing else, the Red Sox should be lauded for embracing the identity of a large-market superpower. Last year, they approached the Hot Stove season as if they were Bill Clinton-era democrats, trying to account for every penny spent with a corresponding move. It was painful watching the Red Sox move heaven and earth to acquire such mediocre talents as Coco Crisp and Wily Mo Pena while allowing the blue-chip talents to go elsewhere. They were like Johnny Chan showing up at the Taj with a short stack. It was unbecoming.

They let Johnny Damon walk away to the Yankees because they drew the line in the sand at $40 million based on The Pedro Principle of not committing longterm dollars to aging players. Well, Drew will be 31 on Opening Day, as will Lugo. (Damon will be 33 on Opening Day 2007 with three years left on his four-year, $52 million.) I bring this up not to rub salt in any old wounds but to emphasize something that may be lost on any Red Sox fans with rose-colored glasses: Damon is a better player than Drew. At least he was last year and will be again the next couple of seasons.

It is only through this prism -- what might have been -- that I can find a bone to pick with the Drew signing. In and of itself, it's a wise investment for a team that needs help in a lot of places. I've watched Drew play his entire career, dating to when he was in college at Florida State. He is what he is -- a fabulous talent who gets hurt a lot.

It's hard for players like Drew to get a fair shake. Rate stats players are difficult to appreciate because it's hard to discern with the naked eye how one or two extra walks per week helps the team's run production. Hee Seop Choi is a good example of this syndrome. You have to look at the numbers to appreciate what they bring to the table.

Do the Drew and Lugo signings make the Red Sox a better team? Absolutely. At the same time, I think it's fair to ask if the Sox would be just as good if they had simply kept Damon and Renteria. Toward that end, I asked Nate Silver from Baseball Prospectus if he could provide the outlooks (the devastatingly accurate PECOTAs) for all four of these players for the next four seasons and he graciously came through. (Pre-order your copy of Baseball Prospectus 2007 here.) Check it out:

(NOTE: VORP is Value Over Replacement Player; WARP is Wins Above Replacement Player)

J.D. Drew
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 20.9, 4.7
2008, 14.8, 4.1
2009, 11.3, 3.3
2010, 9.2, 2.3

Johnny Damon
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 33.6, 5.6
2008, 24.4, 4.6
2009, 23.9, 4.2
2010, 17.8, 3.3

Julio Lugo
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 16.5, 4.7
2008, 16.6, 4.1
2009, 10.8, 3.1
2010, 10.7, 2.6

Edgar Renteria
Year, VORP, WARP
2007, 26.4, 4.3
2008, 19, 3.6
2009, 14.6, 2.8
2010, 11.4, 2.3
posted by JL | View comments |  

Comments:

Posted: 4:41 PM, December 06, 2006   by Peter Risbergs
Damon for Drew is supid. So is Hanley Ramirez for Lugo and Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena. Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater was great as was Bagwell for Larry Anderson.
Posted: 4:50 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
I don't quite understand one component of WARP and VORP. How can Lugo's value consistently be less than Renteria's over the four year time period; however, Lugo's WARP rises above Renteria at the end? Shouldn't value and wins coincide?
Posted: 5:00 PM, December 06, 2006   by John Mac
Have many of the "pundits" given any consideration to the possibility that Boston signed Drew to appease Scott Boras before the nitty gritty of the Matsuzaka negotiations? Is it possible ol' Scotty asked Theo to take on Drew (whom nobody seemed to be very interested in at $70 mil) to get a bit of a discount on the Sox' TRUE prize free agent? I have heard JD is a clubhouse cancer and he's obviously very injury prone. I can't think that just the offensive stats of a decent right fielder were the only factor in this signing.
Good question. WARP is different in that it takes defense into account, whereas VORP does not.
Posted: 5:27 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
I agree with your assessment for the most part, JL. I think the Sawx problem last year (and the year before, and the year before that, etc.) was that they were trying to be the "anti-Yankees", when they are obviously the closest thing to the Yankees in all of baseball. They failed to embrace their identity and ended up with subpar performances from players with second or third-tier talent. This year, they are trying to make up for it by "over-pricing" the market. Let's face it. The Red Sox are only one of maybe two or three teams that have the monetary muscle to compensate for signings that don't live up to expectations and still win. They need to exploit that advantage like the Yankees always do, and they are doing that this year. Finally the Sawx are showing off their financial clout. Are the Sawx overpaying for Drew and Lugo to make up for losing Damon and (trading) Renteria? Probably. But so what! They can afford it. And if they can get the pitchers that want, they will become the favorites to win it all next year.
It should be pointed out that PECOTA is admittedly low on J.D. Drew because of his injury history, most of which can be attributed to bad luck, especially the broken hand and wrist. PECOTA looks at an injury, whether it is a chronic knee injury or a broken hand, the same way, so if J.D. invests wisely in lucky pennies and rabbit's feet, the deal may work out well for the Red Sox after all.
Posted: 5:37 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
to be fair, in 2006 j.d. drew had 7.25 runs created per game, where damon had only 6.19. also, drew had an OPS+ of 133 (park adjusted) where damon had only a 120. finally, drew had an EqA of .300 where Damon was at only .281 (granted, that doesn't taked into account defense). I would argue that Drew is the better offensive player, has a better arm than Damon and is younger. I'll take Drew.
Posted: 5:42 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
I'm not so sure the VORP and WARP stats wold project the way they do if Renteria had stayed in Boston. We're talking about a gold glover who suddenly committed 30 errors, a consistent hitter who preformed below his career averages and went through some pitiful slumps. Possibly even more than New York, it takes a special kind of player to thrive in Boston, and, as LaRussa said from the get-go, Renteria is not that kind of player.

