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11/15/2006 12:02:00 PM

Home-Court Rankings

spurs
Spurs fans make it tough on opponents.
Darren Carroll/SI

Last season in the Western Conference, the teams with the eight best home records made the playoffs. Of the East teams, seven of the top eight home marks made the playoffs (sorry, Orlando, you stunk on the road). The importance of taking care of your home court obviously is key to reaching the postseason.

So how do the 30 teams rank in terms of home-court advantage? Here's a highly subjective, loosely statistical, mostly all-over-the-map list. The percentage in parenthesis is each team's home success rate in the past five seasons (or less for the relocated Hornets and expansion Bobcats). Feel free to let me know if you agree or disagree:

1. San Antonio (82.9 percent) -- Perennial title contenders. Great fan support. Only big-league team in town. But not invincible, as the Game 7 loss to Dallas last season will attest.

2. Dallas (79) -- Mark Cuban has turned up the volume in Big D, as the Mavs played to an NBA-best 104.8 percent capacity last year. Of course, that didn't help with the NBA title on the line last June.

3. Detroit (76.1) -- Big Ben's departure makes The Palace less intimidating. Still, the long trip out to Auburn Hills is a death march for most visitors. And fans like to get, ahem, "involved" with the game. Just ask the Pacers.

4. Miami (66.3) -- Funny how the arrival of Shaq made the Heat a much tougher home team (66-16 last two years). And don't underestimate the impact all those White Hot Heat fans can make. But a 42-point loss to Chicago in the home opener? Sheesh!

5. L.A. Lakers (72.2) -- Call it the Celebrity Intimidation Factor, which obviously is much higher in L.A. than New York. The Laker Girls add another distraction.

6. Sacramento (79) -- The Kings have shown a bit of slippage at home the past two seasons, but remain formidable (3-0 this season). Now that voters have rejected the arena tax, though, will Sac-town lose its team?

7. Minnesota (68.7) -- Despite the T'Wolves' struggles, no team had more disparity between its home and road victory totals last season. The club has not had a losing home record since KG's rookie season.

8. Phoenix (64.8) -- Like the Heat, the Suns became a lot tougher at home (62-20 last two years) when Steve Nash moved from Dallas. But playing at 93.6 percent capacity last season, Suns fans have room to improve.

9. Cleveland (57) -- Ignore the pre-LeBron days when picking up a win in Cleveland was easy. The Cavs averaged 19,327 fans last season, second-best in team history.

10. Utah (59.5) -- Salt Lake City is not the easiest travel destination, and it's not exactly brimming with post-game nightlife (with downtown's Port O' Call the exception). Jazz fans finally seem to be getting over the post-Mailman/Stockton blues.

11. Denver (58) -- Having a hard time breathing? Must be the mile-high altitude, which gives the Nuggets a unique advantage. So does have Carmelo Anthony; Denver is 86-37 at home since 'Melo's arrival.

12. Indiana (62) -- Any opponent -- pro, college, whatever -- visiting the hoops hotbed of Indiana knows the difficulty of picking up a road win. After struggling at home in the 2002-03 season, the Pacers have picked up the, well, pace.

13. Seattle (58.5) -- The Sonics are one of nine teams not to have a losing record at home in any of the last five seasons. Perhaps they'll have the same success if the team moves to OKC.

14. Washington (57.6) -- Tougher than you might expect. No team attempted more free throws at home last season and attendance has been decent the past two seasons. If only Robin Ficker was still sitting courtside ...

15. L.A. Clippers (55.1) -- Better performance means a rise in enthusiasm from the fans. The Clips played to 91.2 percent capacity last season despite being the "other" team at Staples Center, and are 5-0 at home this month.

16. Golden State (51.7) -- The Warriors, like the Wizards, have an underrated home court. The fans come out (95.2 percent) and Don Nelson will keep them entertained.

17. Chicago (38.5) -- Only Detroit averaged more fans at home than the Bulls last season. A 3-38 mark in 2002-03 skews the winning percentage.

18. Boston (58) -- If the Celtics were still at the Boston Garden, we'd probably make 'em top five. But the TD Banknorth Garden just doesn't have the same ambiance.

