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Get inside March Madness with SI.com's Luke Winn in the Tourney Blog, a daily journal of college basketball commentary, on-site reporting and reader-driven discussions.
Defending Your Bracket Redux
In the name of accountability, the post I promised to revisit leading up to the Final Four was called "Defending Your Bracket," from March 13. It was an attempt to help poolsters identify the highly seeded NCAA tournament teams that didn't fit the profile of an Elite Eight team -- and avoid slotting them for deep runs in the dance. Team Rd. Off. Eff. Def. Eff.And here's the 2005 Elite Eight: Team Rd. Off. Eff. Def. Eff.Based on this data, I tried to pinpoint teams that were vulnerable in the 2006 bracket because of their weak defenses. Three examples from the 2005 bracket were used to back up that theory -- LSU, Gonzaga and Wake Forest. All were highly seeded teams with defensive efficiency ratings outside the top 75 that suffered earlier-than-expected exits: '05 Team Off. Eff Def. Eff. OutThen, I compiled a list of the six teams seeded Nos. 2-6 that looked similarly vulnerable in '06 -- and theorized that no more than one or two of them were likely to make the Elite Eight: '06 Team Off. Eff. Def. Eff. OutHow accurate was the theory? Well, not a single member of that offensive-minded club advanced past the Sweet 16. And three of them (Oklahoma, Michigan State and Tennessee) were upset in the first weekend. Solid returns, I'd say. The profile of the 2006 Elite Eight further supports the argument. It took defense to an extreme: Nary a team from outside the top 15 in defensive efficiency made the cut. Team Rd. Off. Eff. Def. Eff.Of the 2006 Final Four, only one (Florida) is an offensive juggernaut, and three (UF, LSU and UCLA) are in the top-10 defensively. And on this plane, Mason doesn't look nearly as much like a Cinderella: The Patriots were ranked No. 15 on D. "Defending Your Bracket" worked out rather well. This tournament will long be remembered for the stunning successes of mid-majors, but more quietly, it was defined by defense. A New Level Of Improbability
Of all the mind-boggling circumstances surrounding George Mason's run to the Final Four ... the fact that a bubble team from the Colonial Athletic Association (or the Connecticut Assassin's Association, if you listen to Jim Larranaga) just beat Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn; or that the Patriots did it as a No. 11 seed, tying 1986 LSU for the honor of lowest seed ever to make the NCAA tournament's last weekend; or that GMU did all this without any true NBA prospects on its roster ... this one is the most amazing: |
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