Damon is, which is why I'll never understand why the Sox let Damon go, or even why Damon went. On-field performance aside, Damon and the Sox were a money-making machine (this is a business, after all), and I'm sure both sides have lost money by walking away from each other.
1. Coco Crisp, CF
2. Julio Lugo, SS
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Manny Ramirez, LF
5. JD Drew, RF
6. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
7. Mike Lowell, 3B
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Dustin Peioria, 2B

Now, I'd say that's a pretty darn good lineup, because Crisp's and Varitek's poor seasons were anomalies, and Kevin Youkilis and JD Drew are on base machines. Add that to a revamped bullpen and an improved starting rotation, and you have a legitimate contender for 2007
Posted: 5:59 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
I disagree that Damon's a better player than Drew. When 100% healthy, I'd rather have Drew than Damon, since he has better power, a better arm, and draws a lot more walks.
That said, Damon is willing to play hurt, which Drew won't do.
As for the Lugo signing, I think it's a good move. Better yet for Boston, he's already an AL player. Of course after the Sox fans run him out of town, when Renteria's deal runs out, can they send Lugo south to Atlanta and pay $12 million to do so?
Posted: 5:59 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
I know I'm the only one here who's seen J.D. play everyday for the last few years, so I have some advice to the Sox pundits who are calling for the 07 series. As a Dodgers fan I would like to say thank you. It's painful to watch the man play. Let me know after the all star break if you've seen his pants get dirty.
Posted: 6:19 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Time and time again, it's been proven that statistical attributes have no bearing when playing in such places like Boston and New York. It's not VORP or PECOTA or what-not ... it's whether the player can adjust to playing under the microscope and overwhelming expectations of large cities. JD Drew has played his entire career for fan bases marked with indifference (LA), politeness (St. Louis), or a combination of both (Atlanta). When healthy, he has shown great ability and the potential to put up big numbers ... but how he adapts to Boston is the biggest variable to consider.
Posted: 6:24 PM, December 06, 2006   by Brandon Pankey
As a long time Dodgers fan let me be the first to say, good riddance to JD Drew. He's a stat monger, but put him in a tight spot late in a game and he's content to take a walk or strikeout looking rather than swing at a borderline pitch. That's not what I want out of a guy who gets paid $11 million per year. (The contract he opted out of. The Sox will pay him even more.) The guy showed us no heart. It's ridiculous to think that he can even be close to what Johnny Damon meant to the Red Sox. Throw all the ratios out the door. If I were going to game seven of the World Series, or needed someone to lead my clubhouse, there is no doubt I would rather have Damon on the roster.
ummm...how was Damon better than Drew last season? baseball prospectus has Drew at a Warp1 of 7.5, Damon at 5.0...
Posted: 6:34 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Johnny Damon is not a better player than J.D. Drew. Damon is more durable, yes, but Drew is the better player. More power, better OBP, and he actually has a throwing arm.

Playing hurt is also overrated to some degree. When taken to the extreme, an injured player may suck so bad that he *should* be sitting because a bench player would perform better.
Posted: 7:36 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Dodger fans can all agree. Drew has some impressive stats, potential, etc. but nobody in recent memory has been more frustrating to watch. He's the kind of guy who will more than likely put up decent numbers, but at the end of the year you'll be wondering why the Sox didn't come out on top. He has no heart, and that kind of apathy has to be contagious.
Posted: 7:39 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
How can Johnny Damon be that much more valuable than Drew unless they're guaranteeing injury? Drew is a better hitter, a great fielder and younger. By the time 2008 rolls around, the Yanks had better hope the DH spot is free because anything hit deep to CF will become and inside-the-park HR. Even David Ortiz will be able to touch 'em all before Damon will be able to firstly run it down and secondly, throw the ball to Jeter in deep centre.
There area a few things I would like to touch upon. Why are we comparing JD Drew and Damon? They are different types of players and people. I would definently take both of them, money aside. Sure the Red Sox couldve bought Damon last year but its a different time, and they dont need a CF anymore. Drew is a clear upgrade to Trot Nixon (although everyone liked him), and thats who I think we should be comparing him to. While Coco wasnt as good last year as many people thought he wouldve been, cut him some slack he came out of his freak injury in the middle of the season and never quite picked it up. He is still outstanding defensively and was underrated offensively.

The comparisons to Renteria were very dumb in this article. While Edgar mightve been good in ATL or StLouis, he was terrible in Boston, and if the Red Sox didnt get rid of him they would be hammered upon continuously. His career numbers away from Boston are incredible, while his numbers in Boston were bad. Lugo, while not that great in a crowded LA infield, was very good with Tampa Bay (one of their few highlights), for whom he played most of his career.
Posted: 8:00 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
I love it. The Boston Red Sox are turning into the 1980's Yankees..without the firing of pitching coaches and managers..yet. 70 million dollars for JD Drew? 40 million dollars for Julio Lugo? 50 million dollars to TALK to Matsuzaka? I haven't seen spending this bad since George Steinbrenner was handing out fat contracts to stiffs like Ed Whitson, Steve Kemp and Dave LaPoint. I hope the Sox do trade Manny, leaving Big Papi to see a steady diet of walks all year long since his "protection" Drew will probably be on the DL nursing an ingrown toenail all season.
Posted: 8:02 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Vorp is an offensive stat only. So your analysis is only half done.
I believe Renteria was a defensive diaster at Fenway and one of the worst defensive SS around. Damon was hardly know for his defensive, I think they call him spaghetti arm.
Posted: 8:47 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Time will tell on these signings but the question is this. Money aside do these two players make the Red Sox better? Answer is yes. Comparing them to the 80's Yankees is just plain wishful thinking on the part of the Yankees fan who posted that.
Posted: 8:48 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Going back to the guy who posted the lineup, I think we'll see lugo at the top and crisp at the bottom. Coco has always performed better at the bottom of the lineup. I think Youkilis will be the number two hitter. He has almost the perfect profile for a 2 hitter. Great OBP, great pitch selection, some power. His only minus for that spot is his lack of speed, making him potentially prone to hitting into double plays. So it would look like this if nothing changes between now and opening day (But at the rate their going I'm thinking something is going to change between now and opening day.
1. Lugo
2. Youkilis
3. Ortiz
4. Ramirez
5. Drew
6. Lowell
7. Varitek
8. Pedroia
9. Crisp