19. Memphis (59.5) -- The Grizzlies are 87-36 at home the past three seasons, but will be easier to beat this year until Pau Gasol returns. An 85.8 percent capacity rate ranks in the bottom half of the league.

20. Milwaukee (57) -- The Bucks have reestablished their home-court presence the past three seasons after struggling in 2002-03.

21. New Jersey (71.7) -- Just five teams have been better at home the past five seasons, so why the low rating? Well, there's a reason the Nets want to move to Brooklyn.

22. Houston (60.4) -- The Rockets were the only team last season with a better road than home record. In fact, the percentage discrepancy matched the largest in NBA history.

23. Philadelphia (56.6) -- The Sixers should probably be rated higher, considering they haven't had a losing season at home since 1998. But the 78.7 percent capacity rate last season ranks in the bottom five.

24. Orlando (55.6) -- The Magic's 12-game home winning streak last season was their longest at home since the 1998-99 season.

25. New York (50.2) -- Madison Square Garden has a magical allure, and Spike Lee does his best to intimidate opponents. Alas, there's still that pesky matter of actually playing the game.

26. New Orleans/OKC (47.6) -- Splitting home bases doesn't make things easy for the Hornets. Give 'em props for a 24-17 home mark last season.

27. Portland (56.1) -- Sub-.500 home records the last two seasons and apathy at the gate (league-low 73.1 percent last season) are sad developments for a once-dominant home team.

28. Charlotte (37.8) -- The newness seems to have worn off quickly for Bobcats fans, who have already seen one NBA team leave town.

29. Toronto (45.9) -- The Raptors have an entire country to offer support. Too bad everybody's too busy watching the guys with sticks and skates.

30. Atlanta (38) -- Poor attendance. Poor performance, with four consecutive losing seasons at home. Maybe this is the team that should move to Vegas.

posted by Mike McAllister | 5 comments | Add a comment
11/07/2006 04:08:00 PM

Hitting the high notes

iverson
Can Iverson improve on his career season?
Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Is there a scientific formula to determine exactly when a NBA player's career reaches its statistical apex? I assume there is, but since my application to MIT was denied (if memory serves, the rejection notice started out as "Dear Stupid: We haven't laughed this hard in years ..."), then we'll have to make some educated guesses on a few players coming off career years.

But first, let's assume that a player's career doesn't always follow some variation of a bell curve. Sure, it appears Kevin Garnett may have topped out in 2004 when he averaged 24.2 points. And Tracy McGrady's scoring average has dipped in each of the last three seasons after he led the league with a 32.1 average in 2003. It wouldn't be surprising if their dropoffs continued, although a healthy T-Mac could improve on last year's total.

So now consider Allen Iverson and Paul Pierce. A.I. hit his scoring peak (it seemed) in 2002, dipped the next three seasons, then roared back with a 33.0 average, setting a career high in his 10th season. Pierce's seemingly high-water mark came in 2002 with a 26.1 average, which he then followed with a steady decrease the next three seasons ... until last season when he averaged a career-high 26.8 in his eighth year.

Can Iverson and Pierce -- and some of the other big names who set career highs in scoring last season -- average even bigger numbers in 2006-07?

ALLEN IVERSON: The Answer hit a career-best 44.7 percent from the field last season. If he continues to get more accurate with age (he's at nearly 50 percent in his first three games this season), then he could exceed 33 a night. But all that wear and tear has to slow him down soon, doesn't it?

PAUL PIERCE: Roster changes may alleviate the scoring burden on Pierce this season. Even so, his numbers actually improved in the second half of last season after Boston acquired Wally Szczerbiak. Pierce's ability won't determine if he has another career year; his teammates will.

DIRK NOWITZKI (26.6 average in '05-06): More focused on scoring inside and less reliant on the 3-point shot has only served to improve Nowitzki's average (oh, and being the focal point of the offense now that Steve Nash and Michael Finley are gone hasn't hurt, either). There may be a slight increase in Nowitzki's future, but it's doubtful he'll get to, say, 30 every night.

SHAWN MARION (21.8): Can he shoot 52.5 percent from the field again? Maybe not, but he'll get close. Plus, he should improve on his 80.9 percent mark from the line. Expect another career high this season, although a healthy Amare Stoudemire could siphon off some of his attempts.

