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Get inside March Madness with SI.com's Luke Winn in the Tourney Blog, a daily journal of college basketball commentary, on-site reporting and reader-driven discussions.
3/23/2006 04:40:00 PM

Geeked Up For Tonight

ATLANTA -- We're less than three hours to tipoff at the Georgia Dome. Let's look at Duke-LSU in nerd-vision and see what the statistics yield (remember, tempo is possessions per 40 minutes, offensive efficiency is points per 100 possessions, defensive efficiency is points given up per 100 possessions, and all stats are the latest from kenpom.com):

Team   Tempo (Rk.)  OEff. (Rk.)  DEff. (Rk.) 
Duke 72.3 (25) 119.5 (1) 89.5 (17)
LSU 69.8 (88) 111.1 (39) 87.7 (9)
* Rk. is national ranking in all of D-I
WHAT IT MEANS: The Blue Devils and Tigers play at similar speeds and have nearly equal defenses -- but Duke's offense is significantly more efficient. It would be in LSU's best interest to slow the game down and minimize the gap.

Now, let's examine it from a point-distribution angle (all figures are percentages) when each team has the ball:

When Duke has the ball
          FTs          2s           3s
Duke-Off 23.6 (22) 48.3 (266) 28.1 (157)
LSU-Def 15.1 (326) 54.8 (66) 30.2 (99)
WHAT IT MEANS: The Blue Devils intend to draw far more fouls than LSU typically commits. The refs -- and the Tigers' level of defensive restraint -- will play a huge role.

When LSU has the ball
           FTs          2s           3s
LSU-Off 20.6 (143) 62.2 (4) 17.3 (333)
Duke-Def 16.6 (301) 65.7 (1) 17.7 (334)
WHAT IT MEANS: Now this is important. The points that the Blue Devils typically yield are arrayed almost exactly how LSU would prefer to score, which is a great thing for the Tigers. They live mainly off of 2s, where the Blue Devils are weakest, and hardly at all off of 3s, where Duke is the stingiest squad in the nation.

We'll revisit this data at the end of the night. If the Tigers follow their standard game plan and keep the pace slow, an upset will be in the works. If LSU's guards can't run the offense through Big Baby, and Duke pushes the tempo, the Blue Devils will win in a rout.
posted by Luke Winn | View comments |  

9 Comments:

Posted: 9:50 PM   by GOTIGERS
What it mean is ..............

LSU BEAT DUKE!!!!! GO TIGERS!!!!!
Posted: 9:53 PM   by Anonymous
Game exactly as it should have for LSU, by your numbers. Good coaching by LSU, shows defense wins the big one. You gotta realize from watching the game though that Duke was physically overmatched on all fronts. That's the disadvantage of playing for an academic school I guess.
Posted: 10:02 PM   by Anonymous
You called it!
Posted: 10:20 PM   by Anonymous
Go tigers. I didn't give them a chance and I live in La. Texas plays a similar style of play as Duke, so that could be a close game as well. Sorry W.V.
Posted: 11:23 PM   by LSU FEVER
Duke will wini in a route? All you experts know nothing. LSU won the outright SEC title and dont even get respect in our own con. Its Bruce Pearl this and Tenn. that. WE know who the real team in the SEC and now the nation is. GO TIGERS
Posted: 11:32 PM   by LSU FEVER
Were not just football baby. We are the sec champs. I know the media thinks Tenn. won it. Because all you here is Bruce Pearl this and that. We beat them by 2 games and 14 points. Now the nation knows
Posted: 1:48 AM   by Anonymous
Ah yes . . after the Tigers beat Duke I told my spouse "when I read the blogs . . someone from Duke will post that the reason they lost was their superior academics" Spouse said "nah" but here it is . . twice.

Arrogance is one thing. Deserved arrogance, particularly in academics, is quite another. Such a dream world y'all live in . . .

LSU won. Period.

Maybe next year you can flash your entering Frosh SAT scores in the second round . . . better than your faculty rankings (at least in my field).

Until then . . live with it without the undeserved academic arrogance so typical of Duke fans.

Geaux Tigres!
Posted: 1:31 PM   by Anonymous
I think the Tiger fans should rise above being sore winners. I don't think the pundit's prediction of a Duke rout, should the game's tempo become helter skelter, was a slam against LSU. Remember, he did say if LSU slowed things down slightly, and played their normal tough "D" and their usual inside "O", they'd be in a good position to score an upset.

As regards some poster saying Duke's high academic standards hurt them versus LSU, I will submit that virtually ALL of the players involved in last night's game (including the Duke players)would not normally be admitted into Duke. Duke does things the "right" way and, as far as I know, Brady & LSU have been doing things "right", during his tenure, too.

I think the kudos thrown Pearl's way are deserved. No slight to Brady, but he has vastly superior talent (due to his recruiting ability and the fact Pearl arrived too late to recruit) and an inferior in-conference schedule (not his fault). Brady deserves credit for how he's turned the program around, though, and brought it back from when he was hamstrung by the previous admin's violations. Not many schools could withstand the loss of someone like Brandon Bass (Conference Player of Year) to early-NBA entry and come back stronger than ever.

LSU won the game, fair & square. They DID have some superior athletes and their players made some key plays and seem like a bunch of nice young men. Good for them.
Posted: 12:57 AM   by Anonymous
Anonymous:

I think you are right, sadly, about admissions and both coaches doing it "right." I am not sure what that says about deference to athletes on admissions, but I will forever remain convinced that attempting to predict the academic success of ANY student with artificial barriers such as "admission standards" is risky at best and potentially inefficient and inequitable at worst. We just don't know the "winners" and "losers" a priori and I'm not sure we have the right system based on profiling in place. We muddle through I guess.

I also think that turning a sport blog into a debate about comparative academic stature is inappropriate, particularly when used as a "sour grapes" perspective on a basketball game loss because one team was from an "academic" instition and another was from (what are we to surmise there . . that LSU is not?) Sour winner I may be as a Tiger fan, but it was way out of line.

There are other blogs for ranking schools in academics.

All that said, I liked your comments a lot, enjoyed the game, and have respect for both schools.

Well done.
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