I put Pedroia in the eight spot because that is where the least amount of pressure is. It will be nice to have some speed at the bottom of the lineup to turn the corner.
Posted: 8:48 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
.....some players light up a team with their presence....others drag it down just by being in the dugout....red sox fans will sour on drew well before the all star break......
Posted: 8:58 PM, December 06, 2006   by walkoffblast
It is worth noting that if, as so many critics predict, Drew does have issues with injuries the Sox get lower the value of the 5th year defering a large part of the salary.
Posted: 9:08 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
I hope Drew doesn't turn into another Wade Boggs. Never clutch, just a stats hound with the personality of a doorknob.
Posted: 9:11 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Pena's a mediocre talent? Come on now! He's pretty young. The Drew deal and the Lugo deal are among the worst of the offseason in my opinion.
Posted: 9:32 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Wade Boggs a "doorknob"? Are you talking about the Wade Boggs who admitted to 12 adulterous affairs, scratched the Hebrew word "chai" (life) in the batter's box even though he isn't Jewish, and claimed that he avoided a knife-wielding assailant by "willing" himself invisible? Boggs was a colorful character and a hell of a hitter. I sure hope Drew is a Boggs (on the field, that is).
Posted: 9:38 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
what a disaster.
Posted: 9:44 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Wow...seems to be a lot of scared Yankee fans here today!! Look at this rotation: Game 1:Schilling 2.Matsuzaka 3.Clemens
4.Papelbon 5.Beckett....Yup thats right, check out that 5 man powerhouse rotation!!! You can even take out Roger if you want and put in Yankee-killer Wakefield! Would any Yankee pitcher even crack that rotation?!!?
Now, add Drew and Lugo(CLEAR upgrades over Trot and Gonzalez) to an already powerful offense and you can see why the Spankee fans are scared. Enjoy Damon, he really looked good in that Detroit series this year!
Posted: 9:47 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Lugo is said to be an incredibily positive presense in the dugout--watch him, Manny, and Big Papi doing their handshakes and hugs this season....it'll be awesome. I'm sure Drew will follow Variteck's lead and be a silent leader.
Posted: 9:57 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Big Sox fan and I hate these two moves. Lugo is no upgrade to Gonzalez at short and Drew is a soft version of Nixon. We overpaid for two marginal players because Theo screwed up last year. If we EVER trade Manny, Ortiz will walk 250 times and never see a good pitch. Any Matsuzaka sigthings? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Posted: 10:12 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Drew is an outstanding five tool player. I heard his situation compared to Paul O'Neil--a player considered soft and injury prone, who then went to a big market team and absolutely thrived and became a better player. I think we may see the same from Drew. Also, he has never been in a lineup with this kind of talent and depth.
Coco Crisp is mediocre? = O Shows how much you know about baseball, the guy was injured all year. Check out his OPS when he was with the Indians, that's exactly the type of guy the Bosox need at leadoff or at #2. I don't think JD Drew is worth that type of money and neither is Lugo. They were too impatient with Renteria (admitedly Edgar should not have blamed the infield for his defensive troubles) and likely with Crisp!
Posted: 10:25 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
On average, J. D. Drew misses about 25% of his games, so what you really get for your money is 75% of his stats and 25% of his backup's stats. J.D.'s career numbers are .286/.393/.512/.905. If his caddy is Wily Mo Pena (.261/.351/.480/.795), then the RF position produces for 162 games .279/.382/.504/.886. That is not horrible, but is it $14 million worth? Compare the similarly paid Vladimir Guerrero (and doesn't his contract look like a bargain now?): .325/.390/.583/.973.

J.D. has hit over 20 HRs in a season exactly twice. J.D. over 20 doubles in a season? Exactly twice. Overpaid.

I like the Sox batting order better with Lugo first and Drew second - J.D.'s high OBP might pay off in front of Ortiz and ManRam. Hope that Lowell rediscovers a stroke and can hit 5 - J.D. isn't a classic five. Bat Coco 9th as a wraparound to leadoff.
Posted: 11:22 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
J.D. Drew is a jerk, but not the loveable kind of jerk the Redsox are used to. $70M seems like a lot of money for a second tier outfielder whom no one can stand and who can't play more than 120 games a year.
Posted: 11:28 PM, December 06, 2006   by Anonymous
Smart move by the Dodgers letting Drew option out of his contract. Now he'll be Red Sox headache.
As a Dodger fan, I could not stand watching Drew go up to bat with men in scoring position, because most often than not, he either struck out or was caught looking.
Watching Damon when he was in an Oakland uniform, you knew he was special and fun to watch. JD is heartless and no Johnny Damon. Big error on Sox part, and good job by Dodgers front office. LET'S GO BUM'S!!!!!
Posted: 12:08 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
For me the optimum word is action. At least the Sox did something risky this year. Too many times last season I wondered why I was paying so much to see so little. I look at this line up and see lots of action, balls in play, hit an-run, and doubles every other batter. I also see an intact farm system that is only getting better.

Last year we had basically 2.5 chair holders, hitters who make you stay in your seat to watch them, David, Manny, and semi-Yuk. This year I see 5 chair holders; David, Manny, a maturing Yuk, JD, and Julio. Tek, Coco, Mike, and Dustin are frig type hitters, hitters you typically don’t mind making a quick trip to the frig while their up, although that depends on the distance to the frig.
Posted: 12:21 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
LA didn't "let" Drew opt out of his contract. He opted out because his blood sucking Agent (Boros) told him he could get more money if he did.