KOBE BRYANT (35.4): Michael Jordan only exceeded the 35-point average once in his career. It's doubtful Kobe can do it again, especially as he gains more confidence in his teammates. But let's face it, this will come down to whether we see the selfish or the selfless Kobe this season.

STEVE NASH (18.8): He attempted 342 3-pointers, just one shy of his career high. If he keeps firing up the treys, he could average 20 a game in the high-octane Suns offense. On the flip side, there are so many other weapons -- and Nash has a nasty habit of actually setting up teammates.

ELTON BRAND (24.7): Brand failed to score more than 15 points in the Clippers' first three games this season, and twice finished in single digits. Yet the Clips won all three. A sign of the times? Brand will gladly take a reduced scoring role if it makes the Clippers more successful.

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS (18.5): The Pistons guard can become a free agent after this season, so you know he'll want to post big numbers. Plus, Detroit may have to win games with offense now that Ben Wallace is gone. But Billups will need to shoot better than he has in the first week.

Now it's your turn. Tell me which players you think will improve on their career numbers and which are due for a drop off.

posted by Mike McAllister | 35 comments | Add a comment
11/01/2006 01:57:00 PM

Triple-Double LeBron?

bulls-heat
LeBron's passing skills helped him rank 6th in the league in assists in 2004-05.
David Liam Kyle/Getty Images

Michael Jordan couldn't do it. Larry Bird couldn't do it. Magic Johnson came close but couldn't do it. So why should we think LeBron James has the potential to one day average a triple-double for a season? It might be because he's the most logical candidate the NBA has right now, a combination of scorer/rebounder/passer who has yet to reach his prime. Could LeBron, if the planets were aligned properly, provide Oscar Robertson with some company in this exclusive club?

That's what I asked SI.com's NBA writers, and their collective answer was a resounding "no." Indeed, Robertson's 1961-62 season when he averaged 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists seems like a freak occurrence, one of those statistical anomalies that defies all logic. It's a different game now, and while versatility and multi-tooled players are back in vogue, the triple-double average remains beyond anybody's reach ... even LeBron's, according to our experts.

"I don't think he can build up the assists simply because there aren't enough possessions in the modern NBA game to give James the requisite opportunities," noted Ian Thomsen. "When Oscar Robertson had his triple-double year, his Cincinnati Royals averaged 105 field goal attempts per game. Last year the NBA average was a sluggish 79 shot attempts per game -- which means that LeBron has to make do with 25 percent fewer offensive possessions than Oscar had in his faster-paced day. Over the last six years, two NBA players -- two! -- have averaged 10 or more assists per game. Steve Nash managed it each of the last two years, as did Andre Miller with Cleveland in 2001-02. That's it. Not even Jason Kidd was able to reach double-figures while pushing the tempo in his early NBA Finalist years with New Jersey. The only way James could approach the Big O's numbers would be if Cleveland emulated the Phoenix Suns and tried to amp up the number of possessions per game. But even then the Cavaliers would never approach Robertson's up-and-down pace: The Suns led the league in field-goal attempts last year, yet averaged only 87 per game."

Said Jack McCallum: "One of the forgotten great seasons in NBA history was Magic Johnson's 1981-82 campaign when he had 9.6 rebounds and 9.5 assists to go with 18.6 points. No one has come close to a triple-double since. Coaches don't want their superstars to have those Big O numbers. What Mike Brown needs from James is what he got last season (31.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists) and more scoring, rebounding and assisting from everyone else."

Chris Mannix added that "players in today's league are bigger, stronger, faster and better athletes than in Johnson or Robertson's day ... it's a far too difficult proposition, even for a player with James' skill set."

Marty Burns concluded that "it's just too much to ask of any player in today's game to take the physical pounding necessary to grab 10 boards a game. Maybe if the Cavs weren't a contending team, LeBron could go after it and make it happen. But he won't put personal stats ahead of team goals as long as he's got a chance to win the championship, and he'll probably always be on a team with legitimate title aspirations for the rest of his career."

