Interesting that Xavier was one of the four unluckiest in both of the last two seasons, and that WVU qualifies for two of the three (including this season).

You can't make the argument for coaching as the cause, considering Beilein headed one of those "unlucky" years and Huggins the other. Perhaps it's a reflection of the players' (in)ability to come through in the crunch? Xavier seems to scuttle that theory, as they've got six upperclassmen on the roster and are all the way up to a 71st-place ranking in the luck metrics.

Either way, an interesting look at Pomeroy's data.

"correlated gaussian" is a fancy way for saying that the noise around the win-loss margin is a "bell curve" and, all things being equal, wins and losses should be distributed the same on either side. "Unlucky" is saying that they were on the loss side more than the "normal" or average number of times. Of course, we know that there are a lot of unmeasurable factors at that critical point - ref calls (look at UCLA vs Cal recently...talk about LUCK!); injuries; motivation and energy, depth of the bench; confidence; "meat necklaces"...the list is long.

The point is, however, that this stuff is NOT distributed equally, nor like a bell-curve. But, someone looking for a fun degree or livelihood put numbers on "luck" and a fancy name, and voila! Instant bafflegab.

If the game is close enough, or one team gets fat and happy while the other gets motivated, or there is a critical foul or injury, any team can win on a given day. That's why we love the game!

Hey Luke, I got a question about the Big-12 and the "bubble watch"...

Baylor has a higher RPI than KState (the "Beasley Boys"), and has beaten TXAM (and has a higher win percentage). TXAM meanwhile has beaten KState, Oklahoma, and Texas (all "locks" for the Dance). All of this in the conference w/the #2 conf. RPI and #2 conf. strength of schedule. But, TXAM has a 50/50 record in the conference (thanks to a 50T loss to...you know it! - Baylor!). What do you think? One more win each in the Big-12 opening, and good showings in the 2nd round...are they in? Or is it NIT-bound for both?

this is pure crap. pomeroy is pure crap. he uses a bunch of fancy stat terms to disguise the fact that he ranks people based on the way he likes them. he hates the SEC and it shows in his rankings. He just hides it behind statistical jargon. I am glad its tourney time so the overhyped jr. varsity schools like xavier, drake, butler, gonzaga, etc. can get their ass kicked and go home where some moron like pomeroy will invent some other subjective ranking for next year.