And, it came as a surprise to LA. They are furious with Drew and Boros because he screwed up their plans for 2007 by walking.

Not only is Drew a cancer in the clubhouse and heartless on the field, he has no morals (which is interesting considering that he pretends to be uber religous).

Have fun with the bumb!
Posted: 12:22 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
I am a huge Yankee fan and am not worried at all. The only reason we haven't done much this offseason is because we didn't have hardly much to address. As far as the Red Sox moves they will be a total bust.
Boston has a lock on second place again - but they're always happy enough with that regardless of the cost.
Posted: 1:36 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Unbelieveably happy to see JD leave my Dodgers. Boston can now enjoy those clutch moments of watching him strike out looking with men in scoring position when the game is on the line. His yearly stats will be good, but not when you need him. He is NO silent leader as mentioned, but a flat unemotional player who seems to be just going through the motions. Put all your stats aside Boston fans, he will bring down those around him... Too bad, because like all of you, I hate the yanks too!!! Oh....and please enjoy watching Lugo think he is a power hitter. He must have had a couple dozen pop outs 15 feet short the track as a Dodger. (in his short time with him, very looping swing) His numbers as a Dodger were very poor. They used him as a utility player because he couldn't win a position from Betemit, Furcal, Ethier etc.. You have the most expensive utility guy in history...
Posted: 1:45 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
I have to think about what Drew and Lugo bring to the Sox beofre I give a fair prediction, but I will say this much: Trot Nixon -- as injury-prone as he has been the last few seasons -- will be missed greatly. While we in the public never know exactly what goes on behind the scenes, from our perspective Trot was a great clubhouse presence and respected team leader. And, contrary to what most people seem to believe about J.D. Drew, Trot was most definitely a clutch hitter (3-0 count near-HR in G4 of '04 W.S., game-winning HR against Oak in '03, game-winning HR against Yankees in Pedro-Clemens duel, and many others). Given J.D. Drew's history of injuries, one must question the logic of replacing one fragile right fielder with another fragiloe right fielder. If the signing of Drew does indeed mark the end of Trot's stay in Boston (and it almost has to), he will be missed greatly.
Posted: 2:22 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Lugo 36 million+ Drew 70million+ Matsuzaka (51+xxx). Boston Yankees?
Posted: 5:30 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
It hurt to see JD (Johnny Damon) leave the Sox. It feels better to have JD (JD Drew) in the sox lineup. He has more power and has a much stronger arm. Lugo has always played good for the teams he's played for, Renteria was lost in Boston. He was not meant to be a Sox favorite. Good job Theo.
Posted: 8:17 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
The minute the Boston fans start to get on Drew he will fold like a scared little girl!
Posted: 8:23 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
JL's take on these signings is pretty typical...being a blue jays fan, every year it's the same thing - the jays overpay for everyone & each deal is horrible. the sawx/yanks/cubs et al can spend spend spend & it's all good. please. drew for $70M? c'mon...he's a GOOD (actually, that might be unworthy praise - perhaps DECENT is a better adjective) player, getting SUPERSTAR money.

if drew is worth that, how much more will wells (a far better player, & 3 years younger) command on the open market? like most jays fans, i'm preparing myself for him to be traded, or to lose him next year. such is the life...
Posted: 8:41 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Boston sucks plan and simple. they are an oxymoron ran team, and this is just another reason they are "wanna be Yankees." They pick up a guy who at best is playing an average of 100 games in a season. A famous Yankee blunder done by Red Sox nation? Lets keep working on the Red Sox here, there starting rotation- Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett,Tim Wakefield,papelbohn, and the Japanesse name i wouldnt touch with a stick. This maybe the what if rotaton bigger than the yanks. Beckett is overrated he will win while posting an ERA of 5.00, Schillings last year the only legite starter. Wakefield well he is a knuckleballer a dieing breed of everlasting picthers.Papelbhon , looked awfully hittable when you seem him more often, and the waste of stupid cash hideki irabu anyone. yeh history repeat itself heavily. so to the growing evil empire good luck your Dl will be full of J.D. Drew ailments and your rotation will be a what if after May when each pitcher gets to see a team twice.
Posted: 9:07 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Take a look at Lugo's stats and Renteria's stats for their career. After doing that, tell me how there is any remote comparison between the two players. Moreover, didn't they sign Gonzalez last year to replace Renteria because they wanted to improve the infield defense? Why didn't they re-sign Gonzalez if that is their objective? Look at Lugo's numbers at SS throughout his career - he is a butcher.
Posted: 9:13 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
I've hated JD Drew ever since he pulled the "you're not worthy" deal with the Phillies after they drafted him. I have always laughed from afar at his injuries and lack of production. Being a Red Sox fan, I'm no longer laughing.

Given the choice between Drew and Trot Nixon, I would have kept Nixon. They are both fragile, but Trot is not as has the nuts to play somewhat injured, while Drew folds the tent at the first muscle tenderness. Drew has never been available to play a full season in his 9 years in the bigs. $70 million is a lot to pay for someone who doesn't show up to work everyday.

I'd take Lugo over Renteria anyday, be cause he doesn't have the make up to play on a big market club. As for Drew over Damon, that's a no-brainer... Damon all the way.