Anybody disagree? Could LeBron even get close to a triple-double average? Or is there some other player you think is a more worthy candidate? Let's hear it.

posted by Mike McAllister | 62 comments | Add a comment
11/01/2006 12:14:00 AM

The Proper Perspective

bulls-heat
Ben Wallace's Bulls throttled Dwyane Wade and the Heat.
Doug Benc/Getty Images

Perspective, always a necessary ingredient when evaluating opening night performances, will never be needed more than on Wednesday in Chicago and Miami. Perspective will keep Bulls fans from cashing in their 401ks and driving to the nearest sports book in order to lay a heavy bet on their team to win the NBA title (20 to 1 on vegas.com, by the way). Perspective will also prevent Heat fans from demanding that team owner Micky Arison burn the championship banner that was raised to the rafters or ask his players to return those gaudy oversized rings handed out prior to Tuesday's game.

Perspective, you see, tells us that the Bulls aren't as good -- and the Heat aren't as bad -- as Chicago's 108-66 blowout win indicates. Sure, it was the worst opening-night loss ever by a defending champ (and second place isn't even close). Sure, the Heat looked old, uninterested and generally like a team that has become complacent one game into its title defense. Meanwhile, the Bulls, after some shaky shooting in the opening period, looked like a team wanting to send a message to the rest of the league. (By the way, we heard you -- loud and clear).

But I'm not sure which head coach will have the tougher job of making sure his team puts Tuesday's outcome in the right perspective.

After all, for the bad things that come with being an "old" team, which the Heat have been labeled thanks to a plethora of players on the far side of 30, one good thing is that veterans know how to treat an embarrassing loss. Consider what happened last February when Miami lost by 36 points at Dallas. The Heat didn't agonize over the loss, but used it as fuel to crank up their championship campaign. They won their next 10 games and found their confidence in time for the playoffs. Oh, and they beat Dallas on that very same court in June to win the NBA title. Perhaps the 42-point loss to Chicago might actually provide a bit of motivation if the two teams meet again in the postseason.

Pat Riley will say all the right things about the loss to the Bulls, and he may be even more quick to pull the trigger on signing Jalen Rose, whose agent has been in contact with Riley after the veteran was waived by the Knicks. But Riley knows you don't throw a temper tantrum after Game 1, no matter how ugly it looked -- and make no mistake, it was a putrid effort. That "15 Strong" slogan the Heat used as a rallying cry for team unity during the playoffs turned into "15 Wrong" before a bewildered home crowd Tuesday, which went from celebrating last season's triumph to bailing out fast enough to catch the last part of House.

Chicago coach Scott Skiles, on the other hand, has a much younger team, one that will be more prone to rise and fall on its emotions. No doubt the Bulls will gain much confidence in starting out with a big win, but this is a club that still faces major challenges just to survive through November. Nine of its next 12 games are on the road, including the tough Texas swing, and none of those opponents will be distracted by a 25-minute ring ceremony before tipoff that left Heat players oogling their newly acquired jewelry instead of getting into game-focus mode. And make no mistake -- the Bulls' cohesion wasn't fully developed in one night, despite all the nice fast breaks, give-and-gos and weakside-help defense on display Tuesday. Eight new faces are on this year's Bulls roster, and not everything will work as smooth as it did in Miami.

Just remember -- Tuesday's game was the first of 1,230 NBA games this regular season. And while a Bulls-Heat opener may have more significance than say, Hawks at Trail Blazers on Dec. 3 (ok, make that will have), it's doubtful 108-66 will have an impact on which team wins the title next June.

Then again, the Bulls did look awfully good ...

So speaking of perspective, now it's your turn. What are your thoughts on opening night?

posted by Mike McAllister | 81 comments | Add a comment
10/12/2006 12:36:00 PM

Jackson's negative shooting

jackson
Jackson may be throwing up his hands, but it's the Pacers and the league who are feeling frustrated.
AP

The timing couldn't have worked out any worse for the NBA. Just after the league announces its zero-tolerance policy for players and coaches who react excessively to referees' calls, Pacers guard Stephen Jackson gets hit with a felony charge for shooting a gun during a recent fight outside a strip club. Suddenly, being T'd-up doesn't seem like a big deal for a player who apparently won't hesitate to fire his 9 mm into the air five times.

