Luke, it is good to see that you have jumped on the A&M bandwagon this year! WTAW!!!!

Luke,

Interesting call on the part of Vegas. Looks like a good time to bet against Florida (at least to win it all; Final Four appearance is still plausible).

In my other posts, I've already noted that Florida hasn't played very many good teams this year (3-1 vs. top 25 in 2007, 6-4 vs. top 25 in 2006; makes the 5 losses look more worrisome).

I've also noted that it looks like there's a lot more parity this year than last among the top 10. And that the top 10 look stronger overall, relative to the rest of the field than before.

What does this mean for Florida?

Well, partly that depends on Florida itself. How does Florida rate statistically from last year to this year?

There's no reason to suppose the statistics would differ, so let's look up the numbers. Is this team better or worse?

According to kenpom.com, Florida is posting better numbers than last year. But so are everyone else. Florida's offensive rating was 119.4 in 2006 (which placed it #2, but would only rate #9 this year). Florida's defensive rating was 87.2 in 2006 (which placed it #5, but would only rate #19 this year).

Florida has improved 3.2 points on offense to 122.6 and improved 0.7 points on defense to 86.5 but has dropped 1 ranking on offense and 6 rankings on defense. If I go back to your table on the O and D ratings of champions, Florida today looks a lot like a Texas (2006), Illinois (2005), or Oklahoma State (2004), none of which quite made it over the top.

On my improvised scale of adding the O and D rankings, discussed in other posts, Florida now rates a 14, which is 2nd and in a close race with two teams tied for 3rd at 15, instead of being well out in front in 1st as it was last year.

It's important to note that Florida's opponents' O and D ratings are identical from 2006 to 2007 (106.7 v. 106.8; 98.3 v. 98.5), so that hasn't impacted the change.

Another interesting indicator of the shift in relative strength toward the top: in last year's rankings, neither the #1 offense nor the #1 defense were in the top 10 overall. This year, both are.

Hey Luke, it's that me- that kid that sat next to you at the Gary-Southshore RailCats game last summer. I just wanted to tell you that Georgetown is winning it all. But don't sleep on Notre Dame. Go RailCats!!!

Psh, they don't even have Weber State on there. Everyone knows that they're going to win:p

Buckeyes. I know everyone loves Texas A&M for the south, but that's based upon the youth of the Buckeyes. Actually, they are starting to play and lead like seniors. Bucks are playing great D and have great depth. I see the Buckeyes over A&M in a close one. Also, you mention that Vegas loves TA&M, but they actually favor the Buckeyes heavily for the final four. TA&M is not even the strongest 2 in the stats in your article!

Nice work, Luke. It would be interesting to see a similar chart of odds from LAST YEAR's tourney teams. What were George Mason's odds?

--MAB

TAMU is a 3 - no surpise that it's favored over Memphis, the 2 in the same region.

Boy! The Memphis Tigers are really going to p*** some people off this tourney. Hee Hee!

KU getting no love as a 1 seed.
There depth, ability to play any type of game, and there 5-8 NBA prospects(over the next 3-4 years) will win the title.

FINAL FOUR...KANSAS OVER OREGON....GEORGETOWN OVER TEXAS A&M.....KANSAS OVER GEORGETOWN