That being said, Damon is going to break down before his deal is done (a la Pedro). At least Drew may still be a servicable major leaguer when his deal is up, Damon will be retired before his ends.
Posted: 9:22 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
What you don't take into account is Renteria couldn't handle the pressure in Boston....He couldn't buy a hit in the World Series against Boston.....Vorp and Warp doesn't really account for much if the player can't handle pressure. I have to agree with the Drew/Damon arguement...did the sox not let Nixon go because he's injury-prone? Besides Damon proved his value time after time in high-pressure situations. Although I don't hate the Drew deal...I think the sox would be in much better shape with Damon....
Posted: 9:44 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
I like these moves, of course I would have liked Damon to stay but... The Yanks will never win again with the "CURSE OF A_ROD"
Talk about a guy with all the talent but never a winner, thank God the sox did not get him.
Posted: 10:04 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
The Red Sox had holes to fill. They needed a reliable leadoff man, a offensivve shortstop, a five-hitter, and a good defensive right fielder. Drew and Lugo fill all of these holes. There was one shortstop available, and one right fielder available. They paid market value for these players.

Bill Mueller publicly supported JD Drew that is all I need. For as bad as JD is supposed to be in the clubhouse, its convenient to leave out how great Lugo is. Especially with David Ortiz with whom he is good friends.
Posted: 10:08 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
It's easy to criticize with no numbers, but here's Drew last year:

Close and Late: .250 .397 .533 (OPS-.930)

Scoring position, 2 outs: 279 .437 .471 (OPS- .908)

While I'm sure Dodgers fans are so smart that they can see beyond actual performance, those numbers are objectively outstanding.
Posted: 10:09 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Hey Luft,

Take your calendar off the wall and in the box for today's date, take a pen and write the following: "Today, I finally wrote a clean, concise and well thought out logical collumn." Well done.
Posted: 10:20 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
I'm so sick of the jealous small market fans from around the country saying "The Red Sox spend $$ just like the Yankees!!! Whahhhh! Guess what small market people? If the Yankees were in YOUR division, you would have to spend every penny you have just to compete too!!! What choice do they have??!! The Red Sox ownership has been spearheading the idea of a salary cap ever since they took over. Do you really think they WANT to spend 150M ? And one more thing....Do you REALLY think that Steinbrenner and Red Sox ownership spend their OWN money on players!?the money does NOT come from the the owners pockets!! It comes from revenue!! HELLO! There are plenty of filthy rich owners in small markets "with no money" simply because they have no fan support. So before you curse the Yankees and Red Sox for 'buying their titles " and having "too much money to spend"..remember this, the money comes from a loyal fan base. Try showing up to games and filling your seats in your stadium every game and investing in your team like maybe ordering the team TV cable channel like the Yankee fans and the YES network and then maybe your team too can have "too much money to spend". Yankees and Red Sox sell out every game. Think about that next time you cry about your team spending no money.
Posted: 10:27 AM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Theo is spending like a drunken sailor. And he'll have the same result when he wakes up--a gigantic headache. Drew will be the biggest contributor to that pounding. He'll be available to play maybe 70% of the games and that surly, who gives a crap, countenance won't play well in the clubhouse or with the Boston fans. This deal really helped L.A. get rid of a mutt and free up some $'s and obtain a real competitor in Schmidt.
In terms of comparing the two teams, they are completely different from each other. Even with the acquisition of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the Yankees have a far superior offense than the Red Sox do. Our catcher, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, and center fielder are all better hitters. Drew and Bobby Abreu is a push. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are obviously better hitters than Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi are, so no argument.

The Red Sox do have a much stronger starting rotation than the Yankees IF Josh Beckett wakes up - which I fully expect him to do. Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Lester, and Matsuzaka is going to be tough to beat. If the Yankees are going to be able to land Andy Pettitte, they'll have solid options with C.M. Wang, Mike Mussina, and Andy. Randy Johnson and Carl Pavano are pure wild cards at this point.

In terms of bullpen, there isn't even a competition. There is a reason why the Red Sox tried frantically to sign Justin Spier and are rumored to be in the hunt for Chad Cordero among others. Mike Timlin was awful last year and Julian Tavarez ain't too pretty either. You virtually have know LHP to offset the lefties. With Papelbon out as closer, you don't have anybody who can close out games. The Yankees relief staff is by no means great, but it is much more solid. Mariano Rivera remains one of the best closers in the game. Kyle Farnsworth had his ups and downs, but had stretches of being unhittable (especially after the All Star break). Scott Proctor, although seriously overpitched, was gold last season. And Mike Myers did his usual thing of handling lefties.

In the end, it's going to be a very interesting series to watch. These two teams both pack some serious punch, and I'm sure the games will be a blast.
Posted: 12:09 PM, December 07, 2006   by nathan
July:

Epstein "we are not yankees.. we cannot afford Abreu.. we cant throw money at all our needs.. we develop prospects"

December:
Matsuzaka+Drew+Lugo = 187.1 mill + X mil
Posted: 12:10 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Close and Late: .250 .397 .533 (OPS-.930)