The NBA, of course, wants to clean up its image, hoping to avoid a repeat of the Pacers-Pistons brawl fallout that still resonates two years later. Unfortunately, for all the goodwill the league creates -- its NBA Cares program that has raised $100 million for charity, its Read To Achieve and Basketball Without Borders events, its summer tour of the Far East and its preseason games in Europe -- a loose cannon like Jackson can overshadow it with one stupid, hellish headline-capturing incident in which the only positive was that no one was shot.

What can the NBA and the Pacers do about it? Nothing really. A Jackson conviction -- he faces six months to three years in jail on the felony charge -- would get the Pacers off the hook. But if he's acquitted, then he remains under contract and the Pacers would return him to the lineup, creating a public relations nightmare that Indiana is all too familiar with from the Ron Artest days.

Reggie Miller, for so long the face of the Pacers franchise, has a right to be angry with Jackson and his three teammates for creating this "black cloud." The Pacers and Trail Blazers are the league's two biggest embarrassments, each running their own brand of Prison (Fast) Break. Thanks to Jackson, Indiana has just taken the lead.

Will the NBA's crackdown on on-court behavior have a ripple effect off it? Not likely. Jackson's temper certainly has been displayed time and time again the past couple of seasons -- in that brawl with the Pistons for which he was suspended 30 games; for abusing an official in February 2005, resulting in a one-game suspension; for arguing a call last December in which he was fined $20,000 (and the call wasn't even against him!). Those penalties obviously didn't mellow him.

Perhaps if the frequency of technicals and ejections increase and teams feel a constant rotation crunch, then they might be less inclined to keep a hot-headed player on the roster. But someone like Jackson, who has averaged nearly 18 points a game the past three seasons, unfortunately will always find some team desperate enough to give him a contract.

And even if Jackson's convicted and is sent to jail, don't be surprised that, upon his release, he returns to fire up shots for another NBA team. Hmm, unfortunate choice of words there.

So what's your take on Jackson? Do he and other NBA players with "character issues" ruin the game for you? Or have you become immune to such negatives? Is there any way the NBA can solve this problem? Let me hear it.

posted by Mike McAllister | 92 comments | Add a comment
10/10/2006 02:54:00 PM

Pay Darko now or later?

usa fan
Milicic hopes to make Brian Hill a happy coach in Orlando.
AP

Thanks to an offseason weightlifting program, Darko Milicic has bulked up, reportedly adding 20-25 pounds of muscle to his 7-foot frame. Now the question becomes: Will he shed the weight of all those expectations that have become so heavy since he was drafted second overall in 2003?

During his 2-1/2 year tenure in Detroit, Milicic received more grief than playing time. His development was of secondary concern to a Pistons club focused on the immediate goal of winning titles. But last February's trade to Orlando gave him a fresh start and significant minutes on a younger team with long-range aspirations and more patience.

Then at this summer's World Championships in Japan, he had a breakthrough performance with his Serbia & Montenegro team, averaging 16.1 points and 9.3 rebounds while holding his own against the best international players. With a bigger, stronger body and a chance at moving into the Magic's starting lineup alongside Dwight Howard, he appears poised to have a breakout season.

But for now, it's OK to remain skeptical about Milicic. After all, the Magic appear to be. Faced with signing Milicic to a extension or waiting until next summer when his contract ends and he becomes a free agent (the Magic will have first-refusal rights), GM Otis Smith has indicated he wants to judge the 21-year-old's worth on more than the 30 games he played in Orlando last season.

Wise move, but it'll prove costly if Milicic matches his Japan numbers this season. Smith, however, seems willing to pay a premium for a proven Milicic as opposed to rolling the dice now on one who remains an enigma. Of course, judging a player in his contract year also has its own risks, since his motivation might disappear as soon as he inks that big-money deal.

So what would you do? Would you rather lock in Milicic now at what would probably be a cheaper rate or hold off and see how he performs for a full year? Or do you still consider Milicic a bust who'll never make a significant impact for a contending team?

posted by Mike McAllister | 79 comments | Add a comment
9/29/2006 04:28:00 PM

How Far Can Rockets Go?

usa fan
McGrady's pointing to a brighter future now that Wells is on board.
AP

Can a team that finished last in its division a year ago now be considered the favorite to reach the NBA Finals out of the Western Conference this season?

