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Get inside March Madness with SI.com's Luke Winn in the Tourney Blog, a daily journal of college basketball commentary, on-site reporting and reader-driven discussions.
Piecing Together The Final FourHow does one build the representative body of this year's Final Four? With these 10 parts:
Readers, what pieces were left out? Chime in via the comments section. Previews In The Raw, Part I
It wouldn't be prudent to abandon the numbers now. I'm going to ride this statistical business 'til the end, and offer Final Four previews in the raw, without mentioning the glass slippers, ponytails, Big Babies or revived powerhouses. And since there have been complaints -- namely, that stats don't take heart into consideration -- I'll tell you which way my heart is leaning, too. Team Tempo Off Eff. Def. Eff.What it means: This is probably going to be the slowest game LSU plays in the NCAA tournament, with even fewer total possessions than there were against Texas A&M or Texas. The Bruins, at 63.4 possessions per 40 minutes, are the most methodical team left in the bracket, and were the seventh-slowest squad entering the whole tournament (after Air Force, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Utah State and Boston College). Beyond the difference in tempo (painfully slow versus mildly slow), UCLA and LSU are very much alike -- both have decent offenses that are carried by the best two defenses left in the tournament. The bottom line: When this one turns into an ugly slugfest, don't act shocked. The next step is to examine tendencies when either team has the ball, by comparing point-distribution figures (all percentages) for the season: When UCLA has the ball: Team FTs 2s 3sWhat it means: The Tigers are a balanced defensive team with stoppers on the perimeter (Garrett Temple) and interior (Tyrus Thomas and Glen Davis), and they don't let opponents beat them on the free-throw line (where they allow just 15.2 percent of their points). There are no great stat-gaps here, other than that the Bruins average 20.0 percent of their scoring from the stripe. Will they be able to draw whistles, or will their shots just get swatted by Thomas? When LSU has the ball: Team FTs 2s 3sWhat it means: It's an excellent matchup for LSU. Because while UCLA has the best D still in the tourney, it mainly excels on the perimeter, giving up just 23.5 percent of its points from beyond the arc due to pressure on shooters from guards Arron Afflalo, Jordan Farmar and swingman Cedric Bozeman. This will have little effect on the Tigers, who are now, officially, the squad that relies on fewer 3-pointers than anyone else in the entire, 334-team ranks of Division I. The Tigers' offensive game plan barely takes the 3-point line into consideration. Which brings us to ... the pick: UCLA is slightly more efficient on both sides of the ball, but the difference is too small to matter. Even though the Bruins are the best overall defensive team LSU has faced all year, the Tigers just defeated a stellar D (Texas') in the Elite Eight, and their offense is better-suited to score against the Bruins than it was against the 'Horns. LSU by two. And the "heart" pick?: It happens to be nearly identical. LSU is such a tight-knit team built from Baton Rouge-area talent -- "Brothers from another mother," Davis says -- that it's not going to crumble on the big stage. Embattled Louisiana residents deserve some positive news, and State U will bring it to them in the form of a trip to Monday's title game. LSU by four. Heart adds another basket. |
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