.250 BA with .397 On Base%? Most of the year he had either Kent or Nomar batting behind him. Pitchers weren't pitching around him, he was looking for the walk. It get's frustrating watching the supposed best hitter on your team leaving it up to someone else in the clutch. That's why guys like Big Papi and Manny get paid the big bucks, to be the man and make something happen late in the game.
Don't you love how everyone from LA is dancing in the streets to see Drew gone and most of the New Englanders are rationalizing how Drew will be great based on his #s, which is exactlly what the article said people do with Drew? Its like the comment section is just repeating what JL said in the article: those who WATCH him play, hate him. Those who LOOK at his STATS, love him...hmmmmmm
Posted: 12:43 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Why does Drew need to be a clutch hitter if he bats behind Papi and Manny? The game will be over by his at bat!
Posted: 1:25 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
These are two examples of why the red Sox and Yankees are favored to win the World Series at the beginning of each year but don't. Just ask the Braves, Cards and Dodger about Drew. I like Lugo but he isn't a difference maker in the field or in an everyday line-up. Good luck Sawks fans because in two year you're going to curse the day the team signed these two.
Posted: 1:26 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
i'm just relieved that my beloved cubbies have finally realized that they have the 3rd biggest market and are spending accordingly, if a bit reclessly (how good will soriano be in EIGHT years? derosa?). its better than watching them sit on their hands as usual.
Posted: 1:35 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Dodgers fans are mad because JD Drew snubbed them. They would take Drew back in a second, just like most teams would, maybe not for 70 million, but if they could afford it and money wasn't an object, then they would sign him in a heartbeat. And Drew doesn't replace Damon. He's replacing Nixon. Crisp was going to replace Damon, and I still think he can do one heck of a job in center, now that he's familiar with Boston and what it's like to play here. Lugo I don't quite understand, but it's not my money.
Posted: 1:47 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Yes, I'd be extremely upset as a Sox fan if JD Drew turned into a first ballot HOFer (Wade Boggs).
Posted: 1:49 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Typical Yankee fans. Everybody sucks except NY. There were no other cities on Earth before NY was built. So old, so pathetic.Hey Yankee fans, NOBODY in Red Sox Nation is heralding JD Drew as the next Albert Pujols. We know exactly what he is, thank you. All we, and management, expect from him is to be a solid #5 hitter behind the BEST 3-4 combo in baseball. If he's even at .270, 15 hrs, 70 rbis, the Yanks are in deep doo doo. Which is the reason why you all are freakin right now. Its the best barometer to gauge the Yankee fans.Whenever Yankees fans are criticising up a storm about recent Red Sox moves, they are worried. And they should be. Ortiz-Manny-Drew.... be afraid...be very afraid.
Posted: 1:53 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
since the drew signing has been beaten to death, i just thought i'd spread the good news that meche is signing with KC. toronto is (or should be) rejoicing. doesn't matter if they need pitching, you have to wonder about a guy's heart (& lower anatomy) if he'd rather pitch for KC than a team who'll admittedly be in tough against the yanks & sawx, but at least TO should compete. meche is clearly a loser who's just cashing a cheque...enjoy your 6-14 record next year, gil my boy.
Posted: 1:54 PM, December 07, 2006   by jake R.
drew had other suitors. i dont know if they were 70 mil suitors. but they were offering some serious money. thats is why he opted out of his contract despite his rep as a sickbay commando. the redsox wanted him because they have a decent backup and they have the room to take a risk that could pay off huge. as far as the question about lugo vs renteria. the obvious point here is that lugo is a true leadoff hitter, something the redsox sorely missed last season and reteria is an aging two-hole guy who couldn't deal with the relentless boston media. there is no question that neither one of these additions would really be necessary if the resox had just held on to damon to begin with. the most disturbing part of that being that they were willing to drop 50 million to keep the yankees out of the negotiating room with matsuzaka for one year but they wouldn't spend that same money to keep damon for four years. being a lifetime resox fan this is tough for me to admit, but the fact is boston has a long history of disloyalty when it comes to their roster. they get rid of people as soon as they think that they are used up. of course it's a "good move" when the constant contributor they dump ends up fizzling like mo vaughn. nobody says anything about it when the redsox treat a loyal professional like a cheap prostitute as long as he doesn't see any success. but if for some reason said individual manages to not completely fall off or god forbid thrive (clemens, damon, boggs, arroyo, etc.) suddenly people notice that the redsox front office is a cold calculating bunch of number crunchers who despite their best efforts after decades of futility managed to put a team together that brought home the hardware. and why did that happen? was it because they had the best team ops. or fielding pct. no it is because they had chemistry. of course none of that matters`because as quickly as they appeared they were gone in the name of "good business". the tragedy here is that the sox and their long hated rivals are both reaching for the same dream in different ways. the yankees with their bottomless wallet and the sox with their cold business tactics that are, "Always about the F!@$#!%> dollars" thank you joe pesci. but what neither of them can grasp is that when they were winning titles their teams had men of character that were truly devoted to the team.
Posted: 2:53 PM, December 07, 2006   by Bwebs
Beckett wasn't acquired by Epstein. Beckett was acquired by the front office while Epstein was on "hiatus". Get your facts straight before you bash Saint Theo.
Posted: 2:59 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Did anyone here happen to see what Lugo did once he was moved to LA last year. He was horrible. These moves are busts and expensive ones at that. BTW, anyone who actually thinks that Drew is a better player than Damon is kidding himself. Let's compare last season,
.285/24/80
.283/20/100
Hmmmm...
Posted: 3:00 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
With Drew, Lugo, and Pedroia a starting pitcher will have a lot of trouble getting to the sixth inning because of all the extra pitches they will be throwing getting through this lineup - they also add some desperately needed speed to a very slow lineup we put out there last year - this team with Diceman and Paps in the rotation will be tough to beat in 07
1. Most statistical analysis of "clutch" players I have seen debunks the whole idea of clutch. Anyone care to back up the assertions with some numbers? Or did all you jilted Dodger fans actually watch all 81 home games last year?

2. Are we forgetting that two of Drew's injuries were the result of being hit by pitches? Should that DL time really be held against him? In Boston, he can sit if he's hurt - I'd rather watch Wily Mo Pena hitting 550 foot homeruns than Drew gimping around right field.

3. Might Drew do better in his new role of supporting the main hitters in the lineup, compared to being the only legitimate RBI threat in an offensively challenged NL club?