No. Expecting the Houston Rockets to make that kind of leap may be asking too much, especially in the Southwest, the most loaded division in the league. But adding Bonzi Wells to a lineup that already features two All-Star starters certainly means the Rockets should finish in the 50-60 win range this season ... provided, of course, those star players stay healthy. As last season suggests, that's a big if.

But forget the impact that Wells (and the other key acquisition, Shane Battier) will make during the regular season. Whether the Rockets finish first or last in the West doesn't really matter. The key here is that if the Wells-Yao Ming-Tracy McGrady threesome is clicking going into the playoffs, absolutely no one will want any part of the Rockets.

Wells was a playoff monster last year, averaging 23.2 points and 12 rebounds in the Kings' six-game first-round loss to the Spurs. McGrady, you'll recall, was an even bigger playoff monster the year before, averaging 30.7 points and 7.4 rebounds in a seven-game loss to the Mavs.

Upon reaching the playoffs next spring, both players will be properly motivated. For Wells, it will be for financial reasons -- to make up for misreading the market this offseason when he turned down a five-year $37 million offer from the Kings, ultimately settling for a two-year, $4.5 million deal with the Rockets in which he can opt out after this season. Wells will need another huge playoff performance (and will need to remain on his best behavior) in order to attract a big-money deal.

T-Mac, meanwhile, will simply want to get past the first round, something he has yet to achieve in five previous playoff appearances. Against the Mavs in 2005, he didn't have the supporting crew he does now (Wells, Battier, an improved Yao). If he averages 30 and 7 again, the Rockets should have no trouble advancing this time.

In 1999, Jeff Van Gundy's Knicks became the first 8th seed to advance to the NBA Finals. If Van Gundy's Rockets finish 8th in the West this year, a similar run wouldn't be as big a surprise.

But let me hear from you. Do the Rockets have what it takes to reach the Finals? Or will depth and health still be a problem this season?

posted by Mike McAllister | 140 comments | Add a comment
9/11/2006 12:14:00 PM

Charles in charge?

Charles Barkley
Is Barkley already working the trade phones?
AP

One day, Charles Barkley wants to rule the state of Alabama as governor -- which seems like a preposterous thought until these two words pop into mind: Arnold Schwarzenegger. But until Sir Charles takes the oath of office in Montgomery (the earliest he can be voted in is 2014), he'd like to sharpen his leadership skills by working as an NBA general manager.

Never mind the fact that running a team in which the average player salary will be $5.215 million this season seems like an extremely odd way to prepare for running a state that ranks in the bottom 10 in median household income ($38,111, according to the 2004 U.S. Census Bureau). If Barkley can successfully bridge those two ends of the economic scale, then maybe he needs to think higher (President Barkley, anyone?).

Upon hearing of the newly minted Hall of Famer's GM aspirations, my knee-jerk reaction was that no NBA team is that desperate, right? Obviously, Barkley's playing skills were good enough to land him in Springfield, but his bull-in-a-china-shop approach on the court wouldn't appear to translate into a front-office position, where matters such as player negotiations and salary-cap issues need to be handled with a higher degree of subtlety and nuance.

Plus, Barkley hasn't exactly shown a propensity for restraint when dealing with hot-button issues. Yes, he'd make for great soundbites in the media, but players might quickly turn on him if Charles keeps aiming critical shock-value barbs their way. He'll need to learn how to handle matters without letting his mouth roar; it's a 180-degree approach from the one currently working for him on TV.

Even in discussing his biggest strength -- his ability to assess talent -- Barkley couldn't help but offer a dig at Knicks president of basketball operations/coach Isiah Thomas. "The game comes down to talent," Barkley told reporters during the Hall of Fame weekend. "Ain't no great coaches unless they've got great players. Ask Larry. Larry Brown's a great coach, but not with that s&*% he had this year."

Hmm, guess Barkley can go ahead and cross the Knicks off his list as a potential trade partner.

Jerry West and Joe Dumars have shown that Hall of Fame players can be successful in running NBA teams. Thomas and Elgin Baylor have shown it's not always a slam dunk. Which category would Barkley fit in if he does indeed leave the safety of the TV booth and land a GM job? It's your turn to chime in.

posted by Mike McAllister | 47 comments | Add a comment
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