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Get inside March Madness with SI.com's Luke Winn in the Tourney Blog, a daily journal of college basketball commentary, on-site reporting and reader-driven discussions.
The Block That (Almost) Saved BC
Hakim Warrick, your block has been equaled. The clock had nearly run out on regulation in Villanova-BC, and there was Wildcats guard Kyle Lowry, standing alone on the right wing, ready to end the game. The ball was in his hands, the score was 51-51, and he was about to launch a buzzer-beating 3. Eagles center Sean Williams was in the far side of the lane when Lowry caught the ball, seemingly an impossible distance from which to make a defensive play. And yet, with two-and-half long strides, and needing every inch of his 6-foot-11 frame -- right down to his fingertips -- Williams made up the ground, deflecting Lowry's shot with the end of his left hand as the clock read 0.7 seconds. The ball fell harmlessly into the hands of Jared Dudley as the buzzer sounded, forcing overtime, and Craig Smith ran straight for Williams to celebrate. A friend called my hotel in Atlanta to relay details via TiVo; "In fast motion," he said, "that play is stupid."
Stupid, as in, awe-inspiring. LSU's Darrel Mitchell, Texas' Kenton Paulino and Northwestern State's Jermaine Wallace have all become crunch-time offensive heroes in this NCAA tournament, but Williams' block was the clutch defensive play of the dance. Icing Over In Minneapolis
Villanova went 0-for-9 on 3-pointers in the first half against Boston College -- a crazy stat that throws our by-the-numbers preview all out of whack. The Wildcats averaged 9.0 made treys per game in 2005-06, and their season-low 3-point total is four, which occurred against Seton Hall (Jan. 17) and St. Joe's (Feb. 7). 'Nova won both of those games -- but BC, which leads 28-24 at the break, is a whole different animal than the Pirates and Hawks. The Statistical Crystal Ball, Take TwoMy LSU pick (in our regional breakdowns from Tuesday) was based heavily on this point-distribution spread compiled from kenpom.com, pitting the Tigers' offense versus the Blue Devils' defense: When LSU has the ball (all figures are percentages, with national rankings in parentheses) FTs 2s 3sLSU had the perfect offense for Duke's D -- on the season, the Tigers have scored 82.8 percent of their points on twos and free throws, and rarely ever launch 3s. The Tigers made just two treys in a brutal offensive game (they shot 39.3 percent to Duke's 27.7), and the defense of Garrett Temple and Tyrus Thomas neutralized the Blue Devils' large advantage in offensive efficiency (119.5 to 111.1). With that out of the way, let's move on to arguably tonight's biggest game: No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 4 Boston College in Minneapolis. First, examine how the teams stack up in tempo and efficiency (tempo is possessions per 40 minutes, offensive efficiency is points per 100 possessions, and defensive efficiency is points given up per 100 possessions): Team Tempo (Rk.) OEff. (Rk.) DEff. (Rk.)WHAT IT MEANS: The idea that 'Nova will run BC off the floor with its four-guard offense is incorrect, at least statistically. The Wildcats are only 4.2 possessions per game faster than the Eagles -- and the two teams' offenses are almost identical in their levels of efficiency. Where BC falls apart is its defense, which is significantly worse -- 7.5 points per 100 possessions -- than 'Nova's. Here's how the point-distribution percentages are arrayed (with national rankings in parentheses): When Villanova has the ball: FTs 2s 3sWHAT IT MEANS: 'Nova's offense, which relies on 3s more than any team left in the bracket (at 36.1 percent), doesn't take advantage of BC's weakness -- which is giving up twos, even though it has Craig Smith and Sean Williams inside. When BC has the ball: FTs 2s 3sWHAT IT MEANS: BC's offense -- just like LSU's last night against Duke -- is perfectly suited to its opponent. The Wildcats won't be able to take the Eagles out of their traditional game plan. THE FINAL WORD: Offensively, BC is well-positioned to knock off the second No. 1 seed of the dance. The Eagles have been just as efficient at scoring as 'Nova has -- even if BC hasn't received nearly as much publicity -- and they have an advantage of the glass. There is still one, glaring problem: The Eagles, unlike LSU, are not sound on D, and 'Nova happens to be the second-best offensive squad (after Duke) that BC has faced all season. After the Thursday-night knockout of Gonzaga, the Eagles are now the worst defensive team, efficiency-wise, left in the NCAA tournament. And that, I fear, will be their downfall. The Day To End All Days?
ATLANTA -- It's far too late, and I've posted too many times already, but I'm still riding an emotional high. Fans, can you believe everything that happened Thursday? I watched, courtside, as LSU knocked off No. 1-ranked Duke. And two hours later, from the same seat, saw Kenton Paulino's buzzer-beating 3 send West Virginia packing. I'm sitting here in the hotel viewing computer-video replays of UCLA's absurd comeback -- from down 17 -- to beat Gonzaga in Oakland, Calif., and Gus Johnson's "Un-believable"s are blasting out of my laptop speakers. K.P. For 3, And Texas Advances
ATLANTA -- How could anyone be laughing at him now? Kenton Paulino, the surprise toast of Texas after drilling the buzzer-beating 3-pointer that sunk West Virginia, 74-71, was walking to the postgame press conference alongside teammates LaMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker, when the 6-foot-11 Aldridge stopped, looked down at the 6-1 guard, and doubled over giggling. "KP! Your face!" Aldridge said, incredulously. "Did you really make that shot?" |
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