4. Drew will be replacing the popular and always dirty Trot Nixon in right field. But I think the Sox fans will take wins over dirt - maybe he can wear the same pants every day (like Trot and hit hat).
Posted: 3:59 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Drew has NEVER posted back to back decent MLB seasons, they have no bullpen with no differance maker available. Becket coming from an awful year, Papelbon has never made 32 starts a year and Matsusaka has never thrown one inning at the MLB level. You tip your cap to Theo for doing something to better the team, however for all of the above to happen, some weird stars would have to align for the Fenway Faithful...
Posted: 4:08 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
you redsox fans need a clue.the yankees will beat the redsox again.drew can't do damage from the trainers room,lugo compared to jeter,don't make me laugh!dusty the 2nd baseman is a slap hitter where cano is the second coming of carew.boston bullpen-who are they?91 million for matzusaka-you yankee wanabes.yankees have advantage at c,2nd,ss,3rd,cf,rf,bullpen.redsox have advantage at lf,dh,and starting pitching.we have a push at 1b.with that being said the yankees beat sox again,"nuff said!"
Posted: 4:43 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
Anon from abt 20 posts earlier.. The Yanks fans are not trembling to see Drew.. they are rejoicing this brilliant small(oops)market move!!
Posted: 5:48 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
The Sox needed to fill a big hole in the 5 slot, needed another strong right/center fielder, a shortstop and speed on base. Drew-Lugo does a much better job filling those needs then a Damon, Renteria, Nixon combo and for less money. Don't compare the player compare how they best fit the teams needs!
Posted: 9:16 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
The Sox will still be a third place team...
Posted: 9:20 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
I have to say that I agree that the Sox should have kept Damon, but I will not judge Drew yet. I will give him a year. I do not agree with Renteria. He had to go. The first error he made if he had stayed would have brought a chorus of Boos. He could not play in Boston. Personally, I would have kept Gonzo. Watching him play Shortstop last year was like watching a master craftsman. Hopefully, the crowd will not get on Lugo when he makes some errors.
I think everyone is falling into a very easy trap making these comparisons and this argument. As has been pointed out in the comments, these are very different players with different reasons for being on the team, signed in different markets. It is very hard to just compare X and Y.

Now, you can compare the absolute value of a player against another without the context of the situation. And that is what VORP and WARP are doing. In that case, there is no clear cut winner. The trade off is pretty minimal either way.

Lets look at this differently. If the Red Sox had signed Damon to the contract he got with the Yankees (which according to Seth Mnookin in Feeding the Monster was not in Boras' plans for his client regardless), and if Renteria weren't dealt away, the lineup might look more like.

Damon, Youkilis, Ortiz, Manny, Lowell, Varitek, Renteria, Pena/Hinske/Trot, Pedroia.

In my opinion, that lineup is not as deep and a lot weaker at the 5 hole than what they would go to bat with as it is now.

Lugo, Youkilis, Ortiz, Manny, Drew, Lowell, Varitek, Crisp, Pedroia.

And, you have a better OF defense and a slightly better IF defense.

At the end of the day, it will come down to one thing, can Drew stay healthy. If so, I think the move pays out in spades. I think given the types of injuries Drew has had, the Red Sox felt that risk acceptable.

Tim
Red Sox Times
Posted: 10:53 PM, December 07, 2006   by Anonymous
A third place team? Must be another illiterate Yinkle fan! : )
Posted: 11:21 AM, December 08, 2006   by Anonymous
Why do Red Sox fans try to sell Drew as a better fit than Damon, and why do Yankees fans keep hoping Drew stays on course for injury. Let's be honest, Red Sox with Damon was magic and excitement, and for all of those fans who want to hate, you should let it go already. Damon left, but he still was a great Red Sox. Now, I'm not a Sox fan, but I do want to see them assemble the best team they can. I want all of the teams to get better. I want to be entertained and see powerhouse matchups. I like watching games where your team's opponent is fierce. That's what Sports are all about. Julio Lugo is underrated, and I think he is a good fit in Boston. I think Drew is overrated, but he is a improvement over Nixon.
Posted: 1:01 PM, December 08, 2006   by Anonymous
The Red Sox absolutely made the correct decision in letting Damon go last year. He is an aging centerfielder with no arm and by the end of the contract that he signed with the Yankees, they will either have to use him as a DH or give up 40 extra runs a year. It was also the right decision to jettison Renteria to Atlanta...the guy just couldn't cut it in Boston. But all of that being said, the Drew and Lugo signings make no sense to me. Drew does have the potential to be a great player, but injury-plaqued tantalizers usually don't become solid dependable players at age 32. And Lugo? He's Renteria-esque with a little more speed on the basepaths. As far as I'm concerned, the Red Sox would have been much better off resigning Gonzalez at shortstop (his defense was phenomenal last year) and using all of the money that they seem so intent on throwing around to try to lure Alfonso Soriano to Boston. He is a solid, consistent and versatile player who would have been worth every penny. I'm not saying Soriano was necessarily interested in coming to Boston but why did the Red Sox make little to no effort to pursue him? As the Lugo and Drew signings have shown us, they certainly are willing to spend the big bucks this offseason... Confounding...
Posted: 3:51 PM, December 08, 2006   by Anonymous
Let's start at the top and count how many spelling and grammatical errors were made in this post. Typical Yankee fan.

Boston sucks plan and simple. they are an oxymoron ran team, and this is just another reason they are "wanna be Yankees." They pick up a guy who at best is playing an average of 100 games in a season. A famous Yankee blunder done by Red Sox nation? Lets keep working on the Red Sox here, there starting rotation- Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett,Tim Wakefield,papelbohn, and the Japanesse name i wouldnt touch with a stick. This maybe the what if rotaton bigger than the yanks. Beckett is overrated he will win while posting an ERA of 5.00, Schillings last year the only legite starter. Wakefield well he is a knuckleballer a dieing breed of everlasting picthers.Papelbhon , looked awfully hittable when you seem him more often, and the waste of stupid cash hideki irabu anyone. yeh history repeat itself heavily. so to the growing evil empire good luck your Dl will be full of J.D. Drew ailments and your rotation will be a what if after May when each pitcher gets to see a team twice.
Posted: 5:11 PM, December 08, 2006   by Anonymous
I'm a sox fan and I gotta say seeing them spend so much money makes me sick. I thought Theo was going to be about saving money and in the past the management had told us there was a limit to the spending. They're becoming too much like the yankees.
Posted: 4:57 PM, December 09, 2006   by Anonymous
well, red sox fans seem to know that a-rod can't handle pressure, while producing stellar regular season numbers (120+ RBI in an "off-year"). Seems like Drew might be lesser version of A-Rod (a lot lesser). Where did the idea that Clemens is on the SOx come from. Obviously Pettitte, Mussina, and 19 - winner Wang are worse than Beckett (5.00 ERA). Also, Wakefield is a Yankee killer in that he make yanks fans die from happiness. Anyone else recall the 2003 ALCS with Aaron Boone. Real Yankee-killer.

Red Sox lineup:
1. Lugo
2. Youkilis
3. Ortiz
4. Ramirez
5. Drew
6. Lowell
7. Varitek
8. Pedroia
9. Crisp

Yankee Lineup:
1. Damon
2. Jeter
3. Abreu
4. Rodriguez
5. Giambi
6. Matsui
7. Posada
8. Cano
9. Phillips/Phelps/Hillenbrand?
Jeter definitely hit better than Lugo last year, Youkilis does have solid a lead over Phillips or Phelps,, Ortiz is a better version of Giambi (power) although Giambi, somehow, is better fielder, Ramirez is much better than Matsui although he could be gone and replaced with Pena who isn't very close to Matsui, Abreu, hands-down is better than Drew, Rodriguez hits much better than Lowell, outside of just doubles, and could return to his gold glove defense, Posada's defense has improved while V-tek has declined and I'd have to give the edge to Posada in offense, Pedroia won't come close to Cano's level, and Damon's stats were much better that Crisp's projected over a full season and Crisp isn't that great of a center fielder either. 6 to 3, Yankees win!

Red Sox pitching:
1. Schilling
2. Beckett
3. Wakefield
4. Matsuzaka
5. Papelbon

Yankee pitching:
1. Mussina
2. Pettitte
3. Wang
4. Igawa
5. Johnson

Schilling and Moose had very comparable stats and I would bet that Moose might have come out on top without an injury, Pettitte should definitely be better than Beckett who is ove based on his win total. despite an ERA of 5.00, Wakefield's got nothing on Wang who outperformed him in nearly everything, Matsuzaka and Igawa are both unproven talents although Matsuzaka will probably be quite a bit better, Johnson if healthy could be decent, if not, Papelbon wins. As backups, Sox don't have much, Gabbard? Taveraz? while Yanks got prospects Hughes, Sanchez and decent starters, Karstens and Rasner. 3-2-1 Yankees!

Sox pen:
1. r u kidding? Everyone stinks!

Yankees:
1. Proctor and Rivera

need I say more?
Posted: 10:52 AM, December 29, 2006   by Anonymous
The notion that the sox made a mistake in trading Renteria- Stop with this. Renteria would never perform in Boston, the sox made a huge mistake in signing Renteria and not resigning Cabrera-who they could have kept for a fraction of what they signed Edgar and now Lugo for. So stop with this notion that Renteria was good or would have been had he stayed in Boston-the sox have been losted at short ever since they let Orlando's underrated bat and gold glove leave because they wanted a players who walked a few times more.
Posted: 7:18 PM, December 31, 2006   by Anonymous
Yankee fans please! Pitching wins championships! Remeber Clemens when he was only 35 and Pettite when he was 27. Wow Glory days! Now your just hanging on to the past, bringing Pettite back. Well that's good he's like 36 now, junk even in the NL. Clemens, he's going to beantown. Why? Well like my friend Dan Duqette can attest, Roger loves $$$$$$. What a better money moaking scheme then pitch for the Sox once again(pay dirt!. Sorry Yanks with your 200 million dollar payroll your pitching staff sucks! Chin Ming Wang, wow, what a joke we should call he De Rek Lowe. Sox in 07'.
Posted: 8:10 PM, December 31, 2006   by Anonymous
okay im just going to be honest as a dodger fan.. watching drew everything single game he played.. im not going to lie and say he sucks because he doesnt.. he has so much talent its unbelievable but what i do wish i could lie about is that he actully cared. drew is a fluke. this guy has so much freakin potential but it just doesnt matter for him he has no heart or any emotion for the game.. and thats a shame. drew will not survive in boston i give him two seasons he couldnt handle la he didnt like the hassels that came with being a star now in boston he might not be the star but hes still a player.. and he is going to crack under all that pressure from the media.. sure drew had 100 rbis but the only reason he got to that number is because he was cared for like a baby by the dodgers are the redsox going to take care of him like we did i dont know maybe.. probably not cuz its the al east. i wish drew good luck on both his performance on the field and good luck with the being a player in boston.
Posted: 9:38 AM, February 07, 2007   by Anonymous
Your evaluation sounds right except that I believe that Drew is a replacement for Trot Nixon - that doesn't seem to be a bad exchange. Obviously, letting Hanley Ramirez go was a big mistake.
Posted: 9:18 PM, February 07, 2007   by Anonymous
you just love your Red Sox don't you. Im sure JD Drew's illustrious career what with all of 1 100-RBI season is going to help out. Lets just hope he doesn't stub his toe or get a scratch on his arm. Anyone with a brain in their head can see that Epstein is driving this team right into the dumpster.
Posted: 5:48 PM, May 02, 2007   by Anonymous
This dumpster is ahead of the Spankees by 5 1/2 games, might just have the best pitching rotation in the bigs, and has one J.D.Drew in the lineup which we can't say for Johnny Paycheck (back). Wake up.
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